Official March Madness Thread

#101
#101
Imo the games today are clearly tournament games . Ur telling me these teams set on the edge of there seat to play in a game to make the tournament... of course not . Was it also announced on the tournament selection show . Clearly tournament games
 
#103
#103
SaguaroVols said:
Just saying that they are not overrated like you say. They are legit. They had issues at the beginning of the year but now are finding a rhythm with Ayton and the rest of the team. Been very consistent towards the end of the season. Solid but not spectacular.

That’s why they are a trendy pick.

UK has been wildly inconsistent. Never know what you will get with them and their inexperience. That’s why they are a popular upset pick in the first round.
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Yes I get why they’re a tendy pick. And I’m not saying they’re arent solid. But relative to their true odds of advancing, people are picking them at too high of a rate. 5% of all brackets have them winning the tournament. That is more consistent w the odds of UNC - a 2 seed in a region w Xavier - not Arizona who has to beat UK, Virginia and Cincy or UT
 
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#104
#104
golfballs said:
Yes I get why they’re a tendy pick. And I’m not saying they’re arent solid. But relative to their true odds of advancing, people are picking them at too high of a rate. 5% of all brackets have them winning the tournament. That is more consistent w the odds of UNC - a 2 seed in a region w Xavier - not Arizona who has to beat UK, Virginia and Cincy or UT
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Between the arrest of their assistant coach, the FBI stuff, and the Trier suspension, people love a good story and would love to see them win it all.

A lot of the common folk making bracket picks aren’t following basketball closely and make picks based on highlight players such as Ayton or what they see/hear on the news or are just basically guessing. Wouldn’t put too much stock in that 5 percent number.

Vegas oddsmakers has Arizona at 4/1 and UNC at 5/2 which seems about right.
 
#105
#105
Thunder Good-Oil said:
As young as KY is, I don't put much weight in an early season loss to UCLA.
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Same for Arizona with me. 3 of their 7 losses were in November (when Alkins was out). Only lost 4 games since December 1st. (1 where Trier was suspended)

When they’re healthy this year they have some really good pieces.
 
#106
#106
SaguaroVols said:
Between the arrest of their assistant coach, the FBI stuff, and the Trier suspension, people love a good story and would love to see them win it all.

A lot of the common folk making bracket picks aren’t following basketball closely and make picks based on highlight players such as Ayton or what they see/hear on the news or are just basically guessing. Wouldn’t put too much stock in that 5 percent number.

Vegas oddsmakers has Arizona at 4/1 and UNC at 5/2 which seems about right.
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And Vegas will clean up
 
#107
#107
golfballs said:
Yes I get why they’re a tendy pick. And I’m not saying they’re arent solid. But relative to their true odds of advancing, people are picking them at too high of a rate. 5% of all brackets have them winning the tournament. That is more consistent w the odds of UNC - a 2 seed in a region w Xavier - not Arizona who has to beat UK, Virginia and Cincy or UT
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I like their odds agaainst any of them, although I went WAY against the grain on the pick contest and picked against them.
 
#108
#108
MphsBlues said:
I like their odds agaainst any of them, although I went WAY against the grain on the pick contest and picked against them.
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I think they’re a good matchup against the rest of the bracket if they can get past UK. But even at 50/50 odds it’s not good...

In the really big pools I’m in, I picked buffalo.
 
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#111
#111
Now would be a good time to take Va out of sweet 16 picks. They lost a key player - bench player, but a good one. But that's JMO..
 
#112
#112
MphsBlues said:
Now would be a good time to take Va out of sweet 16 picks. They lost a key player - bench player, but a good one. But that's JMO..
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They’re also overrated. As of the morning about 1/4 of all brackets had them as champs
 
#114
#114
golfballs said:
I think they’re a good matchup against the rest of the bracket if they can get past UK. But even at 50/50 odds it’s not good...

In the really big pools I’m in, I picked buffalo.
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This is the reason I have them in the Final Four. Not because I think they are great all of a sudden great, not because I like a great comeback story, or any other trite reason.

It's because I think they can outmatch anyone in their region. In DeAndre Ayton, they have a distinct advantage against every single possible match up in their bracket with the exception of an unlikely matchup with Texas in the Elite 8. Zona has an elite scoring SF in Trier to keep defenses from packing it in against Ayton, and good guard play to go with the most dominant big man in college basketball.

I realize that in terms of actual pool odds, going deep with them is probably not wise based on percentages, but I am going with what I think will most likely happen, not what I think can win me money based on what would be an upset. At least not in this case. I picked some statistical upsets, but to me, they won't be upsets at all if they come through.
 
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#115
#115
MphsBlues said:
Now would be a good time to take Va out of sweet 16 picks. They lost a key player - bench player, but a good one. But that's JMO..
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I think a lot of people are going to be faked out by that. To get into the Sweet 16 all UVA has to do is beat UMBC and either Creighton or Kansas St. If losing one bench player affects them that much, then they aren't going far even at full strength.
 
#116
#116
Trae Young is good, but he's going to struggle massively in the NBA if he doesn't improve. Not as good of a passer as advertised. Makes a ton of mistakes. If you're going to shoot like Curry, you have to hit like Curry. Not efficient either. Not that he was on a great team, but there's a reason they finish 18-14.
 
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#118
#118
I switched to OK at the last second because of the size advantage. Goes to show you should always go with your gut. I had them losing to Duke anyways so oh well.
 
#120
#120
LittleCat said:
Trae Young is good, but he's going to struggle massively in the NBA if he doesn't improve. Not as good of a passer as advertised. Makes a ton of mistakes. If you're going to shoot like Curry, you have to hit like Curry. Not efficient either. Not that he was on a great team, but there's a reason they finish 18-14.
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I agree. If he wouldn’t look for the flashy play or 40 foot three every time he would be very efficient. Sometimes it works but more times than not it doesn’t. There was a time in the 2nd half where he got two uncontested layups with about 7 minutes left and he went away from it and shot 2 horrible 3s. If he drives on those possessions they probably win in regulation but ended up letting RI hang around and get it to OT. He’s much more effective driving and creating rather than being stagnant and shooting bombs.
 
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