UT Playoff Path and Pitfalls (Post Week 11)

[Behr]

By the way, great idea for a thread. Surprised nobody thought of it sooner.

 

[RavinDave]

For anyone that thinks Tennessee is a lock if they win out is still in for a big letdown if certain things were to happen. Believe it or not, they still need help IMO.

I'm going to outline their path and potential pitfalls below.

First and most obvious, UT must win the last two games against USCjr and Vandy. There's about a 98% chance they'll do that but it's still one of the obvious things that has to be done.

Secondly, and I think the biggest potential landmine to clear, is for Georgia to win out. Pundits are already hyping up LSU with two losses. There would be paths that LSU did not make the playoffs with two losses but I can guarantee you that if the path was clear otherwise (2 loss conference champs from the Pac 12 and ACC and TCU to lose a game) then UGA and LSU would both likely be in and they absolutely 1000% would not take 3 SEC teams so Tennessee would be out.

I've been saying that the Ohio State and Michigan game really needs to be a blowout either way. A blowout in favor of OSU would assure Michigan is toast. But a close game and other weirdness could get Michigan in the backdoor. I do have a wee bit of faith that the committee would take Tennessee over Michigan if they were having to choose between them but I would definitely be apprehensive of it. Now, if Michigan eeks out a win versus Ohio State I'm about 80% certain the committee would give OSU the nod over UT if they were both fighting for the 4th spot. And it's not because UT wouldn't deserve to be in but rather then it would be "SEC fatigue" and the committee wanting to show that if they take 2 teams from one conference it doesn't have to be 2 teams from the SEC.

TCU still really needs to lose. Them winning out makes Tennessee's path very hard. There would still be scenarios that UT misses the playoff even with a TCU loss. One of them would involve LSU beating UGA in the SECCG. But TCU losing is still very important and if they win out it becomes exponentially more complicated for UT to make the final 4.

Oregon got clipped but there are still threats out west. USC and UCLA either with only one loss would very likely jump Tennessee in the final standings. There's a lot of talk among the ESPN's of the world - and if you think their opinion doesn't matter I hate to tell you - that if USC/UCLA runs the table and win out they "deserve" a spot in the CFB playoff. Oregon losing was a big deal but USC still has only 1 loss and an inside track if they win out.

Do NOT sleep on the ACC champion either. I'm not putting it past a committee that changes their minds on a whim to really make the statement at the end of the season - everything else be damned - that a 1 loss conference champion deserves a spot in the CFB playoffs over a 1 loss non-conference winner. Clemson and North Carolina could either one sneak in and pass UT in the final standings if that happens.

The best scenario for UT is: UGA wins out, OSU beats down Michigan and wins out, TCU loses, and the Pac 12 OR ACC conference champion winds up with 2 losses.

That would put the CFB final standings IMO: 1) OSU 2) UGA 3) ACC/Pac 12 1 loss conference champion 4) Tennessee. My reasoning here is they'd swap OSU and UGA to keep UGA/UT from playing a first round game next year kind of like they've done in the past with UGA/Bama. Or it would be UGA 1, OSU 2, Tennessee 3, and ACC/Pac 12 1 loss conference champion as 4. Either way - just keeping UT/UGA away from each other in the first round.

UGA losing in the SECCG is a disaster scenario and IMO UT is out no matter what at that point as long as LSU is just a 2 loss conference champion. They'll leap UT with 2 losses and the committee would keep UGA in also.

TCU winning out makes UT in the mix for the 4th spot and in a big danger zone. In that scenario you really need OSU to destroy Michigan and BOTH the Pac 12 and ACC conference champions to have 2 losses. In that scenario the playoffs IMO would be 1) OSU 2) UGA 3) TCU 4) Tennessee

If either the Pac 12 or ACC has a champ with only one loss with undefeated teams of UGA, OSU, and TCU I think UT has a better shot at making it with a 1 loss ACC champion but I wouldn't put money on them getting in over a 1 loss ACC winner either. But still a much better shot than staying ahead of a 1 loss Pac 12 champ of either USC/UCLA.

There's another scenario where UGA wins out and TCU loses where UT could still be in trouble. That's if Michigan wins close over OSU and there's a 1 loss Pac 12 or ACC champion on the table also. Because they could go with something like 1) UGA 2) Michigan 3) USC/Clemson/UNC 4) Ohio State

Usually these things work themselves out and luckily Oregon got clipped to take them out of the equation this weekend. But there's still a lot of players left on the field that could stand in the way of UT making it to the CFB Playoffs. The biggest threat (which is so bizarre since we smoked them) is LSU winning out and beating UGA. That would lock UT out no matter what happens otherwise because they aren't putting 3 SEC teams in a 4 team playoff. It's just not going to happen.

And finally - this is all message board discussion and just my opinion. I'm not hanging on every word every pundit says but I really think if you are of the opinion that UT is in as long as they win out you could be in for a big letdown. I'm prepared for a scenario where they are the first or second team left out even with only one loss. And they'd be in the Sugar Bowl. And you know what? With the way things have went for over a decade yes it would be disappointing to not make the CFB playoff with only one loss but life goes on. And it would still have been an amazing year for UT football. Being back on the big stage and having a fun team to watch that can beat anyone on any given Saturday has made me realize why I have stuck by this team through the likes of Precious, the Trumpet Humper, and Coach Gomer.

You should write a book.

 

[SpookyAction]

The obstacles to us making the playoffs are significant.
But
I think, if we do get in, we will be matched to play UGA in the elimination round. That way there is a guarantee of one team in the championship game not from the SEC.

I think the chips can fall our way because viewers like watching our games and most other contenders each have the high potential to be disqualified.

I welcome the rematch either in the elimination or championship round.

 

[OrangeEtBlanc]

Removed from CFP competition yesterday:

Oregon
UCLA
Ole Miss
Alabama (really already out, but LSU securing the West seals it)

Our biggest threats:

1. 11-2 SEC champion LSU
2. 12-1 PAC champion USC
3. 13-0 Big 12 champion TCU
4. 12-1 ACC champion Clemson/UNC
5. 1-loss Ohio State
6. 1-loss Michigan

In fairness, we SHOULD make the CFP if we finish 11-1.

BUT, in reality, the committee is comprised of human beings who are susceptible to bias, hype, criticism, agendas, and arbitrary reasoning.

 

[Mccage]

So what your saying is what's obvious

 

[VolGirl81]

Obviously, we need to win out. I think our biggest obstacle, is TCU. They have Baylor at Baylor and Iowa State left. Baylor could get them at home. It would help if OSU beat UM badly. Not very concerned with ACC or PAC 12.

 

[KeyVol14]

Obviously, we need to win out. I think our biggest obstacle, is TCU. They have Baylor at Baylor and Iowa State left. Baylor could get them at home. It would help if OSU beat UM badly. Not very concerned with ACC or PAC 12.

TCU can win out and it won’t matter. USC is the last obstacle. The loser of OSU/UM won’t get in, idk why people can’t get that in their head

 

[VolGirl81]

Agree to disagree. TCU is undefeated, they’re in. OSU/UM, committee always loves the B10. Still don’t think USC is an issue.

 

[vols-1]

Removed from CFP competition yesterday:

Oregon
UCLA
Ole Miss
Alabama (really already out, but LSU securing the West seals it)

Our biggest threats:

1. 11-2 SEC champion LSU
2. 12-1 PAC champion USC
3. 13-0 Big 12 champion TCU
4. 12-1 ACC champion Clemson/UNC
5. 1-loss Ohio State
6. 1-loss Michigan

In fairness, we SHOULD make the CFP if we finish 11-1.

BUT, in reality, the committee is comprised of human beings who are susceptible to bias, hype, criticism, agendas, and arbitrary reasoning.

The biggest bias is the committee would prefer to avoid a round 1 rematch with GA since the last game was so lopsided.

 

[DownNDirty]

You should write a book.

Sorry I know I can have lengthy posts. I've been a motorsports journalist and wrote news stories for a regional radio station for a bit as well. I've been known to maybe write too much from time-to-time.

 

[RavinDave]

Sorry I know I can have lengthy posts. I've been a motorsports journalist and wrote news stories for a regional radio station for a bit as well. I've been known to maybe write too much from time-to-time.

I was just kidding a bit. I appreciate good writing.

 

[SouthKnoxVol70]

Believe it or not , but all this social media and tik tok horsecrap about Tn, will help convince the committee that they don’t deserve it . The Vols won’t get in.

 

[KeyVol14]

Agree to disagree. TCU is undefeated, they’re in. OSU/UM, committee always loves the B10. Still don’t think USC is an issue.

Only one from the big ten will make it. We win out and we’re fine

 

[BACKDOC]

For anyone that thinks Tennessee is a lock if they win out is still in for a big letdown if certain things were to happen. Believe it or not, they still need help IMO.

I'm going to outline their path and potential pitfalls below.

First and most obvious, UT must win the last two games against USCjr and Vandy. There's about a 98% chance they'll do that but it's still one of the obvious things that has to be done.

Secondly, and I think the biggest potential landmine to clear, is for Georgia to win out. Pundits are already hyping up LSU with two losses. There would be paths that LSU did not make the playoffs with two losses but I can guarantee you that if the path was clear otherwise (2 loss conference champs from the Pac 12 and ACC and TCU to lose a game) then UGA and LSU would both likely be in and they absolutely 1000% would not take 3 SEC teams so Tennessee would be out.

I've been saying that the Ohio State and Michigan game really needs to be a blowout either way. A blowout in favor of OSU would assure Michigan is toast. But a close game and other weirdness could get Michigan in the backdoor. I do have a wee bit of faith that the committee would take Tennessee over Michigan if they were having to choose between them but I would definitely be apprehensive of it. Now, if Michigan eeks out a win versus Ohio State I'm about 80% certain the committee would give OSU the nod over UT if they were both fighting for the 4th spot. And it's not because UT wouldn't deserve to be in but rather then it would be "SEC fatigue" and the committee wanting to show that if they take 2 teams from one conference it doesn't have to be 2 teams from the SEC.

TCU still really needs to lose. Them winning out makes Tennessee's path very hard. There would still be scenarios that UT misses the playoff even with a TCU loss. One of them would involve LSU beating UGA in the SECCG. But TCU losing is still very important and if they win out it becomes exponentially more complicated for UT to make the final 4.

Oregon got clipped but there are still threats out west. USC and UCLA either with only one loss would very likely jump Tennessee in the final standings. There's a lot of talk among the ESPN's of the world - and if you think their opinion doesn't matter I hate to tell you - that if USC/UCLA runs the table and win out they "deserve" a spot in the CFB playoff. Oregon losing was a big deal but USC still has only 1 loss and an inside track if they win out.

Do NOT sleep on the ACC champion either. I'm not putting it past a committee that changes their minds on a whim to really make the statement at the end of the season - everything else be damned - that a 1 loss conference champion deserves a spot in the CFB playoffs over a 1 loss non-conference winner. Clemson and North Carolina could either one sneak in and pass UT in the final standings if that happens.

The best scenario for UT is: UGA wins out, OSU beats down Michigan and wins out, TCU loses, and the Pac 12 OR ACC conference champion winds up with 2 losses.

That would put the CFB final standings IMO: 1) OSU 2) UGA 3) ACC/Pac 12 1 loss conference champion 4) Tennessee. My reasoning here is they'd swap OSU and UGA to keep UGA/UT from playing a first round game next year kind of like they've done in the past with UGA/Bama. Or it would be UGA 1, OSU 2, Tennessee 3, and ACC/Pac 12 1 loss conference champion as 4. Either way - just keeping UT/UGA away from each other in the first round.

UGA losing in the SECCG is a disaster scenario and IMO UT is out no matter what at that point as long as LSU is just a 2 loss conference champion. They'll leap UT with 2 losses and the committee would keep UGA in also.

TCU winning out makes UT in the mix for the 4th spot and in a big danger zone. In that scenario you really need OSU to destroy Michigan and BOTH the Pac 12 and ACC conference champions to have 2 losses. In that scenario the playoffs IMO would be 1) OSU 2) UGA 3) TCU 4) Tennessee

If either the Pac 12 or ACC has a champ with only one loss with undefeated teams of UGA, OSU, and TCU I think UT has a better shot at making it with a 1 loss ACC champion but I wouldn't put money on them getting in over a 1 loss ACC winner either. But still a much better shot than staying ahead of a 1 loss Pac 12 champ of either USC/UCLA.

There's another scenario where UGA wins out and TCU loses where UT could still be in trouble. That's if Michigan wins close over OSU and there's a 1 loss Pac 12 or ACC champion on the table also. Because they could go with something like 1) UGA 2) Michigan 3) USC/Clemson/UNC 4) Ohio State

Usually these things work themselves out and luckily Oregon got clipped to take them out of the equation this weekend. But there's still a lot of players left on the field that could stand in the way of UT making it to the CFB Playoffs. The biggest threat (which is so bizarre since we smoked them) is LSU winning out and beating UGA. That would lock UT out no matter what happens otherwise because they aren't putting 3 SEC teams in a 4 team playoff. It's just not going to happen.

And finally - this is all message board discussion and just my opinion. I'm not hanging on every word every pundit says but I really think if you are of the opinion that UT is in as long as they win out you could be in for a big letdown. I'm prepared for a scenario where they are the first or second team left out even with only one loss. And they'd be in the Sugar Bowl. And you know what? With the way things have went for over a decade yes it would be disappointing to not make the CFB playoff with only one loss but life goes on. And it would still have been an amazing year for UT football. Being back on the big stage and having a fun team to watch that can beat anyone on any given Saturday has made me realize why I have stuck by this team through the likes of Precious, the Trumpet Humper, and Coach Gomer.

No matter what, no ACC team is going to leap frog us; that conf. is trash. It basically comes down to either USC or TCU losing which would be a minor miracle of that not happening, and of course UGA beating LSU.

 

[BACKDOC]

No matter what, no ACC team is going to leap frog us; that conf. is trash. It basically comes down to either USC or TCU losing which would be a minor miracle of that not happening, and of course UGA beating LSU.

.................but we don't want Mich. to beat OSU by just one point also. It's complicated.

 

[DownNDirty]

.................but we don't want Mich. to beat OSU by just one point also. It's complicated.

Bingo - definitely wouldn't want that. Best case scenario in that game is for OSU to destroy Michigan. And I can't stand OSU but I'll reluctantly cheer for whomever I need to in this situation.

 

[BACKDOC]

Just watched two videos, and both said that the PAC 12 now has no hope to send anyone to the playoff, which is great news. Matt Barrie says that a one loss TCU will still likely make it. Therefore, if that is true it will be UGA, Tennessee, TCU and the Big 10 champion.

 

[MSCE09]

Going undefeated and this not mattering is obviously better but man I love a pennant chase. The silly scenarios that suddenly become meaningful. The scoreboard watching. Its exciting. Man I missed this.
Like should I root for BC to beat ND this week but then ND to beat USC next week? I think so. Would it be great if Penn State lost to Rutgers or Michigan State? Yep!

 

[Jeff Clark]

College Football News SEC Bowl Predictions

National Championship Game: Georgia vs Tennessee

College Football Playoffs Semifinals

Fiesta Bowl:Tennessee vs Ohio State

College Football Playoffs Semifinals

Peach Bowl: Clemson vs Georgia

Sugar Bowl: LSU vs Kansas State

Orange Bowl: Alabama vs North Carolina

Citrus Bowl: Ole Miss vs Penn State

ReliaQuest Bowl: Florida vs Illinois

Music City Bowl: Missouri vs Minnesota

Gator Bowl: FSU vs Kentucky

Texas Bowl: Mississippi State vs Baylor

Liberty Bowl Kansas vs South Carolina

 

[AllVols]

By the way, great idea for a thread. Surprised nobody thought of it sooner.

I stopped reading with his "IMO".

The rest is just a waste of time.

 

[bigorangepoppa]

Obviously, we need to win out. I think our biggest obstacle, is TCU. They have Baylor at Baylor and Iowa State left. Baylor could get them at home. It would help if OSU beat UM badly. Not very concerned with ACC or PAC 12.

I agree with the TCU problem. I haven't kept up with Baylor or Ipwa State to know what chance they have against TCU. I don't know what the Baylor chance is, hopefully, they take care of the problem, but I don't think Iowa State has been very good this year, so I don't hold my breath on that one. If TCU gets the win against both of them, it comes down to Kansas State. Even if TCU wins all of those games, Ohio State-Michigan may/will be the deciding game for Tennessee getting in. One of them will be tagged with a loss, and I think Tennessee's chance is better if OS wins, convincingly. We can only sit back and watch, and hope it works itself out.

 

[DownNDirty]

I stopped reading with his "IMO".

The rest is just a waste of time.

It may be a waste of time but it's what a message board is all about - discussions. And I tried to have a coherent discussion on what needs to happen and the scenarios in play.

 

[AllVols]

It may be a waste of time but it's what a message board is all about - discussions. And I tried to have a coherent discussion on what needs to happen and the scenarios in play.

mmmk...

"And I tried to have a coherent discussion on" Your opinion. I'm out.

Keep trying. It's your time not mine.

 

[warrior]

This isn't complicated. The real risks to Tennessee's CFP bid are simple. I'll even rank them to help out.

1. A loss.
2. TCU 13-0 as Big 12 Champion
3. Any one-loss version of Ohio State
4. USC 12-1 and PAC10 Champion
5. 11-2 LSU as SEC Champion
6. 11-1 Michigan

See? Not complicated. That's all there is. Clemson hasn't done enough with its pasty schedule to jump Tennessee. Oregon and UCLA both lost. Alabama can't win the SECCG to backdoor its way in either. So that's it.

This isn't complicated.

Really at least 3 of those things has to happen to keep us out. At least 50% of those unrealistic options has to occur to keep us out.
Edit, let me rephrase that. Any one of those things does not keep us out. Any two really does not keep us out. It will need to be a combination of three.

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

Tennessee at 11-1 is going to the playoff. Star this.

Why do you think an 11-1 Ohio State that's been in the top 5 since pre-season and has been in the playoffs several recent years is going to be left out in favor of TN?

Strength of schedule is very similar between us and them.

Their loss would be to a #3 Michigan and our loss was to a (at the time) #3 GA.

Seriously, don't just say "star this post" and make pronouncements like you're God Almighty.....back it up with why you think TN gets in over Ohio State.