War in Ukraine

#45,101
#45,101
LSU-SIU said:
Since they basically caused a $1-2t margin call off of basically $20b of goods, what do you think?

Turkey is being pressed by the United States, I posted on this earlier last week. Turkey is about as sovereign as the Ukraine.
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Erdogan has to be scheming right now. The Finland/Sweden NATO vote, F-35 sales rejected, Greek troubles. US in NE Syria arming Kurds, now the MIR card threats...

I'm no fan of Erdogan or Turkey, but what benefit has it been for Turkey to be in NATO in the past 5-6 years?

Oh, I forgot about the attempted coup that may have been a Western regime change operation...
 
#45,103
#45,103
Rasputin_Vol said:
Erdogan has to be scheming right now. The Finland/Sweden NATO vote, F-35 sales rejected, Greek troubles. US in NE Syria arming Kurds, now the MIR card threats...

I'm no fan of Erdogan or Turkey, but what benefit has it been for Turkey to be in NATO in the past 5-6 years?

Oh, I forgot about the attempted coup that may have been a Western regime change operation...
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That "coup" was Erdogan getting rid of his opposition.
 
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#45,105
#45,105
#45,107
#45,107
hog88 said:
It was either us or Russia.
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Why? Neither of those makes sense. For Russia NG is one of the few things they can still sell and they also lord it over Europe as an open threat. For us, why would we do that what do we gain? We can’t back fill that volume with tankers there simply isn’t enough delivery volume. And why would we cut off Europe’s energy we have no motive?

The obvious party this benefits is Ukraine as it forces all NG to Europe from Russia back thru their pipelines. But how would they have the means to do so?
 
#45,108
#45,108
NorthDallas40 said:
Why? Neither of those makes sense. For Russia NG is one of the few things they can still sell and they also lord it over Europe as an open threat. For us, why would we do that what do we gain? We can’t back fill that volume with tankers there simply isn’t enough delivery volume. And why would we cut off Europe’s energy we have no motive?

The obvious party this benefits is Ukraine as it forces all NG to Europe from Russia back thru their pipelines. But how would they have the means to do so?
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Ukraine doesn't have that capability, but the UK certainly does.
 
#45,110
#45,110
volgr said:
You guys posting all these videos from supposed Russians trying to dodge conscription reminds me of everyone posting videos from China before Covid hit the US. No idea if they are true or propaganda....doesnt matter, splash them all over social media. Amazin'.
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It was actually pretty funny at first. But this thread has went from Three's Company to As The World Turns because of the constant drama of the pro Ukraine/pro Zelensky regime crowd in here.
 
#45,111
#45,111
NorthDallas40 said:
I know Ukraine doesn’t have that capability but they are the most obvious benefactor. The UK makes as much sense as us. Which is none.
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The US government would do it to spur the Europeans into action. They’ve always thought Europe drags its feet when it comes to Western advancement into Ukraine.
 
#45,116
#45,116
The Russian KIA numbers claimed by UKR are trending crazy high.

The 7 day average is likely over 400/day. That's 150,000/year roughly.

Granted, the UKR are inflated... probably by 50%, but there seems to be a pretty strong trend here - which may be connected to the decreasing quality of troops Putin is pressganging into the front lines.

Anyone care to speculate where the next major UKR offensive will be?

 
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#45,117
#45,117
NorthDallas40 said:
Why? Neither of those makes sense. For Russia NG is one of the few things they can still sell and they also lord it over Europe as an open threat. For us, why would we do that what do we gain? We can’t back fill that volume with tankers there simply isn’t enough delivery volume. And why would we cut off Europe’s energy we have no motive?

The obvious party this benefits is Ukraine as it forces all NG to Europe from Russia back thru their pipelines. But how would they have the means to do so?
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For us it would further drive western Europe, mainly Germany under our thumb and I believe that it will come to light Russia was shipping NG to Germany through the pipeline on the sly. For Russia it would be punishment to Germany for supporting Ukraine. Germany runs the EU and if they go into recession/depression and cannot fund the poorer nations of the EU it will break up. So my money is on Russia.
 
#45,118
#45,118
hog88 said:
For us it would further drive western Europe, mainly Germany under our thumb and I believe that it will come to light Russia was shipping NG to Germany through the pipeline on the sly. For Russia it would be punishment to Germany for supporting Ukraine. Germany runs the EU and if they go into recession/depression and cannot fund the poorer nations of the EU it will break up. So my money is on Russia.
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Again risk/reward. Hell I’d pretty much call it and act of war for us to do this. I think our government is full of idiots but they don’t have a death wish that I see.

The most obvious benefactor is Ukraine. They don’t have the military means that I’m aware of however. But what if they paid some merc group to do it? That seems most plausible to me.
 
#45,119
#45,119
NorthDallas40 said:
Again risk/reward. Hell I’d pretty much call it and act of war for us to do this. I think our government is full of idiots but they don’t have a death wish that I see.

The most obvious benefactor is Ukraine. They don’t have the military means that I’m aware of however. But what if they paid some merc group to do it? That seems most plausible to me.
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I don't see it. Why would Russia ship through Ukraine and pay them? They are at war.
 
#45,120
#45,120
hog88 said:
I don't see it. Why would Russia ship through Ukraine and pay them? They are at war.
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If that’s the only pipeline available how could they not. Remember Russia is a gas station masquerading as a country. Without their fossil fuel revenues they are toast in no time.

Also remember both pipelines were idled at the time of this or that is the public statement. You speculated Germany could be receiving gas on the sly.
 
#45,121
#45,121
NorthDallas40 said:
If that’s the only pipeline available how could they not. Remember Russia is a gas station masquerading as a country. Without their fossil fuel revenues they are toast in no time.

Also remember both pipelines were idled at the time of this or that is the public statement. You speculated Germany could be receiving gas on the sly.
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Yes, I firmly believe Germany has been "topping off their tank" outside of the sanctions.
 
#45,123
#45,123
NorthDallas40 said:
That was my question to you. Why? You put forth your “theory” why does that make sense? From a risk/reward trade it’s completely asinine
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Firstly, you did not ask a question. Secondly, you made an assertion about what I said, calling it asinine is not an argument. My assertion was that “the US would do it.” My reason was that it would garner support for action against Russia by European countries. The US has wanted support for its actions in Ukraine since at least 2014 (see entire Nuland phone call with Pyatt). And these actions have been taken for the furtherance of our Containment strategy (the opposite of our Monroe Doctrine).
 
#45,125
#45,125
bcmbvol said:
Firstly, you did not ask a question. Secondly, you made an assertion about what I said, calling it asinine is not an argument. My assertion was that “the US would do it.” My reason was that it would garner support for action against Russia by European countries. The US has wanted support for its actions in Ukraine since at least 2014 (see entire Nuland phone call with Pyatt). And these actions have been taken for the furtherance of our Containment strategy.
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Ok I’m not doing this again with you. Yes, WHY would the US act as you claim. Yes I’m saying it’s asinine and makes no sense. It’s basically an act of war.
 
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