VolFreakJosh
“Don’t you put that evil on me Ricky Bobby!”
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- Feb 2, 2013
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I would agree with you if these outliers were not happening every year. Every year, all around the country there are players who play well beyond their star ranking. Elite school offers are a best guess on whether or not a recruit has big time potential. It is not stated fact. If that were the case then every 4* and 5* star guys would turn out to be deserving of their ranking. That is not the case.
An offer list only means that a player has impressed the coaches enough to see possible future potential. That alone however does not mean that player is going to be successful. It also does not mean that a player who has little to know offers cannot become superstars. I really don't see how this is confusing. Sorry but like I said offer lists do not make the player. Hard work, talent and coaching does.
Of course there are outliers every year, the vast majority of prospects are 2 and 3 star players, it's not an exact science.
Star rankings are not an indicator of "gauranteed" success, they are an indicator of "probable" success (i.e., a 5 Star is more "likely" to have success than a 3 Star)
Doesn't mean all 5 Star's excel. Doesn't mean all 3 Star's bust. You will have 5 Stars that bust (e.g., Chris Donald), you will have 3 Stars that excel (e.g., Cam Sutton).
The point is that the "hit" rate on 2 & 3 Stars is considerably lower than the hit rate on 4 & 5 Stars.
You say that - "Every year, all around the country there are players who play well beyond their star ranking". That's right, now divide that into the total number of 2 & 3 Stars from that class. The conversion rate is incredibly low.