The only game Hart needs to recognize is that this program desperately needs stability. And what "winner" is going to walk in here and be the 5th coach in 8 years? Sure, the roster is a little better now than it was when Butch took over, but not to the point where a proven coach is going to leave a top job to come to Tennessee.
Best case scenario if Butch leaves is that we get another Butch Jones. A young energetic guy with a good W/L record at a mid-major program.
This all complete speculation right now, so it's almost a pointless conversation. But if Michigan did offer Butch, Hart has to counter. He can't let him walk, even if it's risky to pay a coach who hasn't won much at this program.
You mentioned this program being set back by a decade when Kiffin left. I think we'll be "back" and nationally relevant in 2016, but it could easily be a decade if Butch left and we started all over again with someone else.
This program was very, very close to being left for dead by Dooley. Butch has done so much work behind the scenes and off the field that it's almost unbelievable at this point. At some point he has to start winning games, but I believe that will come in time.