I’m wearing out on being a guy with information. I kind of prefer being the quippy grump who can’t suffer idiots. I stumbled into the “insider” nonsense by having a friend who handles transactions for NIL and other contracts. I feel an obligation to share things, if they’re useful and potentially timely. That said, I don’t love spending time defending why the thing I shared can’t be true, is no longer true, or is made up. There are about 10-20 posters here who really love ball, and our team, and are knowledgeable about the sport and how it’s evolving. I end up learning a lot, and really enjoy the back and forth. I actually enjoy those I disagree with, and even the cranks like Cav or portal jihadis like Trippie. That said, the flat-earthers and heavy thinkers in this forum can really make sharing information exhausting. Poor me, I know. Just shut up, SF and there will be no witch trial. Point taken. This week, as some things took shape with Lanier, and I heard some of the table scrap information, I just sat on it, for the first time. I just didn’t have the stamina to handle the torch and pitchfork types that seem to only appear to celebrate failure, cheer on firings, and track planes. Well, It’s Saturday and I’m not dead or hungover so I’ll share some thoughts. I realize writing this many words with no pictures has already made enemies. Maybe I’ve weeded out some trolls from verbosity alone. Probably not.
First— Usually the earliest leaks come from agents, managers and handlers, not from staff or NIL. The sources of the best information, like Trilly etc. all have agent connections. Agents share information as a tactic to manipulate outcomes. Journalists and others, check that data with sources in NIL and staff. They have their own agendas and often correct the record (or intentionally don’t) to help their agendas. Staffs lie very rarely. It backfires. Agents lie sometimes. Handlers lie more. They are playing a short game, and they’re happy to cause trouble. They get dumped when kids turn pro. They get one shot at some new wheels. They take it.
All this leads to one thing— The market is higher this year, but the handlers are lying to make it seem even higher. Very few of the numbers we’ve heard are real, according to those I talk to.
Lanier has a serious group of professionals around him, his family, and a couple of non-professional friends. His exploration of the pros has been thoughtful and slow, and unfolded exactly as everyone expected it would. He made every relationship he could, explored every path, and didn’t string anyone on our side along. He communicated through all of it. He also, hung a do not disturb on his door when he entered the portal like he said he would. One of his (less professional) handlers/friends has been talking to NIL groups and talked to a few teams. This ended up with Arky, UK, and BYU throwing money out to disrupt things. The numbers were big enough that it couldn’t be ignored. It was our staff’s perception that Lanier would leave the draft process and he’d be ours after having to adjust numbers up a bit due to the changes in the market. Unfortunately those changes became hysterical since he is one of the last big names among a few who might not drop from the draft. Wooga and Robinson are targets, but Lanier is getting more focus. It’s also important to understand that some of the numbers being tossed around aren’t real, even though they came from NIL reps. It’s become a tactic to toss out an absurd number to get someone to the table, and then move the goalposts in the documents.
Right now, the yahoos who stirred the deal interest up, are moving back to the kids’ table, and the actual agents who have been working the NBA will look at the actual offers and judge them with Lanier. I believe this is good for us, as they’ll be judging more than the top line. They’ll be judging all the variables that improve Lanier’s chances at a pro career.
It’s worth noting that Barnes hasn’t enjoyed how this has gone down, and others have had to keep it afloat. There are too many involved and he doesn’t usually have patience for that. On the positive side, Lanier’s top influencer is his mom. Lanier is a good kid too. Both of them like and trust Barnes. They’ve told him we’ll get the last meeting, and the last chance to offer. One monkey wrench— If the NIL numbers are way out of line, we won’t counter. We may not even take the visit. Sorry to those who want us to do “anything”. Barnes and staff have values and strategic ideas they won’t corrupt for one player. Like it or not, that’s real.
Finally, they do have options and communication channels beyond Lanier. Unlike UK, they aren’t playing everyone at once. They are holding up their end with Lanier and hope that has value when they sit down.
Sorry for the long post. I know this is more nuanced than some scorched-earthers would like. I probably won’t do a Q&A or a defense of this. I just wanted to share what I’ve heard.
I think we have a shot at the last sitdown, but it’s possible we’ll let that go.
