'15 NM QB Zach Gentry

From a thread on VQ about the new QB UT offered. Someone asked if Texas leads for Gentry...



-Fortenberry

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I would agree with you if these outliers were not happening every year. Every year, all around the country there are players who play well beyond their star ranking. Elite school offers are a best guess on whether or not a recruit has big time potential. It is not stated fact. If that were the case then every 4* and 5* star guys would turn out to be deserving of their ranking. That is not the case.

An offer list only means that a player has impressed the coaches enough to see possible future potential. That alone however does not mean that player is going to be successful. It also does not mean that a player who has little to know offers cannot become superstars. I really don't see how this is confusing. Sorry but like I said offer lists do not make the player. Hard work, talent and coaching does.

Of course there are outliers every year, the vast majority of prospects are 2 and 3 star players, it's not an exact science.

Star rankings are not an indicator of "gauranteed" success, they are an indicator of "probable" success (i.e., a 5 Star is more "likely" to have success than a 3 Star)

Doesn't mean all 5 Star's excel. Doesn't mean all 3 Star's bust. You will have 5 Stars that bust (e.g., Chris Donald), you will have 3 Stars that excel (e.g., Cam Sutton).

The point is that the "hit" rate on 2 & 3 Stars is considerably lower than the hit rate on 4 & 5 Stars.

You say that - "Every year, all around the country there are players who play well beyond their star ranking". That's right, now divide that into the total number of 2 & 3 Stars from that class. The conversion rate is incredibly low.
 
Of course there are outliers every year, the vast majority of prospects are 2 and 3 star players, it's not an exact science.

Star rankings are not an indicator of "gauranteed" success, they are an indicator of "probable" success (i.e., a 5 Star is more "likely" to have success than a 3 Star)

Doesn't mean all 5 Star's excel. Doesn't mean all 3 Star's bust. You will have 5 Stars that bust (e.g., Chris Donald), you will have 3 Stars that excel (e.g., Cam Sutton).

The point is that the "hit" rate on 2 & 3 Stars is considerably lower than the hit rate on 4 & 5 Stars.

You say that - "Every year, all around the country there are players who play well beyond their star ranking". That's right, now divide that into the total number of 2 & 3 Stars from that class. The conversion rate is incredibly low.

Good post
 
Indiana V. New Mexico. Which is least valuable? New Mexico gave us the setting for Breaking Bad, one of the best shows of all time, so see ya Indiana!

Hold on... Let me get my stuff packed. :hi:
 
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This class is shaping up to be great. We are in great position for elite talent at positions of need. If we land Gentry I really feel like the dominoes will start to fall in our favor. I have been worried about QB recruitment for years
 
Indiana V. New Mexico. Which is least valuable? New Mexico gave us the setting for Breaking Bad, one of the best shows of all time, so see ya Indiana!

Parks and Rec, though. And Ron Swanson. And Glicht...
 

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