After rebuilding the Russian military and putting his own stooge in the White House, Putin seems to feel quite the superior man. My belief is that the effects of total power are worsened in his case, by personality flaws and the use of Performance Enhancing Drugs, which are infamous among Russian athletes. If that is accurate, then he might be a real nut case with a finger on the big button, who is not likely to get better.
Let's not overstate the rebuilding of the Russian military. Their Navy is a fraction of its Cold War size plus many of their combat ships were built 40-50 years ago. The same is true for their ground forces. They once had a massive superiority in tanks but that no longer exists.
They've been working on technological advances with their biggest one being hypersonic misses IF they've actually accomplished that but it really doesn't change the calculations on conventional war. They've also developed a new front line fighter which I see mentioned by Russian news bots as being a devastating weapon. Doubt it.
As far as regular weapons systems you see them doing it on the cheap.
Their biggest issue is what you see happening in Ukraine. Their regular (not special forces) troops are conscripts who are more culturally diverse than you might expect. Less cohesiveness.
Our biggest advantage, and it's a huge one, is the difference in the authority, ingenuity and commitment of our senior enlisted ranks (our NCOs). The Russians do not give their senior enlisted the authority to manage and innovate. It is a very hierarchal management structure. Our service members are trained and encouraged to exercise leadership at all levels. So in the fog of war, you would see an American E-5 who finds that he is the senior ranking person in a group, organize that group and get them in the fight. A Russian NCO is going to consolidate his position and wait for higher authority to tell him what to do next while he has to worry about how many of his conscript troops are going to sneak off in the dark to avoid getting killed.
On an update, Ukrainian reports say they shot down two Russian troop planes. If troops were on board that would be a lot of dead.
I think the real surprise is that 72 hours into this war the Russians have not established air superiority.
I can tell you that when two modern military countries engage it an air war, it is closely tracked by our military pilots. I remember sitting around the ready room with all the pilots in the training squadron I was teaching in at the time, talking about the reports of the Argentian air force tearing the Brits apart with their old A-4s during the Falklands war. If we hadn't broken neutrality and provided 24/7 AWACS coverage over the Brit fleet, they would have been beaten. Their Harriers couldn't intercept the A-4s without substantial warning.
I digress, my point was that I would love to be a fly on the wall listening to those discussions one more time.