2023 NCAA Post Season (HOSTING) Discussion Thread - Merged

Will the Vols make it to NCAA Tournament in 2023

  • Total voters
    122
  • Poll closed .
#201
#201
Ryno14 said:
I’m not afraid to say I voted no. Watching this team every game during that bad stretch just got so frustrating - especially when a lot of it was just fundamentals. Pretty sure I got home from the ballpark after the Tech loss and voted no. Glad we finally put it all together and glad I’ve gotten to witness a lot of it in person (that Saturday Vandy game will be a tough one to forget).
Let’s get another series W this weekend! GBO
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Until we show we can win on the road, I have to vote no as well.
 
#212
#212
preacherman20 said:
But Super would be Stanford. Not good. Got 2 weeks to fix that.
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Stanford has a habit of losing in regionals
So that would be good.
UIt would be harder to be in that very hostile Greenville atmosphere.

Nevermind, I see Coastal not East Carolina.
That would be hostile too, but at least there's a Buc-ees nearby
 
#213
#213
txbo said:
You make me laugh. Thank you.
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Well we did grab our second road win of the season vs UGA so I guess that's progress? Will it be enough to get in as a host? Not so sure. Better make hay vs UK tho.
 
#214
#214
TennVols12 said:
Wait….you vote “no” to not making the tournament at all? You serious, Clark?
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OP was about hosting. Our road performance is awful so I'm not seeing us get enough wins to host. It's math so take my comments with a grain of salt because I suck at math.
 
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#217
#217
preacherman20 said:
Win last 7 we host. 6 maybe. 5 real iffy. 4 or less no.
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If we don't host, we morph into Road Warriors like those guys in Mad Max Beyond the Thunderdome and win more away games than home games for the rest of the season, which we probably should do anyway because it solves a lot of problems.
 
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#219
#219
This season is like no other.
there's more "mid majors" than normal in the running as host, and I actually consider Kentucky almost like a mid-major based on geography and tradition.
There's going to be some really strong, traditional programs going into some small facilities. Some more hostile than others.
ECU, West Va, Coastal would be a hornet's nest
Connecticut, and Boston College not so much


Then there are schools that have had long - or recent problems as hosts that may be hosting. Stanford, ECU, Florida

i know the committee likes to match up geographically but with so many northern schools possibly getting a bid. It will be difficult to protech, BC, Uconn, WVU from SEC invaders.

Then there's some schools that I do not think will be in position to host when bids are announced.

Connecticut as a projected 16 has no margin for error. The close with a bad Butler team and at ok Creighton. Not great RPI's so if they slip up in a series, it may be difficult to get back to 16. The Big East Tourney is in Mason, OH (Xavier) who is second in league right now.

Oklahoma State is projected 15 seed by D1 but is not even ranked in their "poll". The Big12 is down this year. They host KSU and then at Bedlam. KSU is just behind OSU in standings. OSU has no room for error either. They will err.

Boston College is projected at 14. They may have peaked too early as they've lost 3 of last 4 ACC series. Amazing for a New England school. But they do have a soft closing schedule. Villanova, Maine and Notre Dame- all at home The ACC tourney is in Durham and Duke is red hot right now. The Eagles need to likely make semis to keep host bid. But the committee sometimes does not hold conference tourneys against team.

I don's see that BC and Uconn will both host. That's a LOT of money left on the table by the NCAA. I don't think either team will have the resume. BC is currently 3rd in the Atlantic division and technically 6th overall in ACC. I just don't see the 6th place team hosting . They are actually tied with Notre Dame. They are 1-1 against UConn

Miami is at 13, Their recent record has improved, but their schedule is softer. Their road record is not great- Better than UT- but they are 6-12. They host Duke in the final weekend atter going to Pitt. Duke is only marginally better (7-13) on the road

Coastal Carolina as 12 seed. They visit South Alabama, and host Marshall after a big RPI midweek game vs NC next week. They're not losing either series and will likely beat UNC. The Chants are 17-7 in Fun Belt. Tied with Southern Miss. It may be hard for Coastal to maintain that #13 RPI and their ranking. But I think they will likely keep their bid.

Speaking of Fun Belt, Southern Miss is #22 RPI and has won 10 straight games. after losing first 2 games at Coastal Carolina in late April. Those games were 7-15, 7-20, and 15-7. Southern Miss is a dark horse for bid with a strong finishing kick.

Clemson is at 11. I'll be honest. I abhor Clemson baseball. It's deep and I'm not entirely explainable. Their road record is good at 10-5. Their non-conference is mediocre 18-7 as they struggled mightily early on on. Swept by UCF, 1-2 SC,. 0-1 by USC Upstate. 0-1 vs UGA,. But they've been rolling in ACC since being swept at home by Wake. They6've lost 3 ACC games since then and won every series. They swept Louisville last weekend and beat Coastal Tonight in Conway 13-6. They visit VaTech and host UNC in finale as well as a "do-over" against SC-Upstate on Tuesday. I still don't have much faith in them, but they also have to go to Durham as well. The beat Duke twice in opening ACC weekend in Clemson in 3 close games. I think CU is just going to disappoint their fans again. But they will likely do it at home.

South Carolina is the D1 10 seed . Their fans are hoping the recent swoon is just a bad spell and they will get it back together. They better. If they get swept at injury-riddled Arkansas, then they will likely need to sweep Tennessee to keep their bid. Win both series and they may be national seeds again. HOWEVER, they lost Tuesday to North Florida (RPI # 184) at home 8-5. And have lost 6 of last 8 games. They lost last two series to less talented teams (AU, UK)

I'm listing Florida at #9 because they close with Vanderbilt and at Kentucky. Lose both those series and they're likely going on the road. However, I don't think Vanderbilt can keep up with Florida offensively.

Looking at the teams that are on outside looking in. These are the 6 teams that still have a shot at top-16

Virginia - #10 RPI . Louisville @ Ga Tech. Lost 3 straight series (Pitt, @ND, Duke) . Still have high RPI. Likely have to go 4-2 to stay in running. They would likely take Clemson's bid.
Campbell - #19 RPI . Have won 6 straight tough midweek games against NC and Elon. Host Gardner-Webb and visit SC-Upstate. (no help RPI wise) HUGE game at ECU next Tuesday. Would committee take both CCU and Camels?
East Carolina - #23 RPI is likely too high as they play Memphis and visit South Fla. which will negatively impact. . They play Tuesday against Campbell. They will need to finish 7-0 but this is doable.
Dallas Baptist- #24 RPI and will improve if they can win series @UTSA This weekend. They likely need to close 6-0 (maybe 5-1) and win CUSA tourney in Houston.
Tennessee- #25 RPI. Ugly road record 2-11. .500 in SEC. RPI will get much higher with UK and SC. 5-1 likely gets a bid. 4-2 "could" if Vols win both series and starting pitching looks better.
Oregon- #27 RPI. Lost series @ SoCal and were crushed in final game. Lost 4 of last 5. Not pitching well right now. Close with weak UW and at Utah. Beat Stanford but lost to OSU and also UCLA at home
Oregon State - #29 RPI and ranked 15. @ UCLA and close - oddly with Western Carolina. I don't think the committee can justify 2 PAC teams hosting. They were swept at Stanford in March. Did win at Oregon

The Vols can only help themselves by putting Kentucky on the hosting "bubble". Sweep Kentucky and that adds another team fighting for a hosting spot. I hope the Vols remember all the crap in Lexington last year and how it felt to lost that series. But of course, most of the guys - fielders anyway, are gone.
The Vols lost that series entirely due to offense. The pitching did pretty well considering the weather conditions. There was zero timely hits for most of that weekend. If the rule were in place in 2022, Tennessee should have run rulled Kentucky who were easily the worst SEC team they played all season- talent wise.

CRUSH Kentucky and put pressure on South Carolina who will hopefully be exiting Fayetteville with a series loss. Tennessee would surely be well in top 16 RPI wise.
 
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#220
#220
fryeguy93 said:
This season is like no other.
there's more "mid majors" than normal in the running as host, and I actually consider Kentucky almost like a mid-major based on geography and tradition.
There's going to be some really strong, traditional programs going into some small facilities. Some more hostile than others.
ECU, West Va, Coastal would be a hornet's nest
Connecticut, and Boston College not so much


Then there are schools that have had long - or recent problems as hosts that may be hosting. Stanford, ECU, Florida

i know the committee likes to match up geographically but with so many northern schools possibly getting a bid. It will be difficult to protech, BC, Uconn, WVU from SEC invaders.

Then there's some schools that I do not think will be in position to host when bids are announced.

Connecticut as a projected 16 has no margin for error. The close with a bad Butler team and at a ok Creighton. ot great RPI's so if they slip up in a series, it may be difficult to get back to 16. The Big East Tourney is in Mason, OH (Xavier) who is send in league right now.

Oklahoma State is projected 15 seed by D1 but is not even ranked in their "poll". The Big12 is down this year. The host KSU and then at Bedlam. KSU is just behind OSU in standings. OSU has not room for error either. They will err.

Boston College is projected at 14. they may have peaked too early as they've lost 3 of last 4 ACC series. Amazing for a New England school. Bith they do have a soft closing schedule. Villanova, Maine and Notre Dame- all at home The ACC tourney is in Durham and Duke is red hot right now. the Eagles need to likely make semis to keep host bid. But the committee sometimes does not hold conference tourneys against team.

I don's see that BC and Uconn will both host. That's a LOT of money left on the table by the NCAA. I don't think either team will have the resume. BC is currently 3rd in the Atlantic division and technically 6th overall in ACC. I just don't see the 6th place team hosting . They are actually tied with Notre Dame. They are 1-1 against UConn

Miami is at 13, Their recent record has been far better but their schedule actually got easier. Their road record is not great- Better than UT- but they are 6-12. They host Duke in the final weekend atter going to Pitt. Dke is only marginally better (7-13) on the road

Coastal Carolina is 12. They go to South Alabama, and host Marshall after a midweek game vs NC next week. They're not losing either series and will likely beat UNC. The Chants are 17-7 in Fun Belt. Tied with Southern Miss

by the way, Southern Miss is #22 RPI and has won 10 straight games. after losing first 2 games at Coastal Carolina in late April. Those games were 7-15, 7-20, and 15-7

It may be hard for Coastal to maintain that #13 RPI and their ranking. But I think they will likely keep their bid.

Clemson is 11. I'll be honest. I abhor Clemson baseball. It's deep and I'm not sure explainable. Their road record is good at 10-5. Their non-conference is mediocre 18-7 as they struggled mightily early on on. Swept by UCF, 1-2 SC,. 0-1 by USC Upstate. 0-1 vs UGA,. But they've been rolling in ACC since being swept at home by Wake. They6've lost 3 ACC games since then and won every series. They swept Louisville last weekend and beat Coastal Tonight in Conway 13-6. They closet at VaTech and hosting UNC and have another shot vs USC Upstate on Tuesday. I still don't have much faith in them but they also have to go to Durham as well. The beat Duke twice in opening ACCC weekend in Clemson in 3 close games. I think CU is jsut going to disappoint their fans again. But they will likely do it at home.

South Carolina is 10. Their fans are hoping the recent swoon is just a bad spell and they will get it back together. They better. If they get swept at Arkansas and their injured teams then they will likely need to sweep Tennessee to keep their bid. Win both series and they may be nation seeds again. HOWEVER, they lost Tuesday to North Florida (RPI # 184) at home 8-5. And have lost 6 of last 8 games. They lost last2 series to teams that have less talent.

I'm listing Florida at #9 because they closed with Vanderbilt and at Kentucky. Somehow lost both those series and they're likely going on the road. However, I don't think Vanderbilt can keep up with Florida offensively.


Looking at the teams that are on outside looking in. These are the 6 teams that still have a shot at top-16

Virginia - Vs Louisville @ Ga Tech. Lost 3 straight series (Pitt, @ND, Duke) . Still have high RPI (10) Likely have to go 4-2 to stay in running
Campbell - #19 RPI . Have won 6 straight tough midweek games against NC and Elon. Close wihi Gardner-Webb and @SC Upstate. (no help) HUGE game at ECU on Tuesday
East Carolina - #23 RPI is likely too high as they play Memphis and @ South Fla. will not help. They play Tues against Campbell. They will need to 7-0
Tennessee- #25 RPI. Terrible road record 2-11. .500 in SEC. Strong with two huge RPI foes. 5-1 likely gets a bid. 4-2 "could" if they win both series and starting pitching looks good.
Dallas Baptist- #24 RPI and will improve if they can win series @UTSA This weekend. They likely need to close 6-0 (maybe 5-1) and win CUSA tourney in Houston.
Oregon- #27 RPI. Lost series @ USC and were crushed in final game. lost 4 of last 5. Not pitching well right now. Close with weak UW and at Utah. Beat Stanford but lost to OSU and UCLA at home
Oregon State - #29 RPI and ranked 15. @ UCLA and close - oddly with Western Carolina. I don't think the committee can justify 2 PAC teams hosting. They were swept at Stanford in March. Did win @ Oregon


The Vols can only help themselves by putting Kentucky on the hosting "bubble". Sweep Kentucky and that adds another team fighting for a hosting spot. I hope the Vols remember all the crap in Lexington last year and how it felt to lost that series. But of course, most of the guys - fielders anyway, are gone.
The Vols lost that series entirely due to offense. The pitching did pretty well considering the weather conditions. There was zero timely hits for most of that weekend. If the rule were in place in 2022, Tennessee should have run rulled Kentucky who were easily the worst SEC team they played all season- talent wise.

CRUSH Kentucky and put pressure on South Carolina who will hopefully be exiting Fayetteville with a series loss. Tennessee would surely be well in top 16 RPI wise.
Click to expand...
This is a GREAT breakdown. Thank you Frye!!
 
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#221
#221
fryeguy93 said:
This season is like no other.
there's more "mid majors" than normal in the running as host, and I actually consider Kentucky almost like a mid-major based on geography and tradition.
There's going to be some really strong, traditional programs going into some small facilities. Some more hostile than others.
ECU, West Va, Coastal would be a hornet's nest
Connecticut, and Boston College not so much


Then there are schools that have had long - or recent problems as hosts that may be hosting. Stanford, ECU, Florida

i know the committee likes to match up geographically but with so many northern schools possibly getting a bid. It will be difficult to protech, BC, Uconn, WVU from SEC invaders.

Then there's some schools that I do not think will be in position to host when bids are announced.

Connecticut as a projected 16 has no margin for error. The close with a bad Butler team and at a ok Creighton. ot great RPI's so if they slip up in a series, it may be difficult to get back to 16. The Big East Tourney is in Mason, OH (Xavier) who is send in league right now.

Oklahoma State is projected 15 seed by D1 but is not even ranked in their "poll". The Big12 is down this year. The host KSU and then at Bedlam. KSU is just behind OSU in standings. OSU has not room for error either. They will err.

Boston College is projected at 14. they may have peaked too early as they've lost 3 of last 4 ACC series. Amazing for a New England school. Bith they do have a soft closing schedule. Villanova, Maine and Notre Dame- all at home The ACC tourney is in Durham and Duke is red hot right now. the Eagles need to likely make semis to keep host bid. But the committee sometimes does not hold conference tourneys against team.

I don's see that BC and Uconn will both host. That's a LOT of money left on the table by the NCAA. I don't think either team will have the resume. BC is currently 3rd in the Atlantic division and technically 6th overall in ACC. I just don't see the 6th place team hosting . They are actually tied with Notre Dame. They are 1-1 against UConn

Miami is at 13, Their recent record has been far better but their schedule actually got easier. Their road record is not great- Better than UT- but they are 6-12. They host Duke in the final weekend atter going to Pitt. Dke is only marginally better (7-13) on the road

Coastal Carolina is 12. They go to South Alabama, and host Marshall after a midweek game vs NC next week. They're not losing either series and will likely beat UNC. The Chants are 17-7 in Fun Belt. Tied with Southern Miss

by the way, Southern Miss is #22 RPI and has won 10 straight games. after losing first 2 games at Coastal Carolina in late April. Those games were 7-15, 7-20, and 15-7

It may be hard for Coastal to maintain that #13 RPI and their ranking. But I think they will likely keep their bid.

Clemson is 11. I'll be honest. I abhor Clemson baseball. It's deep and I'm not sure explainable. Their road record is good at 10-5. Their non-conference is mediocre 18-7 as they struggled mightily early on on. Swept by UCF, 1-2 SC,. 0-1 by USC Upstate. 0-1 vs UGA,. But they've been rolling in ACC since being swept at home by Wake. They6've lost 3 ACC games since then and won every series. They swept Louisville last weekend and beat Coastal Tonight in Conway 13-6. They closet at VaTech and hosting UNC and have another shot vs USC Upstate on Tuesday. I still don't have much faith in them but they also have to go to Durham as well. The beat Duke twice in opening ACCC weekend in Clemson in 3 close games. I think CU is jsut going to disappoint their fans again. But they will likely do it at home.

South Carolina is 10. Their fans are hoping the recent swoon is just a bad spell and they will get it back together. They better. If they get swept at Arkansas and their injured teams then they will likely need to sweep Tennessee to keep their bid. Win both series and they may be nation seeds again. HOWEVER, they lost Tuesday to North Florida (RPI # 184) at home 8-5. And have lost 6 of last 8 games. They lost last2 series to teams that have less talent.

I'm listing Florida at #9 because they closed with Vanderbilt and at Kentucky. Somehow lost both those series and they're likely going on the road. However, I don't think Vanderbilt can keep up with Florida offensively.


Looking at the teams that are on outside looking in. These are the 6 teams that still have a shot at top-16

Virginia - Vs Louisville @ Ga Tech. Lost 3 straight series (Pitt, @ND, Duke) . Still have high RPI (10) Likely have to go 4-2 to stay in running
Campbell - #19 RPI . Have won 6 straight tough midweek games against NC and Elon. Close wihi Gardner-Webb and @SC Upstate. (no help) HUGE game at ECU on Tuesday
East Carolina - #23 RPI is likely too high as they play Memphis and @ South Fla. will not help. They play Tues against Campbell. They will need to 7-0
Tennessee- #25 RPI. Terrible road record 2-11. .500 in SEC. Strong with two huge RPI foes. 5-1 likely gets a bid. 4-2 "could" if they win both series and starting pitching looks good.
Dallas Baptist- #24 RPI and will improve if they can win series @UTSA This weekend. They likely need to close 6-0 (maybe 5-1) and win CUSA tourney in Houston.
Oregon- #27 RPI. Lost series @ USC and were crushed in final game. lost 4 of last 5. Not pitching well right now. Close with weak UW and at Utah. Beat Stanford but lost to OSU and UCLA at home
Oregon State - #29 RPI and ranked 15. @ UCLA and close - oddly with Western Carolina. I don't think the committee can justify 2 PAC teams hosting. They were swept at Stanford in March. Did win @ Oregon


The Vols can only help themselves by putting Kentucky on the hosting "bubble". Sweep Kentucky and that adds another team fighting for a hosting spot. I hope the Vols remember all the crap in Lexington last year and how it felt to lost that series. But of course, most of the guys - fielders anyway, are gone.
The Vols lost that series entirely due to offense. The pitching did pretty well considering the weather conditions. There was zero timely hits for most of that weekend. If the rule were in place in 2022, Tennessee should have run rulled Kentucky who were easily the worst SEC team they played all season- talent wise.

CRUSH Kentucky and put pressure on South Carolina who will hopefully be exiting Fayetteville with a series loss. Tennessee would surely be well in top 16 RPI wise.
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Nicely done. Thank you for the thorough analysis.
 
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