GroverCleveland
22nd & 24th POTUS; Predecessor to 45 and 47.
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First off, Germany actually encouraged Austria-Hungary to go to war with Serbia. By 1914, Austria-Hungary was almost a puppet state of the German Empire because their leadership was very weak. Look it up, Germany pushed the war. Germany almost started WW1 in 1911 over Morocco. The only way that WW1 doesn't happen is if Kaiser Wilhelm and his general staff are not running the show in Germany.
None of the history I've read on the topic is compatible with this take. Germany made some noises seemingly encouraging Austria-Hungary and then kind of pulled back, but not really sort of way. The Kaiser was actually sailing around on his yacht when it all started. I've mentioned this in other threads that Germany was a captive of their dependency of their railway time tables for mobilization. Once Russia started mobilization and refused to back off, Germany, knowing France was obligated to Russia and the Schlieffen Plan depended on knocking out France first, pretty much had no choice but to declare war on Russia and France. Not to say the war would not have eventually happened, but Bismarck was prophetic that "... some damned foolish thing in the Balkans" would cause a general European war. In reference to an earlier mention of early Russian success, that pretty much occurred because (1) Russia mobilized faster than anticipated and (2) lack of German troops in the east.
Austria-Hungary was not really a puppet state of Germany until 1917 when her military was pretty much spent and depending on the annual class of conscripts. At that point, Ludendorff and Hindenburg imposed their will on Austria in exchange for further German military assistance.