War in Ukraine

Austria wanted to punish Serbia for their continued annoyance towards the empire, Serbia had no real role in the assassination other than supposedly providing the weapon. Sarajevo was located in the Austrian Empire. Austria hated the Serbs and needed the backing of the Germans for support because they knew Russia would defend the Slavs, Germany was not threatened by the Russian Empire. It had been teetering on the edge of revolution for a while and was economically declining. Russia wasn't strengthening it was declining. They were embarrassed by the Japanese at the turn of the century and had already endured several unsuccessful revolts, heck the Czar had no real heir to the throne. Russia mobilized their armies along the German border which provoked the Germans. The only real success Russia had in the war was in the very beginning when they invaded Eastern Prussia. Japan invaded China in 1931, over a decade before Pearl Harbor. The Great Depression did have a major role in Hitler's ascension to power. It's hard to say whether or not he wouldn't have been appointed as Chancellor considering the party had a majority in the Reichstag; Hindenberg's death alone may have facilitated it without the Great Depression.

First off, Germany actually encouraged Austria-Hungary to go to war with Serbia. By 1914, Austria-Hungary was almost a puppet state of the German Empire because their leadership was very weak. Look it up, Germany pushed the war. Germany almost started WW1 in 1911 over Morocco. The only way that WW1 doesn't happen is if Kaiser Wilhelm and his general staff are not running the show in Germany.

The Nazi party does not get elected if not for the Depression. The Nazis were polling about where the US Libertarian or Green party polls in our elections until the Depression hit. The Nazis (through blind luck) predicted the Depression would happen as well which caused them to gain more legitimacy with the German people.
 
US energy policies are going to change marginally in a little less than a year, but significantly in just under three.
 
I'm still waiting to here from all the Biden critics on what he should have done or should be doing differently. From where I sit it looks like he is about help end not 1, but 2 wars.


Maybe not cripple our energy sources by becoming dependent on a government that literally started a war. Your boy helped fund them and is doubling down on stupid. No surprise.
 
I understand all of it , and the need for it , but not going to lie it makes me nervous to see everybody all packed in so close together , one miscalculation, one pilot flying over the wrong airspace and it will get nasty PDQ .

The prospect of a desperate Putin going nuclear is bone chilling. God help us if he's insane enough to go that route.

I was young during the end of the Cold War. I was 19 during 9/11, which was very scary in its own way, but this feels different. It’s just so random and unnecessary. It doesn’t make sense. There’s no rhyme or reason and it honestly scares the hell out of me. For the first time in my life there is an absolute feeling of apprehension going into the next day that there really is someone crazy enough to set off a chain of events that can’t be reversed. I don’t know if this is what it felt like 60 years ago, but it’s an uneasy feeling that I haven’t experienced before.
 
While it’s great that Germany is finally stepping into a protection leadership role in Europe one can’t help but look at the first half of the 20 th century and wonder how this is going to go over once Ukraine has ended.

I realize the Germany of today is not the Germany of the 1940’s and same for Japan but the longer term impacts are both of these power houses are going to be “welcomed” back to the well armed and dangerous country club. Let’s hope Europe’s tiffs stay sibling rivalries this time around.
That’s a pretty dark future you’re alluding to here.
 
A 2:1 or possibly 3:1 ratio of dead Russians to Ukrainians seems reasonable considering Ukraine is on defense.

If so, Russians have been really really trying to avoid indiscriminate killing then (which makes sense given their stated agenda) because they have a lot of bombs to drop in very densely populated areas. In a city of 3m it would be easy to kill 2-3k in a single bombing run without really trying too hard. If Russia determines that they cant tell civilian from foe and thus all civis are fair game, a true shock and awe subjugation strategy could start. Russia will lose in the end but in the meantime a LOT of innocent people could die just from conventional bombing.
 
CNN reports from the grisly aftermath of a fierce fight between Russian and Ukrainian forces

Unexploded grenades, smoking vehicles and dead bodies litter a scorched bridge near Kyiv after a Russian attack was repelled by Ukrainian forces.

CNN’s Matthew Chance walked through the aftermath of the scene on Monday, where charred debris litters the ground and the remains of Russian soldiers lay abandoned on the tarmac.

Heavy-duty military vehicles were reduced to rubble in the fighting, with Western anti-tank missiles assisting in the Ukrainians' defence, Chance said.

The Russian column has been absolutely hammered," he said.

“Ukrainian officials and Ukrainian soldiers who I’ve been speaking to over the last couple of hours are absolutely enthused by this victory," Chance said.

It’s not just here. We’ve seen instances all over the country where Ukrainians have really pushed back against the Russians, and it’s really made them feel that they can win this war."

# # #

I don't think the Russians fully comprehend(ed) the reality that one Ukrainian soldier armed with one Javelin or NLAW can take literally hide from them, shoot and run off. FROM UP TO A MILE AWAY. Likely before they ever even see the dude.

And BOOOOM their armored vehicle/tank/whatever and everyone in it is dead.

giphy (15).gif
 
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If so, Russians have been really really trying to avoid indiscriminate killing then (which makes sense given their stated agenda) because they have a lot of bombs to drop in very densely populated areas. In a city of 3m it would be easy to kill 2-3k in a single bombing run without really trying too hard. If Russia determines that they cant tell civilian from foe and thus all civis are fair game, a true shock and awe subjugation strategy could start. Russia will lose in the end but in the meantime a LOT of innocent people could die just from conventional bombing.

Yeah, I don't think Putin wanted to kill Ukrainians, he wanted to rule/incorporate them into his new Russian Empire. This is why Russia has been so haphazardly fighting Ukraine. It was a psychological attack that has failed miserably.
 
Would Biden need to? How many rifles could the US citizenry bring to bear on an invading force?

4 million?

Would need the govt to keep the ammo flowing probably

4 million?? We would brandish and use 10x that number or more. I know the first 4 of mine I would grab.
 
I was young during the end of the Cold War. I was 19 during 9/11, which was very scary in its own way, but this feels different. It’s just so random and unnecessary. It doesn’t make sense. There’s no rhyme or reason and it honestly scares the hell out of me. For the first time in my life there is an absolute feeling of apprehension going into the next day that there really is someone crazy enough to set off a chain of events that can’t be reversed. I don’t know if this is what it felt like 60 years ago, but it’s an uneasy feeling that I haven’t experienced before.
It makes sense from the perspective of Putin. His country lost the Cold War, modern day Russia is in a compromised position because of it, his country is dying (literally) and he has a limited time to make one last stand. Russia's current borders do not plug all the access points like the Soviet Union's did. Ukraine is one of those access points. I think he knows that NATO would never actually invade Russia, but this is also about keeping NATO influence out of territory he considers to be in his sphere of influence. Putin does not want to be a bit player in a show that someone else runs. He wants to run his own show.

I am fairly young myself, but also a history nerd and what I've found is that the world generally tends towards conflict and disorder. The postwar period and particularly the post-Cold War period are more anomalies rather than the way things normally are. From the Middle Ages until 1945, Europeans routinely fought major wars that directly involved the major powers in direct conflict with one another. The last two conflicts they fought ended up involving most of the industrialized world.

After they all blew themselves up during WWII, the only major power whose industrial base and navy survived the war intact (ours) came up with some new rules of the game, and the world has been running according to those rules ever since. However, the Cold War is over, and the US has less of a desire to continue that program than we used to. IMO, the world in some ways is reverting to the way it normally is; we just aren't used to it because we've lived during this unique time period.
 
Just talked with someone who is a fighter pilot and tied into the USAF rumor mill. Word going around USAF is there is some truth to the Ghost of Kyiv story. It is unclear if all the kills are from the ghost himself or from his squadron as a whole. But it is known that he was a retired fighter pilot that came out of retirement to help in the defense efforts. His call sign loosely translates to “Greywolf”. There is some thought that he was shot down and killed in the last day or so.

I don’t know, TIFWIW but that seems believable to me. I think there really was some badass up there and the stories might have been embellished but it doesn’t take away from what he probably did accomplish.
 
It makes sense from the perspective of Putin. His country lost the Cold War, modern day Russia is in a compromised position because of it, his country is dying (literally) and he has a limited time to make one last stand. Russia's current borders do not plug all the access points like the Soviet Union's did. Ukraine is one of those access points. I think he knows that NATO would never actually invade Russia, but this is also about keeping NATO influence out of territory he considers to be in his sphere of influence. Putin does not want to be a bit player in a show that someone else runs. He wants to run his own show.

I am fairly young myself, but also a history nerd and what I've found is that the world generally tends towards conflict and disorder. The postwar period and particularly the post-Cold War period are more anomalies rather than the way things normally are. From the Middle Ages until 1945, Europeans routinely fought major wars that directly involved the major powers in direct conflict with one another. The last two conflicts they fought ended up involving most of the industrialized world.

After they all blew themselves up during WWII, the only major power whose industrial base and navy survived the war intact (ours) came up with some new rules of the game, and the world has been running according to those rules ever since. However, the Cold War is over, and the US has less of a desire to continue that program than we used to. IMO, the world in some ways is reverting to the way it normally is; we just aren't used to it because we've lived during this unique time period.

I agree with what you’re saying . The part that I was referring to was this escalation of tensions and how quickly the idea of a nuclear exchange has risen. A week ago I don’t think many would’ve believed that we could be at this point. During the Cold War we would’ve seen a build up of Soviet Forces in East Germany and they would’ve made up another bull$hit reason to justify their aggression and they would’ve tried to get through West Germany and cut off the Atlantic to keep us from getting supplies through . They could’ve used tactical nukes on the battlefield etc, etc.., basically everyone knew the playbook. Now, it feels like Putin is just throwing stuff against the wall to see what sticks. His unpredictability is the wildcard. If he feels like he has nothing to lose then it becomes a very serious problem.
 
Just talked with someone who is a fighter pilot and tied into the USAF rumor mill. Word going around USAF is there is some truth to the Ghost of Kyiv story. It is unclear if all the kills are from the ghost himself or from his squadron as a whole. But it is known that he was a retired fighter pilot that came out of retirement to help in the defense efforts. His call sign loosely translates to “Greywolf”. There is some thought that he was shot down and killed in the last day or so.

I don’t know, TIFWIW but that seems believable to me. I think there really was some badass up there and the stories might have been embellished but it doesn’t take away from what he probably did accomplish.

There’s almost always some truth to the heroic stories in war and it doesn’t really matter how many he shot down he gives the people hope . Even someone on the sidelines and jaded by all things political like myself, loves to believe them .
 
It makes sense from the perspective of Putin. His country lost the Cold War, modern day Russia is in a compromised position because of it, his country is dying (literally) and he has a limited time to make one last stand. Russia's current borders do not plug all the access points like the Soviet Union's did. Ukraine is one of those access points. I think he knows that NATO would never actually invade Russia, but this is also about keeping NATO influence out of territory he considers to be in his sphere of influence. Putin does not want to be a bit player in a show that someone else runs. He wants to run his own show.

I am fairly young myself, but also a history nerd and what I've found is that the world generally tends towards conflict and disorder. The postwar period and particularly the post-Cold War period are more anomalies rather than the way things normally are. From the Middle Ages until 1945, Europeans routinely fought major wars that directly involved the major powers in direct conflict with one another. The last two conflicts they fought ended up involving most of the industrialized world.

After they all blew themselves up during WWII, the only major power whose industrial base and navy survived the war intact (ours) came up with some new rules of the game, and the world has been running according to those rules ever since. However, the Cold War is over, and the US has less of a desire to continue that program than we used to. IMO, the world in some ways is reverting to the way it normally is; we just aren't used to it because we've lived during this unique time period.

Interesting and a nice summation, 05.
 
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I agree with what you’re saying . The part that I was referring to was this escalation of tensions and how quickly the idea of a nuclear exchange has risen. A week ago I don’t think many would’ve believed that we could be at this point. During the Cold War we would’ve seen a build up of Soviet Forces in East Germany and they would’ve made up another bull$hit reason to justify their aggression and they would’ve tried to get through West Germany and cut off the Atlantic to keep us from getting supplies through . They could’ve used tactical nukes on the battlefield etc, etc.., basically everyone knew the playbook. Now, it feels like Putin is just throwing stuff against the wall to see what sticks. His unpredictability is the wildcard. If he feels like he has nothing to lose then it becomes a very serious problem.
Yes, it is a wild card, but people also said the same thing about Brezhnev. He was getting older, losing cognitive ability, was isolated, in poor health, and might say "F it" and do something stupid, especially because by the mid/late 70s the Soviet economy was really stagnating and they were starting to noticeably fall behind in the Cold War at that point. If you've ever seen a video of the guy, especially during his last few years in power, I totally see why people thought that. It's not all that dissimilar from the position Putin is currently is.

 
There’s almost always some truth to the heroic stories in war and it doesn’t really matter how many he shot down he gives the people hope . Even someone on the sidelines and jaded by all things political like myself, loves to believe them .
I’d say the entire Ukrainian Air Force is the “Ghost of Kyiv” - and that’s just fine with me.

Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦
 
Just talked with someone who is a fighter pilot and tied into the USAF rumor mill. Word going around USAF is there is some truth to the Ghost of Kyiv story. It is unclear if all the kills are from the ghost himself or from his squadron as a whole. But it is known that he was a retired fighter pilot that came out of retirement to help in the defense efforts. His call sign loosely translates to “Greywolf”. There is some thought that he was shot down and killed in the last day or so.

I don’t know, TIFWIW but that seems believable to me. I think there really was some badass up there and the stories might have been embellished but it doesn’t take away from what he probably did accomplish.
If he is indeed shot down and gone they should name his squadron "The Ghost Squadron" to honor the memory. Seems fitting.
 
FIFA will not let Russia play their World Cup qualifier. This is a big deal and probably will undoubtedly go over poorly in Russia.
 

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