Bravo, I pulled the numbers from last years home attendance. In conference we averaged 18,333, if you take away Kentucky and Florida like you're saying we averaged 17,364.
So...in a year where the team struggled, didn't meet some fans expectations, and for a long time appeared nothing like a NCAA team...they averaged 17,364 in attendance for non Florida/Kentucky games.
You point out the 14.5k for Presb, so that shows you the window last year, somewhere between 14.5-17.5 for games not including Kentucky and Florida. So you're telling me, that if the team is better than they were last year, is ranked, and is on their way to the dance...that they won't pull better numbers?
I personally don't think the opponent matters as much as you're saying. Yes we draw bigger crowds for Kentucky and Florida, always do...I personally feel though that the games last year where we drew 15-16k because they weren't good opponents and we were a .500 team, that next year if we are ranked top 25 and sitting 6-1 coming out o Atlantis we will draw 16-17k for those games. Then hit conference where the numbers are proven to increase and I think we'll average about 18-19k a game in conference.
I would also count MIZZ as a in conference big ticket. That was the biggest croud of the year. They will continue to draw a big croud at TBA. So taking away KY, FL, MIZZ to in conference is 16,631. Take OOC and Conf. games and subtract the big ticket games (Xavier, Memphis, MIZZ, FL, KY) and the attendance is right at 16K. The 5 big ticket games last year we had 20,210 average. More than 4K difference. There will be no Memphis or Xavier type crouds at ANY OOC games this year. 19.5K is not going to see VA play at TBA like we saw at Memphis. School is out for about 3 weeks and playing crap schools at that time will only bring in season ticket totals for OOC during that span unless we see a Memphis, UCONN, Pitt, Texas, etc..
In conference we will have Ark, USCjr, A&M, and Vandy. Those are a given. We will lose the home / away series with Ole Miss, Bama, KY, GA. If we pull home games with GA and Ole Miss and away with Bama and KY, then that leaves 3 more home games that will be between MSU, LSU, Aub, FL, MIZZ.
So, best OOC game is VA.
Conference schedule should be
Ark
S.C.
A&M
Vandy
Ole Miss/Bama
GA
3 of the 5 (MSU, LSU, Aub, FL, MIZZ)
If we don't pull the Home / Away with FL and MIZZ, then IMO it will be hard to increase attendance. IMO FL will be a given with them being a rival and losing KY. So, we are looking at "potentionally" 1 big ticket all year vs. 5 last year.
If you add 1K in attendance to the season ticket average for OOC next year and 1K to the average conference without big ticket games + FL, then the average attendance is right at what it was this year of 17.5K. You NEED the big ticket games.
IMO I don't think we will see that much of a bump in season ticket holders, but we will see.