Vegas experts like Arkansas

#78
#78
BigBadVol said:
Someone doesn’t know how lines are set and why they move.
Click to expand...

If you are referring to me, I'm simply passing this along, as a topic for discussion, and possibly some players might get fired up over it, as have the fans on here. I totally understand line movement. Some is real, some is a setup. That's what we call a "Stinky line".
 
#82
#82
Not sure how anyone can call this a "trap" game. We have had 2 weeks off. I doubt anyone was overly happy with our last offensive performance and Florida just sucks. If we are not ready for this game then the coaching staff has a lot of soul searching to do.
 
#85
#85
JohnWardForever said:
Most of the Vegas handicappers are picking ARKANSAS to cover the points, OR win outright........ Just passing it on, Mark Lawrence has Arkie as his weekly 5 star play. To beat the Vols. Hmmmmm.

Tennessee has looked like a national title contender so far this ------- AND please don't attack ME! I just passed this along. It isn't like that's My opinion! Geeze
season, thanks in large part to redshirt freshman quarterback
Nic Iamaleava, who put up a solid performance for the Vols in
last week’s 25-15 win at Oklahoma. However, the Volunteer
defense won that game for Josh Heupel, limiting the Sooners

to just 222 yards of offense. While Heupel received coach-of-
the-week honors nationwide, we were busy fi nding some soft

spots in his record. For example, the Rocky Top head coach is
just 9-16 ATS versus conference opponents coming off a loss.,
including 4-12 ATS as a favorite of 13 or more points. The Vols
are also 6-11 ATS as conference favorites when playing with rest,
including 1-6 ATS when Tennessee is undefeated. On the other

side of the coin, the Hogs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven match-
ups in this series, and overall, they are 8-2 ATS as conference

home dogs of less than 14 points. In addition, Arkansas head
coach Sam Pittman is an outstanding underdog. You can fi nd
all the support in THE CLINCHER: See this week’s TRIVIA
TEASER on page 2.
ARKANSAS over Tennessee by 3
Click to expand...
Not sure how this guy is Vegas? Looks like they are favored by 9.5 here.

www.vegasinsider.com

Tennessee vs Arkansas Odds, Betting Trends, and Line Movements - 10/05/2024

View the best Tennessee vs Arkansas odds, betting trends, and line movements for 10/05/2024. We've got their head to head and last 10 game results.
www.vegasinsider.com www.vegasinsider.com

Not sure how accurate ESPN is, but they have TN by 13.5 with an 85% chance of winning.

www.espn.com

Tennessee vs. Arkansas (Oct 5, 2024) Live Score - ESPN

Live coverage of the Tennessee Volunteers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks NCAAF game on ESPN, including live score, highlights and updated stats.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
 
#86
#86
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
LOL.

We were up 19-3 at the half. 25-9 late in the 4th. If you think a team needing score a TD then convert an onside kick to cover a 7 point spread is sweating it then you don't need to be gambling. It's usually a lot more stressful than that. The Oklahoma game was not sweating. That was an easy cover.
Click to expand...
Another post just as useful as the rest of yours. They were within a field goal of covering the 7. You can use context all you’d like, but numbers don’t lie. 10-3=7. That’s a cover.
 
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#87
#87
vegasvolfan said:
Not sure how this guy is Vegas? Looks like they are favored by 9.5 here.

www.vegasinsider.com

Tennessee vs Arkansas Odds, Betting Trends, and Line Movements - 10/05/2024

View the best Tennessee vs Arkansas odds, betting trends, and line movements for 10/05/2024. We've got their head to head and last 10 game results.
www.vegasinsider.com www.vegasinsider.com

Not sure how accurate ESPN is, but they have TN by 13.5 with an 85% chance of winning.

www.espn.com

Tennessee vs. Arkansas (Oct 5, 2024) Live Score - ESPN

Live coverage of the Tennessee Volunteers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks NCAAF game on ESPN, including live score, highlights and updated stats.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
Click to expand...

I don't think your first link is for today's football game. Here's a link to the current odds.

 
#88
#88
EastTNVol6240 said:
Another post just as useful as the rest of yours. They were within a field goal of covering the 7. You can use context all you’d like, but numbers don’t lie. 10-3=7. That’s a cover.
Click to expand...

Here's the game log: Tennessee 25-15 Oklahoma (Sep 21, 2024) Play-by-Play - ESPN

Oklahoma got it within 10 points with 2 minutes and 26 seconds left in the game. They needed to recover an onside kick to have a realistic chance at covering the spread. Recovering onside kicks are very low probability. Thus this was not a game where anyone who bet Tennessee to cover should have sweat.

Once again, if you think the opponent recovering an onside kick with 2 minutes left and hitting a field goal to cover a spread is sweating it then you shouldn't be gambling. The Oklahoma game was an easy cover compared to most games where the likelihood of winning or losing a bet changes wildly for all 4 quarters. In the Oklahoma game if you bet Tennessee to cover you were pretty much counting your winnings from the end of the first quarter. That rarely happens when gambling. Usually you're unsure if your bet will win until the very end.
 
#89
#89
vegasvolfan said:
Not sure how this guy is Vegas? Looks like they are favored by 9.5 here.

www.vegasinsider.com

Tennessee vs Arkansas Odds, Betting Trends, and Line Movements - 10/05/2024

View the best Tennessee vs Arkansas odds, betting trends, and line movements for 10/05/2024. We've got their head to head and last 10 game results.
www.vegasinsider.com www.vegasinsider.com

Not sure how accurate ESPN is, but they have TN by 13.5 with an 85% chance of winning.

www.espn.com

Tennessee vs. Arkansas (Oct 5, 2024) Live Score - ESPN

Live coverage of the Tennessee Volunteers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks NCAAF game on ESPN, including live score, highlights and updated stats.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
Click to expand...

I'm talking about the Vegas Handicappers. Not the Sportsbooks. The books set the line based on power ratings. Doesn't take an expert for that, just compare ratings and give the home team 3-4 points. Walk in any casino book and ask the big players if they know Mark Lawrence.
 
#90
#90
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Here's the game log: Tennessee 25-15 Oklahoma (Sep 21, 2024) Play-by-Play - ESPN

Oklahoma got it within 10 points with 2 minutes and 26 seconds left in the game. They needed to recover an onside kick to have a realistic chance at covering the spread. Recovering onside kicks are very low probability. Thus this was not a game where anyone who bet Tennessee to cover should have sweat.

Once again, if you think the opponent recovering an onside kick with 2 minutes left and hitting a field goal to cover a spread is sweating it then you shouldn't be gambling. The Oklahoma game was an easy cover compared to most games where the likelihood of winning or losing a bet changes wildly for all 4 quarters. In the Oklahoma game if you bet Tennessee to cover you were pretty much counting your winnings from the end of the first quarter. That rarely happens when gambling. Usually you're unsure if your bet will win until the very end.
Click to expand...
I see you’re trying to argue with simple math. Maybe you just don’t wager enough to sweat.
 
#91
#91
EastTNVol6240 said:
I see you’re trying to argue with simple math. Maybe you just don’t wager enough to sweat.
Click to expand...

I specifically bet on this game at -6.5 Tennessee. After Donte Thornton scored the touchdown to put us up 10-3 at the end of the first quarter I knew we would win. By halftime when we got up 19-3 I knew the bet would cash.

Needing an onside kick to convert ain't what I would call sweating it out.
 
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#92
#92
Woodlawn VOL said:
If we come prepared and focused and bring the intensity we will win. I am almost glad some media are expecting us to not handle our business. Arkansas will definitely be ready to play Tennessee, nobody can be taken lightly. Having said all that I have confidence that Tennessee is going to prove we are not a pretender. Go get the Win Vols! One game at a time! GBO
Click to expand...
Agree, IMO the difference in this team especially on D is we are so deep, some outstanding players know can't take a week off can't coast. Why, because when you have players that can bring it, its all you can do to keep your reps, Iron sharpens Iron, GBO.
 
#94
#94
JohnWardForever said:
Most of the Vegas handicappers are picking ARKANSAS to cover the points, OR win outright........ Just passing it on, Mark Lawrence has Arkie as his weekly 5 star play. To beat the Vols. Hmmmmm.

Tennessee has looked like a national title contender so far this ------- AND please don't attack ME! I just passed this along. It isn't like that's My opinion! Geeze
season, thanks in large part to redshirt freshman quarterback
Nic Iamaleava, who put up a solid performance for the Vols in
last week’s 25-15 win at Oklahoma. However, the Volunteer
defense won that game for Josh Heupel, limiting the Sooners

to just 222 yards of offense. While Heupel received coach-of-
the-week honors nationwide, we were busy fi nding some soft

spots in his record. For example, the Rocky Top head coach is
just 9-16 ATS versus conference opponents coming off a loss.,
including 4-12 ATS as a favorite of 13 or more points. The Vols
are also 6-11 ATS as conference favorites when playing with rest,
including 1-6 ATS when Tennessee is undefeated. On the other

side of the coin, the Hogs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven match-
ups in this series, and overall, they are 8-2 ATS as conference

home dogs of less than 14 points. In addition, Arkansas head
coach Sam Pittman is an outstanding underdog. You can fi nd
all the support in THE CLINCHER: See this week’s TRIVIA
TEASER on page 2.
ARKANSAS over Tennessee by 3
Click to expand...
They are idiots! Vols by 30
 
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#96
#96
Has anyone considered how vanilla we played on offense with that terrible field? Sampson said it on that podcast.

If this field is normal, our offense is going to put up points.
 
#98
#98
HoptownVol said:
For some reason, I'm worried about Arkansas.
Click to expand...
It's because like a lot of us, you are suffering BVS. It is also the next game up. It's OK to be worried my friend.

Given your screen name, maybe we know each other. (I highly doubt it) But I grew up in Russellville.. ;)
 
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