2020 Presidential Race

[GAVol]

A little Soul Glo got him right again

Love that movie.

 

[tvolsfan]

There will no doubt be some of that going on, but 35% is crazy low and 55% was an absolute pipe dream.

Yeah, that poll isn't taking into account polarization. His floor is 43, and his ceiling is about 50.

 

[GAVol]

Yeah, that poll isn't taking into account polarization. His floor is 43, and his ceiling is about 50.

I think that's pretty much true of whoever runs as an R or a D right now. Probably haven't been many candidates get above 52ish% in the last 40 years. Probably Reagan the second time around. Maybe Obama?

 

[lawgator1]

Yeah, that poll isn't taking into account polarization. His floor is 43, and his ceiling is about 50.

I think his floor might be somewhat below that, particularly if there is a second wave of the virus and a lot of legitimate "I told you so's." It is hard to imagine him hitting anything close to 50 %, though. Even with economic bounceback there are still going to be a lot of aftershocks, plus there was some erosion of his support already occurring amongst women, in particular.

Will be determined by turnout in the battleground states, of course. And I think this is why Trump is acting the way he is in going after Obama and the various spun up controversies. He has his base and he needs them to turn out. Needs them motivated and so he's going after their favorite targets -- foreigners, Obama, and the media. That's his only shot, because if the 43 % base he has right now waffles on going to the polls, he is cooked.

 

[Rifleman]

I think his floor might be somewhat below that, particularly if there is a second wave of the virus and a lot of legitimate "I told you so's." It is hard to imagine him hitting anything close to 50 %, though. Even with economic bounceback there are still going to be a lot of aftershocks, plus there was some erosion of his support already occurring amongst women, in particular.

Will be determined by turnout in the battleground states, of course. And I think this is why Trump is acting the way he is in going after Obama and the various spun up controversies. He has his base and he needs them to turn out. Needs them motivated and so he's going after their favorite targets -- foreigners, Obama, and the media. That's his only shot, because if the 43 % base he has right now waffles on going to the polls, he is cooked.

Important to understand that Trump's EC win scenarios will start around the 46% of popular vote he got last time, even assuming there are not significant third party votes, even lower if there are of course.

Romney got 47.1 percent and got shellacked. Trump would win with that more often than not.

Finally, if he goes above Bush's 47.9 from 2000 he is going to win 9 times out of 10.

This is because we are at an inflection point in the EC where the GOP has an advantage, but that will flip harshly the other way in coming cycles.

46-47 = very close
47-48 = slight favorite
48 and above = Trump win

I don't think most talking heads other than the data folks really understand this dynamic.

 

[Orangeburst]

Kinda looks like a young Michael Strahan

Did you see it tore front tooth (teeth) out. Got the Abrams corn cob effect.

 

[Tennesseefan2019]

 

[zeppelin128]

There is a difference between being demented and having dementia. I’m beginning to think one of those applies to you Zep.

Maybe I'm demented. But I was being a smart ass, view my prior post to LG.
Good lord, next time I'll be sure to mark my posts. I assumed people could pick up on sarcastic ******** posting. Guess not.

 

[lawgator1]

I find Trump's comments today about mail in ballots fascinating. He says they are prone to fraud. He did it because he had to vote in Florida. He justifies that as "having a reason."

If my elderly parents want to mail in a ballot rather than risk the virus, why isn't that a reason? If appearing at a polling place is a hardship for an eunemployed person, why isn't that a reason?

 

[RavinDave]

Maybe I'm demented. But I was being a smart ass, view my prior post to LG.
Good lord, next time I'll be sure to mark my posts. I assumed people could pick up on sarcastic ******** posting. Guess not.

I was expecting you could pick up on my joke too...

 

[hog88]

I find Trump's comments today about mail in ballots fascinating. He says they are prone to fraud. He did it because he had to vote in Florida. He justifies that as "having a reason."

If my elderly parents want to mail in a ballot rather than risk the virus, why isn't that a reason? If appearing at a polling place is a hardship for an eunemployed person, why isn't that a reason?

Why is it so hard for you people to understand the difference between the absentee ballot system and what OR does with the vote by mail?

But, absentee ballots should only be for the military and maybe a couple other situations. Not because it's hard for you to get to a polling place.

 

[tnutater]

Always remember
It is not who votes that determines the winner
those who count the votes determine the winner

 

[headhunter15]

Well, we know how the models and polls had the 2016 election and the virus on point...

 

[Ten_Titans]

Anyone who looks like this should probably sit out any discussion that involves talking about anyone else's looks

I'm disappointed Trump hasn't roasted the hell out of her yet.

Ole Roman statue, face hasn't moved in 50 years lookin ass.

 

[hjeagle1vol]

I find Trump's comments today about mail in ballots fascinating. He says they are prone to fraud. He did it because he had to vote in Florida. He justifies that as "having a reason."

If my elderly parents want to mail in a ballot rather than risk the virus, why isn't that a reason? If appearing at a polling place is a hardship for an eunemployed person, why isn't that a reason?

So your folks are on complete shut-in lockdown until November? No groceries, doctor visits, anything outside in an environment even a socially distance controlled outing? Wow hate that for them.

 

[VolnJC]

Love that movie.

They are filming another one...Wesley Snipes is in it

 

[VolnJC]

 

[GAVol]

They are filming another one...Wesley Snipes is in it

I guess we can rest assured that the sequel won’t be called “Paying Taxes to America”.

 

[BreatheUT]

Why is it so hard for you people to understand the difference between the absentee ballot system and what OR does with the vote by mail?

But, absentee ballots should only be for the military and maybe a couple other situations. Not because it's hard for you to get to a polling place.

Fair elections are compromised when you can't see the person that is voting. This whole "voter suppression" is more liberal malarkey BS they've come up with as they keep coming up with new buzz words for "racist". Political correctness is now like pop culture. It's the new propaganda motto.

 

[hjeagle1vol]

Well, we know how the models and polls had the 2016 election and the virus on point...

Just a little preview for what's coming...

 

[DC_Vol]

Just a little preview for what's coming...

I’ve never spent any time in Staunton except to stop at the Sheetz there (usually on the way to Knoxville) but given it’s location I’m surprised that Republican wins there are a huge deal. What am I missing?

 

[0nelilreb]

I’ve never spent any time in Staunton except to stop at the Sheetz there (usually on the way to Knoxville) but given it’s location I’m surprised that Republican wins there are a huge deal. What am I missing?

How else would the populous from the birth place of Woodrow Wilson vote , but progressive liberal ?

Edit : yes I googled that lol

 

[Electric Orange]

Ukraine judge orders Joe Biden be listed as alleged perpetrator of crime in prosecutor’s firing

So Biden is not only demented and a rapist, but he is also under investigation for corruption after a Ukrainian judge specifically orders him to be named in the investigation?

So if Biden is undoubtedly
(A) demented
(B) guilty of rape
(C) specifically named in corruption case

Guilty of A, B, and C

Would you still vote for Biden over Trump?

 

[BreatheUT]

 

[MG1968]

Ukraine judge orders Joe Biden be listed as alleged perpetrator of crime in prosecutor’s firing

So Biden is not only demented and a rapist, but he is also under investigation for corruption after a Ukrainian judge specifically orders him to be named in the investigation?

So if Biden is undoubtedly
(A) demented
(B) guilty of rape
(C) specifically named in corruption case

Guilty of A, B, and C

Would you still vote for Biden over Trump?

Democrats say yes.

There could be video of Biden wearing a harp seal fur coat, torturing a puppy while listening to Nickleback and the left will vote for him because “orange man bad”.