2025 Seed Watch Party Thread

#103
#103
Update before what’s obviously a massive Saturday for Tennessee…TeamRankings has us at 97.2% as a 3 seed or better so definitely feels like that’s our floor, 85.2% at a 2 seed or better so that’s moving closer to being our floor, they have our chances of a 1 seed currently at 27.8%. Barttorvik has our chances of a 1 seed much more favorable, currently at 44.8% which is good for 5th best according to them, narrowly behind Alabama who’s at 45.5%. It was already obvious, but worth repeating, this game likely shapes the ceiling for both teams moving forward, hard to see a scenario (not impossible) where the loser ends up with a 1 seed.


Updated seed list:

Auburn
Duke
Alabama
Houston
——————————
Florida
Tennessee
Michigan State
Wisconsin
——————————
Texas A&M
Kentucky
St. John’s
Iowa State
 
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#104
#104
Today’s games:
1:00pm: Auburn vs. Kentucky
2:15pm: Seton Hall vs. St. John’s
4:30pm: Cincinnati vs. Houston
7:00pm: Florida State vs. Duke
8:30pm: Texas A&M vs. Florida
9:00pm: Arizona vs. Iowa State


That A&M/Florida game probably depends on our outcome to decide who to root for…if we win then you want to be greedy and cheer for A&M to further get Florida out of our way for a 1, but if we were to lose an A&M win would creep them closer to us on that 2 line, probably not a huge deal but never know. Hopefully we get the W and are cheering for the Aggies tonight!
 
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#105
#105
bleedingTNorange said:
Today’s games:
1:00pm: Auburn vs. Kentucky
2:15pm: Seton Hall vs. St. John’s
4:30pm: Cincinnati vs. Houston
7:00pm: Florida State vs. Duke
8:30pm: Texas A&M vs. Florida
9:00pm: Arizona vs. Iowa State


That A&M/Florida game probably depends on our outcome to decide who to root for…if we win then you want to be greedy and cheer for A&M to further get Florida out of our way for a 1, but if we were to lose an A&M win would creep them closer to us on that 2 line, probably not a huge deal but never know. Hopefully we get the W and are cheering for the Aggies tonight!
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What’s the argument for rooting for Auburn over UK? Just that we can’t catch AU and it’s fun when UK loses? Is it an SEC tournament seeding thing?
 
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#106
#106
Col_Cathcart said:
What’s the argument for rooting for Auburn over UK? Just that we can’t catch AU and it’s fun when UK loses? Is it an SEC tournament seeding thing?
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Auburn losing does nothing for us. We can’t catch them on the seed-line or in the SEC race. Kentucky has a better chance of catching us than we do of catching Auburn on the seed-line. Both are a very small chance but this game is more about raising our floor because the ceiling won’t change even if Auburn loses. Teams behind us losing gives us cushion if we were to drop any games.
 
#107
#107
Col_Cathcart said:
What’s the argument for rooting for Auburn over UK? Just that we can’t catch AU and it’s fun when UK loses? Is it an SEC tournament seeding thing?
Click to expand...
Lunardi said Auburn can lose 3 in a row and is still a 1, so we aren’t catching them. Kentucky is a 3 seed currently so in theory 3 wins in a row for them and they could be pushing us on the 2 line.
 
#110
#110
bleedingTNorange said:
Lunardi said Auburn can lose 3 in a row and is still a 1, so we aren’t catching them. Kentucky is a 3 seed currently so in theory 3 wins in a row for them and they could be pushing us on the 2 line.
Click to expand...
Auburn result aside, how is that UK team a 3-seed? #14 in NET, #18 in KenPom. Now with 10 losses, that has to start to add up and count against them.
 
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#112
#112
cncchris33 said:
Auburn result aside, how is that UK team a 3-seed? #14 in NET, #18 in KenPom. Now with 10 losses, that has to start to add up and count against them.
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Unfortunately I think it has to do with all the teams around them keep losing as well. Whether it’s Purdue, Iowa State, Arizona, Texas A&M, etc. But yeah I would have thought they would be at least a 4 seed though.
 
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#115
#115
ABtheVolsfan92 said:
UVA busted into the top 100 giving us another Quad 2
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Houston has a chance for a QUAD 2 loss.
We need San Diego State to LOSE!
They one bad loss from making their NET fall to above 50.

Matter of fact they playing Wyoming now.
Need to turn that game on and root for whatever Wyoming calls their basketball team.
 
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#116
#116
Willy14 said:
Unfortunately I think it has to do with all the teams around them keep losing as well. Whether it’s Purdue, Iowa State, Arizona, Texas A&M, etc. But yeah I would have thought they would be at least a 4 seed though.
Click to expand...
Jaxson Robinson going to miss the rest of the season, too. At some point, that has to play a role, as well.
 
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#117
#117
Willy14 said:
Unfortunately I think it has to do with all the teams around them keep losing as well. Whether it’s Purdue, Iowa State, Arizona, Texas A&M, etc. But yeah I would have thought they would be at least a 4 seed though.
Click to expand...
I think they’ll be a #4 on Selection Sunday, especially since Robinson is out for the year. Heck, they may drop to a #5. The committee takes injuries into consideration, as evidenced when juggernaut and consensus #1 Cincinnati was dropped to a #2 seed in 2000 after Kenyon Martin broke his leg in the conference tournament.
 
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#118
#118
bleedingTNorange said:
Lunardi said Auburn can lose 3 in a row and is still a 1, so we aren’t catching them. Kentucky is a 3 seed currently so in theory 3 wins in a row for them and they could be pushing us on the 2 line.
Click to expand...
I was shocked at the graphic they showed during our game where they had Auburn at about a 50% chance to get a 1 seed. That makes zero sense. Even if they lose their last 2 they would still be a 1 and deservingly so
 
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#119
#119
Anti-shunshinepumper said:
Houston has a chance for a QUAD 2 loss.
We need San Diego State to LOSE!
They one bad loss from making their NET fall to above 50.

Matter of fact they playing Wyoming now.
Need to turn that game on and root for whatever Wyoming calls their basketball team.
Click to expand...
Wyoming didn’t pull through, but the NET is more about efficiency than W/L, right? There’s a chance that SDSU drops a bit just from being in a close game with Wyoming.
 
#121
#121
Col_Cathcart said:
Wyoming didn’t pull through, but the NET is more about efficiency than W/L, right? There’s a chance that SDSU drops a bit just from being in a close game with Wyoming.
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Possible. Not sure if they got any significant boost from beating New Mexico.
They were 49 going into that game.
Still have 2 more chances, tho. They got UNLV and Nevada left and they both could certainly pull their NET down.
( just looked, shows they still at 49 NET before this game)
 
#122
#122
We have done everything we needed to do with two games remaining. Worst case now is the top #2 seed if we lose at Ole Miss and Bama or Florida win out.

Bama plays Florida and Auburn next week. They aren’t going 2-0 which means we will be ahead of them on the S-curve no matter what, putting us in Lexington for the first two rounds of the NCAAT.
 
#124
#124
After the Bama win, Lunardi has Tennessee at #4 overall on the 1-line.

South Region
1. Auburn (1)
2. Michigan State (7)

East Region
1. Duke (2)
2. Florida (6)

Midwest Region
1. Houston (3)
2. Alabama (5)

West Region
1. Tennessee (4)
2. Wisconsin (8)

Out of all the 2-seeds, please give me Wisconsin. I would take that draw every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
 
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#125
#125
BallerVolFan said:
After the Bama win, Lunardi has Tennessee at #4 overall on the 1-line.

South Region
1. Auburn (1)
2. Michigan State (7)

East Region
1. Duke (2)
2. Florida (6)

Midwest Region
1. Houston (3)
2. Alabama (5)

West Region
1. Tennessee (4)
2. Wisconsin (8)

Out of all the 2-seeds, please give me Wisconsin. I would take that draw every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Click to expand...

Doubt it works out this way, but if we managed to get the last 1-seed AND score the worst 2-seed in Wisconsin as our draw, sign me up instantly. I wouldn’t be scared of the Badgers at all.
 
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