For anyone that thinks Tennessee is a lock if they win out is still in for a big letdown if certain things were to happen. Believe it or not, they still need help IMO.
I'm going to outline their path and potential pitfalls below.
First and most obvious, UT must win the last two games against USCjr and Vandy. There's about a 98% chance they'll do that but it's still one of the obvious things that has to be done.
Secondly, and I think the biggest potential landmine to clear, is for Georgia to win out. Pundits are already hyping up LSU with two losses. There would be paths that LSU did not make the playoffs with two losses but I can guarantee you that if the path was clear otherwise (2 loss conference champs from the Pac 12 and ACC and TCU to lose a game) then UGA and LSU would both likely be in and they absolutely 1000% would not take 3 SEC teams so Tennessee would be out.
I've been saying that the Ohio State and Michigan game really needs to be a blowout either way. A blowout in favor of OSU would assure Michigan is toast. But a close game and other weirdness could get Michigan in the backdoor. I do have a wee bit of faith that the committee would take Tennessee over Michigan if they were having to choose between them but I would definitely be apprehensive of it. Now, if Michigan eeks out a win versus Ohio State I'm about 80% certain the committee would give OSU the nod over UT if they were both fighting for the 4th spot. And it's not because UT wouldn't deserve to be in but rather then it would be "SEC fatigue" and the committee wanting to show that if they take 2 teams from one conference it doesn't have to be 2 teams from the SEC.
TCU still really needs to lose. Them winning out makes Tennessee's path very hard. There would still be scenarios that UT misses the playoff even with a TCU loss. One of them would involve LSU beating UGA in the SECCG. But TCU losing is still very important and if they win out it becomes exponentially more complicated for UT to make the final 4.
Oregon got clipped but there are still threats out west. USC and UCLA either with only one loss would very likely jump Tennessee in the final standings. There's a lot of talk among the ESPN's of the world - and if you think their opinion doesn't matter I hate to tell you - that if USC/UCLA runs the table and win out they "deserve" a spot in the CFB playoff. Oregon losing was a big deal but USC still has only 1 loss and an inside track if they win out.
Do NOT sleep on the ACC champion either. I'm not putting it past a committee that changes their minds on a whim to really make the statement at the end of the season - everything else be damned - that a 1 loss conference champion deserves a spot in the CFB playoffs over a 1 loss non-conference winner. Clemson and North Carolina could either one sneak in and pass UT in the final standings if that happens.
The best scenario for UT is: UGA wins out, OSU beats down Michigan and wins out, TCU loses, and the Pac 12 OR ACC conference champion winds up with 2 losses.
That would put the CFB final standings IMO: 1) OSU 2) UGA 3) ACC/Pac 12 1 loss conference champion 4) Tennessee. My reasoning here is they'd swap OSU and UGA to keep UGA/UT from playing a first round game next year kind of like they've done in the past with UGA/Bama. Or it would be UGA 1, OSU 2, Tennessee 3, and ACC/Pac 12 1 loss conference champion as 4. Either way - just keeping UT/UGA away from each other in the first round.
UGA losing in the SECCG is a disaster scenario and IMO UT is out no matter what at that point as long as LSU is just a 2 loss conference champion. They'll leap UT with 2 losses and the committee would keep UGA in also.
TCU winning out makes UT in the mix for the 4th spot and in a big danger zone. In that scenario you really need OSU to destroy Michigan and BOTH the Pac 12 and ACC conference champions to have 2 losses. In that scenario the playoffs IMO would be 1) OSU 2) UGA 3) TCU 4) Tennessee
If either the Pac 12 or ACC has a champ with only one loss with undefeated teams of UGA, OSU, and TCU I think UT has a better shot at making it with a 1 loss ACC champion but I wouldn't put money on them getting in over a 1 loss ACC winner either. But still a much better shot than staying ahead of a 1 loss Pac 12 champ of either USC/UCLA.
There's another scenario where UGA wins out and TCU loses where UT could still be in trouble. That's if Michigan wins close over OSU and there's a 1 loss Pac 12 or ACC champion on the table also. Because they could go with something like 1) UGA 2) Michigan 3) USC/Clemson/UNC 4) Ohio State
Usually these things work themselves out and luckily Oregon got clipped to take them out of the equation this weekend. But there's still a lot of players left on the field that could stand in the way of UT making it to the CFB Playoffs. The biggest threat (which is so bizarre since we smoked them) is LSU winning out and beating UGA. That would lock UT out no matter what happens otherwise because they aren't putting 3 SEC teams in a 4 team playoff. It's just not going to happen.
And finally - this is all message board discussion and just my opinion. I'm not hanging on every word every pundit says but I really think if you are of the opinion that UT is in as long as they win out you could be in for a big letdown. I'm prepared for a scenario where they are the first or second team left out even with only one loss. And they'd be in the Sugar Bowl. And you know what? With the way things have went for over a decade yes it would be disappointing to not make the CFB playoff with only one loss but life goes on. And it would still have been an amazing year for UT football. Being back on the big stage and having a fun team to watch that can beat anyone on any given Saturday has made me realize why I have stuck by this team through the likes of Precious, the Trumpet Humper, and Coach Gomer.
