Weekly NCAA MBB AP T25 Thread

#51
#51
VolFreakJosh said:
I'm sorry but Duke is not good this year. I wouldn't count that as an "impressive win".
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It's more impressive than you think. Duke got a big win against Louisville last night. Also, Duke is basically the UT of college basketball this season. 4 of their 6 losses were by one possession - 4 losses by a total of 13 points - it's not like they were getting beat by 10+ every game like ppl want you to think. A couple of good bounces or better breaks and Duke could be a 2 loss team and top 5 in the country. And this is all without their most important player, Amile Jefferson. So let's not say they're not any good. Duke, like UK, is a team no one will want to play in the tournament, especially if Jefferson comes back.
 
#52
#52
BUBear said:
Sports writers are old, lazy and set in their ways. They are voting for the name on the jersey and not the product on the court. If they vote against the blue bloods then they also have to admit they were wrong about their recruiting rankings. We all know the media is never wrong.
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I suspect you've got some validity in what you are saying. Four weeks ago my Ducks had ONE vote in the AP. They beat USC and all of a sudden they are #23 in just one week. Couple more wins the next week and they are #16, Two more wins the next week and they are #11. In ONE month they go from ONE VOTE to #11.

Don't get me wrong, I think the Ducks have a great team with great chemistry and deserve to be where they are in the polls. I just couldn't believe they only had ONE vote four weeks ago. It was like the voters just weren't doing their job of trying to produce any sort of legit representation of the best teams in the country.
 
#53
#53
GoDucks349 said:
I just couldn't believe they only had ONE vote four weeks ago. It was like the voters just weren't doing their job of trying to produce any sort of legit representation of the best teams in the country.
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Four weeks ago the Ducks only had a win against Baylor. Most of their impressive work was after they got that vote.
 
#54
#54
LittleCat said:
Four weeks ago the Ducks only had a win against Baylor. Most of their impressive work was after they got that vote.
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I don't think that's quite correct. I believe four weeks ago they were ranked #7 in RPI. And I think three or four teams they had beaten at that point were previously ranked and/or were receiving more votes than the Ducks. Valpo and Utah come to mind.
 
#55
#55
VolFreakJosh said:
I'm sorry but Duke is not good this year. I wouldn't count that as an "impressive win".
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Duke is still a name and they're not the same team without Amile Jefferson. Their BPI is 10th and RPI is like 22nd or something because of their schedule. They're a lock for the tournament as of today and a neutral site win over a tournament team is always a good thing. This isn't last years Duke by no means but a "bad" Duke is still better than a lot of other teams.
 
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#56
#56
GoDucks349 said:
I don't think that's quite correct. I believe four weeks ago they were ranked #7 in RPI. And I think three or four teams they had beaten at that point were previously ranked and/or were receiving more votes than the Ducks. Valpo and Utah come to mind.
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All I did was look back at before/after Jan. 8th. Only 2 of the 8 top 50 wins were before "four weeks ago". I didn't include Valpo b/c I simply didn't know how legit Valpo is/was. Utah was after the "4 weeks ago". It seemed to me most of their work was done starting at that Cal game.
 
#57
#57
BUBear said:
Sports writers are old, lazy and set in their ways. They are voting for the name on the jersey and not the product on the court. If they vote against the blue bloods then they also have to admit they were wrong about their recruiting rankings. We all know the media is never wrong.
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This is more true about coaches than the media
 
#58
#58
kid50 said:
It's more impressive than you think. Duke got a big win against Louisville last night. Also, Duke is basically the UT of college basketball this season. 4 of their 6 losses were by one possession - 4 losses by a total of 13 points - it's not like they were getting beat by 10+ every game like ppl want you to think. A couple of good bounces or better breaks and Duke could be a 2 loss team and top 5 in the country. And this is all without their most important player, Amile Jefferson. So let's not say they're not any good. Duke, like UK, is a team no one will want to play in the tournament, especially if Jefferson comes back.
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Eh. Still a Sweet Sixteen team at absolute best IMO
 
#59
#59
GoDucks349 said:
I suspect you've got some validity in what you are saying. Four weeks ago my Ducks had ONE vote in the AP. They beat USC and all of a sudden they are #23 in just one week. Couple more wins the next week and they are #16, Two more wins the next week and they are #11. In ONE month they go from ONE VOTE to #11.

Don't get me wrong, I think the Ducks have a great team with great chemistry and deserve to be where they are in the polls. I just couldn't believe they only had ONE vote four weeks ago. It was like the voters just weren't doing their job of trying to produce any sort of legit representation of the best teams in the country.
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It's sad to say but that's how the voters roll. You and I both know that your Ducks have a hell of a team but it took wins over names on jerseys (Arizona, Stanford, UCLA, USC and Utah) for the voters to sit up and take notice. Heck, I knew once y'all had defeated Scott and Bryce Drew in a six day span. Way too much East Coast bias in the voting. If Larry Brown were doing what he is doing at SMU in the ETZ the voters would have him in the Top Five.
 
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#60
#60
VKAman said:
This is more true about coaches than the media
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Most coaches give their votes to others within the athletic department. Between coaching, game planning, recruiting and scouting they have very little time to spend following other programs. On the other hand, the media has nothing but time on their hands.
 
#61
#61
VKAman said:
Eh. Still a Sweet Sixteen team at absolute best IMO
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Depends on how Jefferson is when/if he returns. If he can return to somewhere near the form he was at when he was hurt they can make a deep run, but with all national champs, it depends on who you have to play. But I think if they get a 6 seed they can make a deeper run bc they really have no pressure on them. They also just got their biggest win of season against a good team so now the monkey on their back of have not beaten a good team is gone, that can't hurt.
 
#62
#62
VKAman said:
Eh. Still a Sweet Sixteen team at absolute best IMO
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Top 16 would be ideally the one-four seeds. A four seed is right around where Duke probably should be imo. I wouldn't think a S16 would be bad at all for them this year. Same for UK. Both are good teams, but have had trouble.
 
#63
#63
LittleCat said:
Top 16 would be ideally the one-four seeds. A four seed is right around where Duke probably should be imo. I wouldn't think a S16 would be bad at all for them this year. Same for UK. Both are good teams, but have had trouble.
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I agree. I'd actually have them seeded lower and probably losing in Round 2, but getting Jefferson back will bump up their seeding and maybe get them further.
 
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#64
#64
LittleCat said:
Top 16 would be ideally the one-four seeds. A four seed is right around where Duke probably should be imo. I wouldn't think a S16 would be bad at all for them this year. Same for UK. Both are good teams, but have had trouble.
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Reality Check........ Teams that do well at the end of the season tend to get the better seeding come tourney time. Duke is 4-4 over the last 8 games. That does not get any team a high seed. Duke has a #22 RPI ranking and only Texas and Utah have higher RPIs with worse records. And Duke lost to Utah at HOME. So at the very best a 21 seed would be reasonable.

Given the recent 4-4 record I'd realistically expect them in tot be a 8-10 seed. Certainly if they win the next 3 games against VA, NC and Louisville they will have a much better seed.

At this point, only way they get a top 16 is because of what they have done in previous seasons and not the current season.
 
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#65
#65
GoDucks349 said:
Reality Check........ Teams that do well at the end of the season tend to get the better seeding come tourney time. Duke is 4-4 over the last 8 games. That does not get any team a high seed. Duke has a #22 RPI ranking and only Texas and Utah have higher RPIs with worse records. And Duke lost to Utah at HOME. So at the very best a 21 seed would be reasonable.

Given the recent 4-4 record I'd realistically expect them in tot be a 8-10 seed. Certainly if they win the next 3 games against VA, NC and Louisville they will have a much better seed.

At this point, only way they get a top 16 is because of what they have done in previous seasons and not the current season.
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Duke lost to Utah in MSG, which is essentially home, but not exactly Cameron Indoor .
 
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#66
#66
RDU VOL#14 said:
Duke lost to Utah in MSG, which is essentially home, but not exactly Cameron Indoor .
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Thanks, forgot that. It just shows as a home game on the Duke ESPN website schedule. Still a team with a similar record beats you. It would be expected that the team winning would get a higher seed.

Dukes schedule gets a bit tough over the next couple weeks. If they do well they move up quickly, if they lose two of the next three they move down. Especially with 8 losses.
 
#67
#67
GoDucks349 said:
Reality Check........ Teams that do well at the end of the season tend to get the better seeding come tourney time. Duke is 4-4 over the last 8 games. That does not get any team a high seed. Duke has a #22 RPI ranking and only Texas and Utah have higher RPIs with worse records. And Duke lost to Utah at HOME. So at the very best a 21 seed would be reasonable.

Given the recent 4-4 record I'd realistically expect them in tot be a 8-10 seed. Certainly if they win the next 3 games against VA, NC and Louisville they will have a much better seed.

At this point, only way they get a top 16 is because of what they have done in previous seasons and not the current season.
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If they play even a little better once Jefferson is healthy, the committee will take his injury into account and pay special attention to how they played when he was healthy (which was generally well). That's why I think they'll get a higher seed than people expect, but fans will immediately freak out and cry conspiracy.
 
#68
#68
GoDucks349 said:
Thanks, forgot that. It just shows as a home game on the Duke ESPN website schedule. Still a team with a similar record beats you. It would be expected that the team winning would get a higher seed.

Dukes schedule gets a bit tough over the next couple weeks. If they do well they move up quickly, if they lose two of the next three they move down. Especially with 8 losses.
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No offense, but the Pac-12 is really bad. When Utah started losing to teams like Stanford and Oregon State, they lost the ability to claim that they should automatically get a higher seed than Duke because they beat them in OT without Jefferson.
 
#69
#69
GoDucks349 said:
Reality Check........ Teams that do well at the end of the season tend to get the better seeding come tourney time. Duke is 4-4 over the last 8 games. That does not get any team a high seed. Duke has a #22 RPI ranking and only Texas and Utah have higher RPIs with worse records. And Duke lost to Utah at HOME. So at the very best a 21 seed would be reasonable.

Given the recent 4-4 record I'd realistically expect them in tot be a 8-10 seed. Certainly if they win the next 3 games against VA, NC and Louisville they will have a much better seed.

At this point, only way they get a top 16 is because of what they have done in previous seasons and not the current season.
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Reality check... Duke lost to Utah by 2 and was a missed finger roll from potentially winning. Four of Duke's 6 losses were by a possession or less and Duke has zero bad losses. Ppl will cry conspiracy if Duke gets a good seed, but the reality is they're not as bad as ppl want you to believe. If they get a good seed it's more than justifiable. Cry all you want, but the writing is on the wall for them to get a high seed as long as they win a couple more games.
 
#70
#70
VKAman said:
No offense, but the Pac-12 is really bad. When Utah started losing to teams like Stanford and Oregon State, they lost the ability to claim that they should automatically get a higher seed than Duke because they beat them in OT without Jefferson.
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I'm not saying Utah is a great team, but they are every bit as good as say, Syracuse, Clemson or ND all of which also beat Duke.

And NO the PAC-12 isn't "really bad" this year. Oregon State also beat my Ducks in Corvallis. They are a bit of an up and down team headed in the right direction with some kid named "Gary Payton II" at the point.

Stanford with a 2 point home win over Utah is not a good team. So I'll agree that was a bad loss for Utah.
 
#71
#71
kid50 said:
Reality check... Duke lost to Utah by 2 and was a missed finger roll from potentially winning. Four of Duke's 6 losses were by a possession or less and Duke has zero bad losses. Ppl will cry conspiracy if Duke gets a good seed, but the reality is they're not as bad as ppl want you to believe. If they get a good seed it's more than justifiable. Cry all you want, but the writing is on the wall for them to get a high seed as long as they win a couple more games.
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Um, sounds like you're doing a bit of the crying. That's not my thing. I'm just saying as you said, they need some more wins to get a better seed.
 
#72
#72
GoDucks349 said:
Um, sounds like you're doing a bit of the crying. That's not my thing. I'm just saying as you said, they need some more wins to get a better seed.
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The reality check is that you're right and wrong. Yes, teams that finish well get a better seeding. The determination of whether or not Duke gets a better seeding based on their finish began with NC St over the weekend, and got better last night. If they play well with the tough schedule they have the rest of the way, they could easily get bumped to a 4 seed.
 
#73
#73
GoDucks349 said:
Thanks, forgot that. It just shows as a home game on the Duke ESPN website schedule. Still a team with a similar record beats you. It would be expected that the team winning would get a higher seed.

Dukes schedule gets a bit tough over the next couple weeks. If they do well they move up quickly, if they lose two of the next three they move down. Especially with 8 losses.
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It does get more difficult, but if Duke wins next Wednesday in Chapel Hill it is really back in the mix. I'm more confident than I was a week ago, nothing ceases to amaze me when those 2 teams get together.
GO TO HELL CAROLINA! GO TO HELL!
 
#74
#74
RDU VOL#14 said:
It does get more difficult, but if Duke wins next Wednesday in Chapel Hill it is really back in the mix. I'm more confident than I was a week ago, nothing ceases to amaze me when those 2 teams get together.
GO TO HELL CAROLINA! GO TO HELL!
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In a earlier post, I think I basically agreed with what you are saying. If they win the next three things change big time. if they win 2 of three that will be good for them. If they lose 2 or more they will go further down in the seeding process. These three games are critical for Duke
 
#75
#75
OU managed to come out flat as a pancake today. I'd expect them to drop significantly this coming week.
 
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