I was wondering the same thing yesterday, so I did a little research. Looking at seasons back to 1985 for comparison, I compared average points scored and allowed per game and looking at the line of scrimmage, I compared rushing yards gained and allowed per game. Other variables apply such as quarterback play, turnovers percentage, and field goals percentage but not as much as the two obvious statistics.
What I found was a simple formula, you have to score twice as much as you allow on defense and you have to be on the positive side rushing the ball versus allowed rushing.
1998 NC team was a plus 108 rushing, the highest percentage going back thirty years, defense allowed 14.5 points per game while offense scored 31.
When looking at Fulmer years after 1998, defense were normally solid however the offense production went down sporadically, when Cutcliffe wasn't there especially noticeable was our ability to run the ball.
During the dooley time passing yards went up however rushing the ball went down and defense numbers got worse every year.
Since Butch has taken over I found something very positive, every year offense point production went up and defensively points allowed went down. This year we are on the positive side rushing the ball by a +62, the highest total differential in a very long time. We are averaging 32 points per game and allowing 20,5 points per game. WE ARE FOUR POINTS DIFFERENTIAL FROM WINNING CHAMPIONSHIPS. Ironically, our four losses total 17 points, 4.25 points per game. Three SEC games lost by only 10 points, 3.33 points per game.
In summary, if Butch and this team can make the same improvement next year as they have made in the three previous seasons, we will be seriously in the championship hunt next year. A team effort by improving offensively by three points per game and defense dropping points allowed by three will give us a six point differential, and based on the present trend that is a realistic possibility and formula for a championship run.
Championships are usually won by three plays during a season, a defensive stop on 4 and 14, a made field goal, a first down to run the clock, or a force turnover. Think 1998 versus this year. Sometimes you need a little luck along the way or simply make a crucial play in the fourth quarter.
Happy Thanksgiving, VFL