What has to happen for Tennessee to get into the playoffs now?

#301
#301
Woodlawn VOL said:
I was under the impression the group of 5 winner took the 5th seed. No way a mountain west winner should get a top 4 ranked 12th. All I have heard from Espn is the top 4 champs in the power 4 get the top 4 spots. I was thinking that Boise had moved into the big 12 for some reason. I guarantee you this type of format will not be used after 2026, lesser conferences should have to be ranked in the top 12 and should be seeded according to ranking. This should be about the best 12 getting in. Having said all that I am confident if we take care of business we will be in the playoffs. GBO
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You may think that is "all you have heard from ESPN", but that is NOT what you have actually heard
 
#302
#302
GMRobbins said:
Guess we all need to become Gator fans this weekend ..... and MS State or Yellowjacket fans the following weekend!

Actually, would love to keep Ole Miss in the picture and watch Auburn and Ga Tech wipe out their rivals Thanksgiving weekend.
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I don’t care who loses as long as it helps get us in. Still, we have to take care of our own business for it to matter. GBO
 
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#303
#303
JMSqb11 said:
You may think that is "all you have heard from ESPN", but that is NOT what you have actually heard
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I have heard the sec network and ESPN say the champs in the power 4 get the bye’s. Don’t tell me what I have heard. They may have misspoke but that’s what they said. All this doesn’t matter, we have to win out and one misstep in several scenarios gets us in. I like where we are, no guarantees but a good chance to make it in. GBO
 
#304
#304
I think they will change this in ‘26. It was a way to reward conference champs and the assumption is the top 4 champs would usually come from the P4 but that kind of forget that almost all of the elite programs have moved into three conferences now.

But yeah it’s highest ranked conference champs get the top four bids regardless of conference. And then the next highest gets the fifth auto (which can be seeded anywhere from 5 to 12).
 
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#305
#305
Woodlawn VOL said:
I have heard the sec network and ESPN say the champs in the power 4 get the bye’s. Don’t tell me what I have heard. They may have misspoke but that’s what they said. All this doesn’t matter, we have to win out and one misstep in several scenarios gets us in. I like where we are, no guarantees but a good chance to make it in. GBO
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You are saying the network who has spent weeks explaining the format and seeding lied on air to you and you only.... You must have special tv channel
 
#306
#306
ENGRVOL said:
Really if we win out we just need one of the 4 to happen
1. Notre dame lose to army or at usc
2. Ole Miss to lose in the swamp
3. Penn state to lose to either Maryland or Minnesota
4. Alabama loses to Oklahoma or Auburn

Each are unlikely but just need one to happen. Hate to say it but Florida winning may be our best chance
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Yep, and why not add Texas loss to Kentucky as well
 
#307
#307
KTrain said:
I believe the same thing about Indiana but if they play it close with OSU they may have a path. It will be interesting to see how OSU plays if they get up say 14. Will they just go conservative, run clock and take a 2 score win or less to give another conference team a chance and bring some extra dollars in for the B1G.
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The committee might not look at that favorable either. Everybody will be watching, they will be watching the men in stripes too. You know the big 10 wants them to keep it close. I think Penn St is in jeopardy if they lose to Minnesota as well. Many scenarios for us to move up as long as we win out and look good. GBO
 
#309
#309
JMSqb11 said:
You are saying the network who has spent weeks explaining the format and seeding lied on air to you and you only.... You must have special tv channel
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Dude I didn’t say nobody lied. I don’t listen 24-7, maybe folks talking when I was listening were just giving their opinion I don’t know. The format is the format move on. So many teams moving to different conferences and I don’t keep up with mountain west teams. Quit being a prick. I said I was wrong. I still like our position. And I would be willing to bet these lesser conferences will have to make the top 12 to get in after 2026. The mountain west has no business getting a automatic bid in my opinion but that is for another day it is what it is.
 
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#310
#310
UT97Vol said:
I think they will change this in ‘26. It was a way to reward conference champs and the assumption is the top 4 champs would usually come from the P4 but that kind of forget that almost all of the elite programs have moved into three conferences now.

But yeah it’s highest ranked conference champs get the top four bids regardless of conference. And then the next highest gets the fifth auto (which can be seeded anywhere from 5 to 12
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UT97Vol said:
I think they will change this in ‘26. It was a way to reward conference champs and the assumption is the top 4 champs would usually come from the P4 but that kind of forget that almost all of the elite programs have moved into three conferences now.

But yeah it’s highest ranked conference champs get the top four bids regardless of conference. And then the next highest gets the fifth auto (which can be seeded anywhere from 5 to 12).
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Your correct, I think so many folks have opinions a lot of times we are hearing folks opinions. Boise is a good team maybe even playoff worthy but in no way do I believe they are deserving of a 4 seed and I think most would agree.
 
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#311
#311
I have been studying this for over a week. This is how I see it, after we beat UTEP and Vandy.
The Vols have many paths to make the playoffs-only need 1 of these:

ND loses to Army or USC-41%
Ohio State slaughters Indiana =~30%
Ole Miss loses to UF or Miss St.=27%
Bama loses to Oklahoma or Auburn=24%
Texas loses to Tam or Ky-22%
Georgia loses to Georgia Tech-10%
Bama beats TAM-SECCG-Bama 11-2 Tam 10-3 -Vols pass Tam and Tex 10-2=~30%
Bama whips Texas-SECCG-Bama 11-2 Tex 11-2 -Vols pass Tex=~20%
Texas whips Bama in SECCG-Tex 12-1 Bama 10-3 -Vols might pass Bama=~5%
TAM whips Bama in SECCG-Tam 11-2 Bama 10-3 -Vols might pass Bama=~3%
 
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#312
#312
All this wailing and gnashing of teeth is a useless exercise. The picture will be clearer in a couple of weeks and if you we miss out then it is the time to biotch. I do agree that I am a gator fan this weekend and hope ole miss goes down. I fully expect several upsets. Go Army.
 
#314
#314
JMSqb11 said:
Correct. I think the argument / comparison of an 11-1 Indiana with a blowout loss to OSU vs a 10-2 Tennessee would be interesting. In regards to pure fan travel and money generation, Tennessee wins easily.... CFP doesn't want blowouts in the first edition of the expanded playoff
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No, they really don’t care. The first year of the playoffs saw 2 of the 3 games result in blowouts.

That year’s championship became the new most-watched cable broadcast at the time. That year’s Sugar Bowl and Rose Bowl (the semifinals) broke viewership records and placed second and third all-time, respectively.

They know everyone’s making bank this year, regardless.
 
#315
#315
ZoeVol said:
I have been studying this for over a week. This is how I see it, after we beat UTEP and Vandy.
The Vols have many paths to make the playoffs-only need 1 of these:

ND looses to Army or USC-41%
Ohio State slaughters Indiana =~30%
Ole Miss looses to UF or Miss St.=27%
Bama looses to Oklahoma or Auburn=24%
Texas looses to Tam or Ky-22%
Georgia looses to Georgia Tech-10%
Bama beats TAM-SECCG-Bama 11-2 Tam 10-3 -Vols pass Tam and Tex 10-2=~30%
Bama whips Texas-SECCG-Bama 11-2 Tex 11-2 -Vols pass Tex=~20%
Texas whips Bama in SECCG-Tex 12-1 Bama 10-3 -Vols might pass Bama=~5%
TAM whips Bama in SECCG-Tam 11-2 Bama 10-3 -Vols might pass Bama=~3%
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Play too loose and you might lose the game.
 
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#316
#316
TrueOrange said:
Not even sure the probabilities are that high.
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It's pretty close. Just going off of ESPN, Notre Dame has an 87.5% chance to beat Army/a 67% chance to beat USC so they have a ~60% chance to win both games.

I don't think there's any realistic chance of Army beating Notre Dame, and if that does occur you likely vault the AAC winner into the playoffs so you'd need to start considering where the AAC/ACC/Big XII/MWC champs land in the final ranking, but USC has had a lot of very close losses and they get Notre Dame at home.

The Vols don't have a ton of leeway, and taking care of business in Nashville is obviously of paramount importance, but it seems incredibly unlikely that none of the one or two-loss teams (aside from Texas since a loss to A&M creates a different problem) ahead of the Vols lose another game in the regular season. I'd be surprised if 10-2 Tennessee doesn't wind up sneaking into the playoffs.
 
#322
#322
Relax…. As long as we take care of business we are in. How often does the Top 10 go 10-0 mid to late season? Not very……We’ve got 3 weeks to win and watch
 
#323
#323
UTodd01 said:
Why does everyone think OSU has to "slaughter" Indiana? One loss and they're out no matter how it comes.
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There is a fear when you have a 1 loss team who plays close on the road against one of the top programs (at least in the committee's eyes) that the committee will see that as "proof" they belong.

OSU didn't suffer a lot by losing to Oregon on the road by 1 point. Penn St clearly didn't suffer from their loss at home to OSU. The same could be inferred if Indiana loses a close one to OSU since the Committee doesn't punish teams as harshly for close road losses.

There is a real chance that Indiana and Penn St get into the CFP without a single ranked win.
 
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