War in Ukraine

#78,701
#78,701
PKT_VOL said:
Sometimes I wonder how overinflated these estimates are.

Then, I see videos of a golf cart packed full of Russians driving across an open field on the frontline and getting torched by machine gun fire. At a certain point, Russian incompetence crosses the threshold from plain stupid military tactics to downright suicide.
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Given Russia's tactic of using expendable troops as bait for counterbattery artillery fire, I doubt the daily estimates are that far off.

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#78,702
#78,702
rjd970 said:
Haven’t kept up with this thread so may have been speculated already - but what is the end game for Russia here? What is victory?
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Nothing will be decided before the US elections.

Their obvious goal is all of Ukraine. If they succeed in a breakthrough in the frontlines, that goal is somewhat on the table (at least realistically east of the Dnipro River).

If they can't manage that, they will take Crimea and a land bridge to Crimea from Russia. This is now their most realistic goal.

If Ukraine was to make a breakthrough, they would at least like to hang onto Crimea + get a treaty with the West/NATO that Ukraine will remain outside of NATO.

Even in the most optimistic Ukrainian scenario, Russia would need a face-saving exit concession. About the most bare minimum I can imagine is a combination of a treaty with the West/NATO that Ukraine will remain outside of NATO + a lease of Sevastopol naval base + proclaiming de-Nazification + proclaiming demilitarization of Ukraine.
 
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#78,703
#78,703
PKT_VOL said:
Sometimes I wonder how overinflated these estimates are.

Then, I see videos of a golf cart packed full of Russians driving across an open field on the frontline and getting torched by machine gun fire. At a certain point, Russian incompetence crosses the threshold from plain stupid military tactics to downright suicide.
Click to expand...
I always take about 1/3 off. do the same when the russians project Ukrainian losses.
 
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#78,704
#78,704
BeardedVol said:
Given Russia's tactic of using expendable troops as bait for counterbattery artillery fire, I doubt the daily estimates are that far off.

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The golf cart isn't even counterbattery tactics as it was direct fire instead of indirect fire.

We have known about their flippant disregard for solider causalities since WWII. However, WWII was an existential threat and they were able to pull bodies from all over the USSR.

Now, Russia is standing alone fighting a non-existential offensive conquest war against a former USSR country. The resources aren't the same, the existential need isn't the same, yet the almost contempt for their own soldiers persist. The other element of this war, which will catch up Russian leadership eventually, is that the entire war is on tape to be saved and disseminated for posterity.
 
#78,705
#78,705
LouderVol said:
I always take about 1/3 off. do the same when the russians project Ukrainian losses.
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Probably a good rule of thumb. Even 1/2 off leaves you with staggering causalities.

Normally, I drift towards your rule of thumb, Then, I see videos that I can only describe as mass suicide leaving me looking like ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ .
 
#78,706
#78,706
LouderVol said:
so still no guarantees.

what does the memorandum include as far what support is, or pushing back against the Russians include? An actual guarantee, one worth a darn, spells out what it means.

compare the wording of the memorandum against NATO article 5.

“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.”

specifies armed force.
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The US, UK and Russia gave its word to the Ukrainian people that if they gave up their nukes, each nation would ensure their security.

Fact.

Then Russia ignored that promise and invaded them.

Now we can either live up to our word that we'll ensure their security or simply renege on our word.

Clearly, you're not a man of your word. Instead you opt to joust in verbal semantics with your own ethically-devoid mind.
 
#78,707
#78,707
MontyPython said:
The US, UK and Russia gave its word to the Ukrainian people that if they gave up their nukes, each nation would ensure their security.

Fact.

Then Russia ignored that promise and invaded them.

Now we can either live up to our word that we'll ensure their security or simply renege on our word.

Clearly, you're not a man of your word. Instead you opt to joust in verbal semantics with your own ethically-devoid mind.
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Isn’t providing Ukraine with advanced weapons and pallets of cash fulfilling the spirit of the agreement? Nothing in the wording compels anyone to commit troops to defend Ukraine.
 
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#78,711
#78,711
PKT_VOL said:
Nothing will be decided before the US elections.

Their obvious goal is all of Ukraine. If they succeed in a breakthrough in the frontlines, that goal is somewhat on the table (at least realistically east of the Dnipro River).

If they can't manage that, they will take Crimea and a land bridge to Crimea from Russia. This is now their most realistic goal.

If Ukraine was to make a breakthrough, they would at least like to hang onto Crimea + get a treaty with the West/NATO that Ukraine will remain outside of NATO.

Even in the most optimistic Ukrainian scenario, Russia would need a face-saving exit concession. About the most bare minimum I can imagine is a combination of a treaty with the West/NATO that Ukraine will remain outside of NATO + a lease of Sevastopol naval base + proclaiming de-Nazification + proclaiming demilitarization of Ukraine.
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I could see a scenario where Ukraine is admitted to the EU (or even NATO) in exchange for territorial concessions.
 
#78,713
#78,713
#78,718
#78,718
MG1968 said:
No, but nearly three years later and Putin hasn’t won, either.
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I think the issue is - context. You had the government officials, representatives, and the media gaslighting all this from the beginning. And you had the United States telling the Ukraine what to do i.e. wait till there is a better opportunity to negotiate. In the meantime, 100s of thousands of people have died for no reason. All the shovels, washing machine parts, Putin is dying of cancer for the fifth time, the ghost, transsexual PR person, U.S. equipment is the best in the world, etc. has now run its course i.e. United States nonsense.

I would say Russia's goals at the beginning in 2022 are different what they are now, at that point they were more interested in NATO not being there and getting rid of the Western installed government. The situation is completely different now, so what is a win? I would say Russia is getting what they want even though they probably never envisioned this happening like this. At the end of the day, the Ukraine loses no matter what whether or not Russia gets everything they want.

The best time for a deal for the Ukraine was yesterday - every day that goes by it will most likely get worse.

I don't know if Russia will "win" (or know what that means) but the Ukraine is and will continue to lose.
 
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#78,719
#78,719
LSU-SIU said:
I think the issue is - context. You had the government officials, representatives, and the media gaslighting all this from the beginning. And you had the United States telling the Ukraine what to do i.e. wait till there is a better opportunity to negotiate. In the meantime, 100s of thousands of people have died for no reason. All the shovels, washing machine parts, Putin is dying of cancer for the fifth time, the ghost, transsexual PR person, U.S. equipment is the best in the world, etc. has now run its course i.e. United States nonsense.

I would say Russia's goals at the beginning in 2022 are different what they are now, at that point they were more interested in NATO not being there and getting rid of the Western installed government. The situation is completely different now, so what is a win? I would say Russia is getting what they want even though they probably never envisioned this happening like this. At the end of the day, the Ukraine loses no matter what whether or not Russia gets everything they want.

The best time for a deal for the Ukraine was yesterday - every day that goes by it will most likely get worse.

I don't know if Russia will "win" (or know what that means) but the Ukraine is and will continue to lose.
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Repeating the lie that “the west installed Zelensky” has never made it true.
 
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#78,721
#78,721
LSU-SIU said:
I think the issue is - context. You had the government officials, representatives, and the media gaslighting all this from the beginning. And you had the United States telling the Ukraine what to do i.e. wait till there is a better opportunity to negotiate. In the meantime, 100s of thousands of people have died for no reason. All the shovels, washing machine parts, Putin is dying of cancer for the fifth time, the ghost, transsexual PR person, U.S. equipment is the best in the world, etc. has now run its course i.e. United States nonsense.

I would say Russia's goals at the beginning in 2022 are different what they are now, at that point they were more interested in NATO not being there and getting rid of the Western installed government. The situation is completely different now, so what is a win? I would say Russia is getting what they want even though they probably never envisioned this happening like this. At the end of the day, the Ukraine loses no matter what whether or not Russia gets everything they want.

The best time for a deal for the Ukraine was yesterday - every day that goes by it will most likely get worse.

I don't know if Russia will "win" (or know what that means) but the Ukraine is and will continue to lose.
Click to expand...

The Ukrainiacs in this thread are very similar to the Branch Covidians from a few years ago. They will deny angrily deny reality to hold on to their fairy tale belief.

As Twain said, "It is easier to fool someone than it is for them to admit they were fooled".
 
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#78,722
#78,722
volgr said:
The Ukrainiacs in this thread are very similar to the Branch Covidians from a few years ago. They will deny angrily deny reality to hold on to their fairy tale belief.

As Twain said, "It is easier to fool someone than it is for them to admit they were fooled".
Click to expand...

LOL that's funny coming from you.
 
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#78,725
#78,725
MG1968 said:
Repeating the lie that “the west installed Zelensky” has never made it true.
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Right. Which is why the Comedian did exactly what the U.S. told him to do and stopped speaking with the Russians.

The best time to negotiate was yesterday, eventually there will be nothing to negotiate but full surrender. (they might already be there) But continue to act like you care, its amusing.
 
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