Its not that hard. You have to realize that things change, coaches leave, players commit, decommit, and other things. You hear rumors and other things but what you believe of them is pure question. You have to remember with recruits you are dealing with 17 and 18 year old kids who change their minds daily. The best thing to worry about is on NSD when you have a bunch of recruits. That is who will be there, before that you cannot count anyone. If they are commited then it is a good thing, if they decomit, then they do. The sky is not falling.
Some of the recruits you get on NSD will be good and some will be terrible. Look at Chris Donald. If he had decommited a few years ago they sky would have fell. Now would you feel the same? Look at most of the 07 class, the same for them. Just worry about the here and now. If a player pans out then they do, enjoy it while you can. The perfect example is Cincinnati. They did not get the high caliber recruits, yet they were a FG away from playing for the NC. UT had the recruits and finished 7-5. UK even has had just 3 star classes and had the same record at UT this year.