To give some insight on NIL in general, I have a good bit of experience through my business.
We broker licensing deals between celebrities/influencers and physical product brands
Generally, they are paid a small up front retainer depending on the size of their audience and then paid a royalty on gross sales they are able to drive. Typically between 8%-12%
So as an example, one guy with a YouTube audience of about 1.6M subscribers promoted a brand we manage a few times. He generated around $500k in sales and was paid about $55,000 in total.
A college athlete is going to have very little influence in driving sales compared to the type of people we work with. Firstly, their influence is regional. Second, they don’t have a connection with their audience the same way a Youtuber would for instance.
I’d say a guy like a Josh Dobbs or Grant Williams could have earned around $100k a year in deals among recent UT alums. But most players just wouldn’t be able to earn a ton of money.
Now granted, I’m looking at this from the economic perspective a business that actually wants to make money from a deal would have. There will be plenty of booster/ who are happy to just pay players big bucks to get them recruited. That’s a different thing entirely.
Edit: I’d say there will also be some predatory stuff that happens now where companies try to sign athletes with significant potential to long term deals. Like, imagine you could sign Kevin Durant when he was in high school to a 5 year deal and it only cost your $20k.