How long before we win SEC CHAMPIONSHIP????

#202
#202
I don't know about the above argument, but CBJ's himself told us all, "You are what your record says you are". Based on those words from CBJ, I guess Florida had (this year) more talent than we did (this year), or CBJ is just plain wrong.
 
#203
#203
ReaderVol said:
It is unusual behavior for a fan to do isn't it. And yes daj was spot on maybe even a little conservative.
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Vol fans didn't want to hear it then, Gator fans don't want to hear it now.

It's funny how people tend to try to change reality to fit their perception, instead of the opposite.
 
#205
#205
daj2576 said:
Vol fans didn't want to hear it then, Gator fans don't want to hear it now.

It's funny how people tend to try to change reality to fit their perception, instead of the opposite.
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You still think this is a good UF team? How? Have you look at what they're doing on the field?

If UT and UF were playing in Atlanta on Saturday would you still favor UF?
 
#206
#206
Boca Vol said:
You still think this is a good UF team? How? Have you look at what they're doing on the field?

If UT and UF were playing in Atlanta on Saturday would you still favor UF?
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Talent evaluations show that UF has not lost a game they should have won, nor won a game they should have lost. What I see is a team that is performing very tightly within expectations. I expect (70%) that trend to continue on Saturday, with an L for them. It is immaterial to this evaluation if they lose by 1000 or 1.
 
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#207
#207
daj2576 said:
Talent evaluations show that UF has not lost a game they should have won, nor won a game they should have lost. What I see is a team that is performing very tightly within expectations. I expect (70%) that trend to continue on Saturday, with an L for them. It is immaterial to this evaluation if they lose by 1000 or 1.
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So back to my question, if the 2 teams were playing this Sat. In ATL...who do you think wins?
 
#208
#208
Boca Vol said:
So back to my question, if the 2 teams were playing this Sat. In ATL...who do you think wins?
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Florida. But you knew the answer to that before you asked which is why I didn't answer it as succinctly to begin with. I thought you might have thought that Florida was under-performing in relation to talent, which is simply not true. You know how I evaluate wins and losses because we've discussed it several times. Unless UT shoe-horned a couple of top five classes into the roster during the season, a rematch wouldn't be evaluated (with this evaluation) differently than the initial match-up.
 
#209
#209
daj2576 said:
Florida. But you knew the answer to that before you asked which is why I didn't answer it as succinctly to begin with. I thought you might have thought that Florida was under-performing in relation to talent, which is simply not true. You know how I evaluate wins and losses because we've discussed it several times. Unless UT shoe-horned a couple of top five classes into the roster during the season, a rematch wouldn't be evaluated (with this evaluation) differently than the initial match-up.
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On the flip side, I personally feel confident this would be one of those 30% times when the model predicted wrongly. Because, second time around, we would whup dey azz. :)
 
#210
#210
daj2576 said:
Talent evaluations show that UF has not lost a game they should have won, nor won a game they should have lost. What I see is a team that is performing very tightly within expectations. I expect (70%) that trend to continue on Saturday, with an L for them. It is immaterial to this evaluation if they lose by 1000 or 1.
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The only thing that skews the recruiting rankings for FSU and UF is the 2015 class. The other 3 classes would have favored UF (on average...5-7). Still not enough of a difference in my book.
 
#211
#211
daj2576 said:
Florida. But you knew the answer to that before you asked which is why I didn't answer it as succinctly to begin with. I thought you might have thought that Florida was under-performing in relation to talent, which is simply not true. You know how I evaluate wins and losses because we've discussed it several times. Unless UT shoe-horned a couple of top five classes into the roster during the season, a rematch wouldn't be evaluated (with this evaluation) differently than the initial match-up.
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No, I think UF has been mis-evaluated. The rankings don't take into account "need." They're just numbers driven...and Rivals doesn't even count all the players! For instance, I would rate Trevor Daniel very highly as an impact player for UT. Where is he in the rankings? He's not.

Here's another example, if a team went out and signed all the top defensive players in the country...ALL 5 & 4 stars. Under this system that team would easily have the #1 class. But they didn't sign any offensive player, but who cares, right?

Back to UF & FSU, the main difference is the 2015 class. Otherwise UF would be the more "talented" team on paper.
 
#212
#212
VFL-82-JP said:
On the flip side, I personally feel confident this would be one of those 30% times when the model predicted wrongly. Because, second time around, we would whup dey azz. :)
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Personally, I agree with that evaluation.

Realistically, I stick relatively close to the model's predictions.
 
#213
#213
Boca Vol said:
No, I think UF has been mis-evaluated. The rankings don't take into account "need." They're just numbers driven...and Rivals doesn't even count all the players! For instance, I would rate Trevor Daniel very highly as an impact player for UT. Where is he in the rankings? He's not.

Here's another example, if a team went out and signed all the top defensive players in the country...ALL 5 & 4 stars. Under this system that team would easily have the #1 class. But they didn't sign any offensive player, but who cares, right?

Back to UF & FSU, the main difference is the 2015 class. Otherwise UF would be the more "talented" team on paper.
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So what you are saying is that the talent evaluation says you're wrong, the on the field matchup says you're wrong, but you've found a way to convince yourself that you're right?

Look, I get it. I've been in sports analytics long enough to know that data doesn't tend to move people from their firmly held beliefs.
 
#214
#214
daj2576 said:
So what you are saying is that the talent evaluation says you're wrong, the on the field matchup says you're wrong, but you've found a way to convince yourself that you're right?

Look, I get it. I've been in sports analytics long enough to know that data doesn't tend to move people from their firmly held beliefs.
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I don't rank classes equally. I would tilt it towards upper-classmen (starters) or experience.

A 5 star that didn't pan out or was injury prone didn't provide 5 star production. It happens. Just like the Trevor Daniel's of the world...and Cam Sutton's.
 
#215
#215
When will the Vols beat Florida is the first question to be asked. As long as the Gators keep spanking that Big Orange butt every year any talk about SEC Championships is futile.
 
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#216
#216
Buster1972 said:
When will the Vols beat Florida is the first question to be asked. As long as the Gators keep spanking that Big Orange butt every year any talk about SEC Championships is futile.
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:thumbsup:agreed. let's reconvene on 9-25-16, then we can talk.
 
#218
#218
Boca Vol said:
I don't rank classes equally. I would tilt it towards upper-classmen (starters) or experience.

A 5 star that didn't pan out or was injury prone didn't provide 5 star production. It happens. Just like the Trevor Daniel's of the world...and Cam Sutton's.
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Well how often are you right insofar as your predictions matching the actual results?
 
#219
#219
If UT and UF were playing in Atlanta on Saturday would you still favor UF?[/QUOTE]

UT would beat uf easily now--without grier, their offense is terrible.
 
#223
#223
I think Tennessee Has the toughest road each year to get to the sec Champiknship. Tennessee has to play Bama yearly which as long as Saban is there, is the toughest game we got. Florida's is pretty tough because they get LSU yearly. All this being said,, as long as Saban is at Bama winking the sec is going to be almost impossible. That means most likely beating them twice in 1 year
 
#224
#224
KBVol said:
So, if I understand correctly....Florida, who you had going 7-5 before the season, is not considerably better due to anything CJM or his staff have done, it's because they're vastly more talented than EVEN YOU knew. Well, they haven't looked very talented at all the last 2 games I've seen them play vs Vandy and Fla Atlantic....yet they found a way to win....with, at best, a very inexperienced, patchwork OL that had 10 career starts (all from one guy), a pedestrian soph QB, a true freshman and true soph and converted soph RB at WR. Also had some injuries to that defense at linebacker and in the secondary, yet they've continued to win under a first year coach.

You had a very talented Tennessee team (I agree with you there) going 10-2 (I was almost with you, thought 9-3 was a fair projection).....what reason(s) do you attribute to their falling short this year?
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First of all, Florida's senior, junior, and sophomore classes were all rated top 10 recruiting classes. While only our freshmen and sophomore classes were rated top 10 recruiting classes. So they did have more experienced talent per the recruiting ratings. So saying Florida has the more talented roster isn't without merit.

Second, I attribute our losses to a combination of inexperience, poor coaching, bad luck, and great opponents. Oklahoma and Alabama are playoff teams so those losses while unfortunate are signs imo that we're not quite there yet but we're close. Florida was the most brutal loss cause we were the better team most of that game and without several blunders we're in Atlanta right now. Arkansas is a game I write off. Team and coaches were emotionally gutted after the Florida game.
 
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