'10 CA QB Jesse Scroggins (USC Solid Verbal)

Which school will Scroggins verbally commit to tomorrow?

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#9,877
#9,877
spudvol said:
... but don't confuse the odds


Here are the odds-

In the last six years Tennessee has put one QB in the NFL making league minimum. In that same amount of time USC has put 4 QBs in the NFL who have signed contracts for $50+million each. And, to add insult to injury, USC's latest $50 million QB is probably going to put Tenn's one QB in the unemployment line.
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Odds vary with the event is being assessed. The odds are about whether riding the plank at SC is a good route to the NFL. To calculate them based on past data, you need to know the total number of pine riders at USC. A naive estimation would use that number as the denominator, and it is much larger than 1 (the numerator) represented by Matt Cassel.

Cassel was picked, in part, because Norm Chow talked about signing him after the draft as a free agent. His being drafted was a big surprise to most who follow the NFL draft. So, part of improving JS's odds of replicating the Cassel route is to have Bates take an OC job in the NFL.

Also, Cassell was picked in a draft that selected 14 QB's--and he was the 13th of 14 with Harvard's starting QB being the only one selected after him. So, using just this draft alone, playing QB at Harvard would yield similar result to the SC plank. In comparison to starting elsewhere (assuming Cassel had that option), Utah, Cal, and Auburn starting QBs were 1st round. If Cassel had started for Akron, he could have been drafted 4 rounds higher (or starting for UConn would have been two rounds higher). Two Pac 10 starters were picked ahead of Cassel, so starting in the same league for another team yielded better outcomes in the 2005 draft.

Do you know how many SC QBs rode the pine over the past 10-15 years?

As for his success with the Pats, it's very difficult to credit all of that to SC. And, even if you did, how could you posssibly credit Pete Carroll with more involvment than that of Lane Kiffin. That's really the irony of this whole debate, whatever credit you give to SC for QBs, one must consider who coached those QBs. It was not a defensive-minded head coach.
 
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#9,883
#9,883
utmba93 said:
Odds vary with the event is being assessed. The odds are about whether riding the plank at SC is a good route to the NFL. To calculate them based on past data, you need to know the total number of pine riders at USC. A naive estimation would use that number as the denominator, and it is much larger than 1 (the numerator) represented by Matt Cassel.

Cassel was picked, in part, because Norm Chow talked about signing him after the draft as a free agent. His being drafted was a big surprise to most who follow the NFL draft. So, part of improving JS's odds of replicating the Cassel route is to have Bates take an OC job in the NFL.

Also, Cassell was picked in a draft that selected 14 QB's--and he was the 13th of 14 with Harvard's starting QB being the only one selected after him. So, using just this draft alone, playing QB at Harvard would yield similar result to the SC plank. Utah, Cal, and Auburn produced 1st round QB picks. If Cassel had played for Akron he could have been drafted 4 rounds higher or UConn that would have been two rounds higher. Two Pac 10 starters were picked ahead of Cassel, so starting in the same league for another team would have been better in the 2005 draft.

Do you know how many SC QBs rode the pine over the past 10-15 years?

As for his success with the Pats, it's very difficult to credit all of that to SC. And, even if you did, how could you posssibly credit Pete Carrol with more involvment that that of Lane Kiffin. That's really the irony of this whole debate, whatever credit you give to SC for QBs, one must consider who coached those QBs. It was not a defensive-minded head coach.
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Probably the same number of Tennessee QBs who rode the pine during the same time.

Look, Kiffin has a good counter to Carroll's NFL argument in that the people most responsible for putting all those USC QBs in the NFL (Chow/Sarkisian) are no longer there and the people at UT who failed to put any QBs in the NFL are no longer here.

Of course Carroll can counter that by having Palmer/Leinart/Cassel/Sanchez send him copies of their signing bonus checks then asking Scroggins if he wants one with his name on it.
 
#9,891
#9,891
spudvol said:
Probably the same number of Tennessee QBs who rode the pine during the same time.

Look, Kiffin has a good counter to Carroll's NFL argument in that the people most responsible for putting all those USC QBs in the NFL (Chow/Sarkisian/Kiffin) are no longer there and the people at UT who failed to put any QBs in the NFL are no longer here.

Of course Carroll can counter that by having Palmer/Leinart/Cassel/Sanchez send him copies of their signing bonus checks then asking Scroggins if he wants one with his name on it.
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fyp..

Also, to me, the argument isn't even about the programs, it's about how best to get a 'look' from the League. The choices are playing somewhere versus riding the plank at SC.

I can't see how anyone would argue that it's better to ride the plank at SC than it would be to start at UT. The player is what makes the most difference, but the League is not keen on giving a QB their first start at that level. It's just a high risk, 7th round or free agent type of an investment. It does happen, but the "odds" are against that route versus the starting QB for another team option, especially a team who plays against the best defensive league in college football.

Still... this is all moot. He's going to USC.
 
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#9,894
#9,894
Scroggins should be more interested in the progress made for each highly recruited QB attending USC or UT than the total number of QBs that were drafted into the NFL. I'm sure USC has signed many more talented QB prospects than UT in the past few years. What would UT have done with similar talent? And then the follow-up question for Scroggins...which school will provide him the best avenue to the NFL. If he goes to UT, he will likely start 3-4 years and be a high draft pick. At USC, he'll have to beat out Barkley and then look over his shoulder every year for the next hotshot QB. I think UT is a better option.
 
#9,895
#9,895
is it safe to say that when we get CONFIRMATION (not somebody saying it was on his myspace) that his announcement has been pushed back, it will be posted on here so we know when its coming?
 
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