War in Ukraine

#82,080
#82,080
Trump to push for ‘freezing’ Ukraine conflict – WSJ

However, according to the WSJ, peace proposals “uniformly recommend freezing the war in place… and forcing Ukraine to temporarily suspend its quest to join” NATO. Three unnamed officials inside Trump’s transition office told the paper that one idea is to have Ukraine pledge not to join NATO “for at least 20 years,” while in exchange, the US would provide Kiev with ample weapons deliveries to keep Russia at bay.
Click to expand...

I think if this is the "plan", its not worth the virtual paper its written on. As I mentioned I think in late 2022, this has to go on for some time as there really isn't any easy way out of this other than meat grinding. The Ukrainians are actually precluded at this time from "freezing" anything, of course they could change that but they would have to make adjustments. The Russians have pointed that they are willing to negotiate but not under conditions. A freeze really doesn't do much and I fail to see how it can be even carried out at the present time. The whole not joining NATO thing is only one piece but how does that even work? Furthermore, the Russians can't trust the West as Trump is only in office for 4 years and the Ukraine can't live without major welfare from the West for a decade or more.

The original idea that was leaked around in 2022, if not suggested by Russia seems like the best outcome at the time. Russia was signaling that Poland should move troops into the West and annex it, Russia would keep the East. The issue with that is even Poland doesn't want to be burdened by the welfare State they would have to support. Basically, nobody is going to want to take care of Western Ukraine for basically forever.

Its hard to imagine at least at this moment how the situation improves with Trump, but at least I think on a respect level temporarily it could improve speaking terms.

Meat grinding will continue for some time.
 
#82,085
#82,085
lukeneyland said:
If we cut funding they’d be fools not to
Click to expand...
eh, we will see.

I think Ukraine/Zelensky goes chicken little every time their funds are mentioned because more obviously helps them. its not like Trump cutting funding is going to stop the rest of Europe from doing so. it may even force Europe to up their game even more.

at this point in the war it is clear there is no huge advantage on either side. Russia has had to pull in North Korean troops, so clearly they are feeling it at this point. yeah maybe without US funding Russia doesn't need North Koreans to fight for them, but I doubt it leads to a full collapse of the Ukrainian war effort.

Ukrainian arms production has drastically gone up in the intervening two years too. so much so that Ukraine can't afford to buy all of the production, and they are considering exports. mostly of drones, to help fund the war effort. So its not like Ukraine has been sitting on its hands 100% relying on western aide. going back to WW2, even in 1945 with the USSR rolling into Germany the US was still giving them plenty of equipment, resources, and machine components even though objectively it wasn't "needed" at that point. I think its a little similar hear. The extra equipment is nice, and both sides would rather have more than less, but its not to the same degree of necessary as it was before.
 
  • Like
Reactions: NorthDallas40
#82,087
#82,087
This is the one foreign policy promise that Trump was just blowing hot air on. This war isn't going to be ended easily. I do think he can bring a different dynamic in that, I believe, Putin is more likely to talk to Trump and give up more for peace. I am just not sure peace is possible without surrendering territory to Russia and I don't think Ukraine will be willing to do that (other than maybe Crimea but Russia wants more than Crimea).

I don't see this war ending very soon. US aid will slow down.

Russia is overextended right now but Ukraine just isn't strong enough to take the offensive and drive Russia out of its current games. It is a classic stale mate.
 
#82,088
#82,088
McDad said:
Ridiculous sarcastic premise.
Click to expand...

How so?
www.theguardian.com

Russia’s weaponising of sexual violence, and Ukraine’s response, reveals a grim war of values | Kateryna Busol

Ukraine’s fight for justice for survivors of terrible sexual crimes shows the battle goes far beyond territory, says Dr Kateryna Busol, a Ukrainian lawyer
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

www.lemonde.fr

Rape in Ukraine: 'Criminals often say it's so the survivors won't have any more children'

A war weapon in its own right, sexual violence committed by Russian soldiers has numbered in the thousands since the invasion began. It continues behind closed doors.
www.lemonde.fr www.lemonde.fr

news.un.org

Ukraine: Rape and torture by Russian forces continuing, rights experts report

Russian forces in Ukraine faced new allegations of war crimes on Monday as UN-appointed independent rights experts published the findings of their latest report into Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbour.
news.un.org news.un.org
 
#82,090
#82,090
BeardedVol said:
How so?
www.theguardian.com

Russia’s weaponising of sexual violence, and Ukraine’s response, reveals a grim war of values | Kateryna Busol

Ukraine’s fight for justice for survivors of terrible sexual crimes shows the battle goes far beyond territory, says Dr Kateryna Busol, a Ukrainian lawyer
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

www.lemonde.fr

Rape in Ukraine: 'Criminals often say it's so the survivors won't have any more children'

A war weapon in its own right, sexual violence committed by Russian soldiers has numbered in the thousands since the invasion began. It continues behind closed doors.
www.lemonde.fr www.lemonde.fr

news.un.org

Ukraine: Rape and torture by Russian forces continuing, rights experts report

Russian forces in Ukraine faced new allegations of war crimes on Monday as UN-appointed independent rights experts published the findings of their latest report into Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbour.
news.un.org news.un.org
Click to expand...
You and I have a radically different philosophy about how to apply our influence to the world at large.

I think I understand your position.

Understanding mine is not helped by posting stories of rape in Ukraine.
 
#82,092
#82,092
McDad said:
You and I have a radically different philosophy about how to apply our influence to the world at large.

I think I understand your position.

Understanding mine is not helped by posting stories of rape in Ukraine.
Click to expand...

How exactly is it a sarcastic premise?

We forced Ukraine to give up their nuclear weapons, bombers, and missiles, in exchange for protection.

The complied with our demands:

Now, we're going to abandon them to the people who have been actively raping and murdering them for the last three years.
 
#82,093
#82,093
Volnbeers said:
again--not our problem
Click to expand...

Cool, we can give Ukraine the weapons they gave up or destroyed to comply with the Budapest Memorandum, and wash our hands of it and pretend that the United States is unaffected by anything occuring outside our borders, just like the 1930s.

I'm sure it will work out fine for us.
 
#82,094
#82,094
Gbw-LNbXQAQgdoe
 
#82,095
#82,095
BeardedVol said:
Cool, we can give Ukraine the weapons they gave up or destroyed to comply with the Budapest Memorandum, and wash our hands of it and pretend that the United States is unaffected by anything occuring outside our borders, just like the 1930s.

I'm sure it will work out fine for us.
Click to expand...
ahh yes Blinken. the gift that keeps on giving. perhaps we should take that memorandum and out it thru a paper shredder?
 
#82,096
#82,096
volbound1700 said:
This is the one foreign policy promise that Trump was just blowing hot air on. This war isn't going to be ended easily. I do think he can bring a different dynamic in that, I believe, Putin is more likely to talk to Trump and give up more for peace. I am just not sure peace is possible without surrendering territory to Russia and I don't think Ukraine will be willing to do that (other than maybe Crimea but Russia wants more than Crimea).

I don't see this war ending very soon. US aid will slow down.

Russia is overextended right now but Ukraine just isn't strong enough to take the offensive and drive Russia out of its current games. It is a classic stale mate.
Click to expand...

If there is U.S. abandonment there isn't much to negotiate.

I wouldn't even accept unconditional surrender, the only choice at that point is all the Ukrainians would have to move to Poland or other. Someone has to step up to the plate or it just becomes a Russia problem in the near future.
 
#82,097
#82,097
LSU-SIU said:
If there is U.S. abandonment there isn't much to negotiate.

I wouldn't even accept unconditional surrender, the only choice at that point is all the Ukrainians would have to move to Poland or other. Someone has to step up to the plate or it just becomes a Russia problem in the near future.
Click to expand...
what do you think Russia gains from an empty Ukraine?

even as a buffer, that is added cost, with decreased finances behind supporting it. even if you assume the numbers presented on Russian losses are overestimated by over 50%, they are still paying a huge price for the land they are gaining. and with a decreasing population its not like they can assume they will have the workforce back in a generation. and thats just to work the current jobs. the lands they are taking in Ukraine are the best industrial, and some great farm land too. they would be fools to waste it, but that takes even more population they don't have.
 
#82,098
#82,098
LSU-SIU said:
If there is U.S. abandonment there isn't much to negotiate.

I wouldn't even accept unconditional surrender, the only choice at that point is all the Ukrainians would have to move to Poland or other. Someone has to step up to the plate or it just becomes a Russia problem in the near future.
Click to expand...

Ukraine will still get aid through the EU and the EU can still buy weapons from USA.

Frankly, as weak as EU has become, the EU could still defeat Russia without any help from the USA.

Russia has also blown through a lot of their weapons (they still have a lot of top line forces they have held back for defensive purposes but most of the resources that they could allocate to fight Ukraine have been eaten through, this is why they are getting aid from Iran, North Korea, etc.).
 
#82,099
#82,099
Volnbeers said:
ahh yes Blinken. the gift that keeps on giving. perhaps we should take that memorandum and out it thru a paper shredder?
Click to expand...

Ukraine complied with their obligations did they not?

I would say that redress is appropriate given the material loss of weaponry that they were forced to destroy or give to Russia in order to comply.

What's the going rate for 1,900 strategic warheads, ~3,300 tactical nuclear weapons, 176 ICBMs, and 44 strategic bombers?
 
#82,100
#82,100
volbound1700 said:
Ukraine will still get aid through the EU and the EU can still buy weapons from USA.

Frankly, as weak as EU has become, the EU could still defeat Russia without any help from the USA.

Russia has also blown through a lot of their weapons (they still have a lot of top line forces they have held back for defensive purposes but most of the resources that they could allocate to fight Ukraine have been eaten through, this is why they are getting aid from Iran, North Korea, etc.).
Click to expand...

I think there is a place we can further discuss i.e. Fantasy Land.

f3924a6c-6da5-4cf0-9fcd-d10c2cb8f2b2_text.gif

The meat grinder will continue under that situation, without U.S. support the whole thing collapses, imo. 10s of billions of U.S. money every year, there isn't anything to negotiate.... so to the Last Ukrainian.
 
Last edited:
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top