All things STOCKS

#14,680
#14,680
Wonder if Alibaba is going to split up the stock like they just announced how they are splitting up the company.
 
#14,684
#14,684
Completely agree. Used to own Baba once upon a time and made some nice money, not a ton, but nice. Owned FXI for a while which was an underperformer. I was out of China altogether when the CCP/Xi targeted Jack Ma and that whole deal went down. After that I was done with China forever. Do not trust my money in China holdings, do not trust the CCP or anything China. I don't even trust Chinese food at the mall anymore. EMXC is Emerging Markets "Excluding" China ETF. Looking at that for some EM exposure when things start improving.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: tbh and Jax_Vol
#14,686
#14,686
Vol737 said:
Cooler than expected inflation data is all I've seen, but that was just my cursory first look.
Click to expand...
It’s crazy seeing the response for a drop in inflation from 5.3% to 5%. You’re still losing that much of your non-inflation hedged wealth in a single year. That’s considering CPI under the new, favorable method and not the old method used by the shadow stats guy.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Vol737 and Go aeiou
#14,687
#14,687
UTFanHades said:
It’s crazy seeing the response for a drop in inflation from 5.3% to 5%. You’re still losing that much of your non-inflation hedged wealth in a single year. That’s considering CPI under the new, favorable method and not the old method used by the shadow stats guy.
Click to expand...
Thanks for posting that. I wasn't waware of the change or forgot.
Did they give any indication of what the number would be if calculated using the old method?
I'm dealing with two partners who want to ignore inflation. We have land for sale, and they want to price it way too high with the idea that "we will eventually get our price".
 
  • Like
Reactions: UTFanHades
#14,688
#14,688
Go aeiou said:
Thanks for posting that. I wasn't waware of the change or forgot.
Did they give any indication of what the number would be if calculated using the old method?
I'm dealing with two partners who want to ignore inflation. We have land for sale, and they want to price it way too high with the idea that "we will eventually get our price".
Click to expand...
See link below for his charts and background on the calculations he uses. Fed core CPI is 5% whereas he’s saying 14% under the 1980 method and 9.5% under the 1990 method. I’m assuming he’s getting there by leaving in what are deemed “outliers” under the current methodology, where items are removed from the core basket of goods under the assumption that higher than average price increases aren’t indicative of larger inflation. My thought is those eggs I’m buying at 40% higher are still hitting my wallet, outlier or no.
Alternate Inflation Charts
 
  • Like
Reactions: Go aeiou
#14,689
#14,689
Go aeiou said:
Thanks for posting that. I wasn't waware of the change or forgot.
Did they give any indication of what the number would be if calculated using the old method?
I'm dealing with two partners who want to ignore inflation. We have land for sale, and they want to price it way too high with the idea that "we will eventually get our price".
Click to expand...
Tough position-I’m sure there’s a lot of different present value metrics you could use and get hundreds of price points. Is the land significant enough/zoned to be considered arable? Or have water access? Lots of mega rich buying those sorts of hard assets up. I think you’re in greater Nashville area like me. If it’s zoned commercial or residential I don’t see the desire from people in other states wanting to move here declining. Also-TN has lots of water and one of the best debt ratios amongst the states. I’m very bullish about our state, despite sounding like Chicken Little in every post on this thread.
 
#14,690
#14,690
UTFanHades said:
It’s crazy seeing the response for a drop in inflation from 5.3% to 5%. You’re still losing that much of your non-inflation hedged wealth in a single year. That’s considering CPI under the new, favorable method and not the old method used by the shadow stats guy.
Click to expand...
How do you inflation hedge?
 
#14,691
#14,691
UTFanHades said:
Tough position-I’m sure there’s a lot of different present value metrics you could use and get hundreds of price points. Is the land significant enough/zoned to be considered arable? Or have water access? Lots of mega rich buying those sorts of hard assets up. I think you’re in greater Nashville area like me. If it’s zoned commercial or residential I don’t see the desire from people in other states wanting to move here declining. Also-TN has lots of water and one of the best debt ratios amongst the states. I’m very bullish about our state, despite sounding like Chicken Little in every post on this thread.
Click to expand...
Land is near Kingston, TN. It is rural, but there are a lot of people looking for that. We have sold 4 of 6 tracts. One to a couple from Oregon and another to a young couple who bought for an investment. Others expect to build soon. We owe nothing so bank interest rates don't affect us directly, but at $170-300k many potential buyes have to borrow.
I wish we had more. You are correct, people are looking at moving to TN
 
  • Like
Reactions: UTFanHades
#14,692
#14,692
Orange. said:
How do you inflation hedge?
Click to expand...
Mostly by investing itself. Stock shares get inflated along with everything else. I like to think of a hedge as something that goes up a ton when [event] happens and with inflation it just isn’t possible. With stagflation, obviously TIPS, ibonds, and gold will behave like TIPS, ibonds, and gold, but all they do is give you zero real Return, pretty much. So you have to have a big chunk of your portfolio out of stocks to do this, and i am not comfortable with that.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Orange., UTFanHades, tbh and 1 other person
#14,693
#14,693
Firebirdparts said:
Mostly by investing itself. Stock shares get inflated along with everything else. I like to think of a hedge as something that goes up a ton when [event] happens and with inflation it just isn’t possible. With stagflation, obviously TIPS, ibonds, and gold will behave like TIPS, ibonds, and gold, but all they do is give you zero real Return, pretty much. So you have to have a big chunk of your portfolio out of stocks to do this, and i am not comfortable with that.
Click to expand...
Great post! The fed has created a really tough investing environment in terms of limited return relative to risk compared to what things were like before the 2007-beyond rate cuts and QE. I’m worried a lot of retirees or soon to be retirees will get hosed if the everything bubble pops. Also-young folks are facing huge barriers to entry for wealth because they can’t easily buy homes and are facing huge inflationary costs that eat into savings.

My non-professional personal take:
TIPS/ibonds are popular and very safe as us backed securities. The big downsides to both is that they’re adjusted in line with the Fed’s CPI calc, which removes “outlier” costs that you still might actually have to pay as a consumer. ibonds are also effectively limited to $10k yearly per person, plus another $5k if you purchase with a tax refund.
Metals rarely lose value to USD but you generally get zero yield and the large banks use derivatives to artificially keep the price low. Thus, it’s recommended to keep this as a smaller portion of your portfolio and potentially to increase this ratio as you age. If we see exponential inflation or USD begins to lose reserve currency status, you still won’t need much of this relative to your stock exposure since the gains would be asymmetrical relative to your holdings.
Non-inflationary bonds (govt or corporate) won’t generally beat inflation but provide a measure of wealth preservation with lesser risk (unless rates rise quickly-thanks Fed)
Equities-are considered inflation hedged since presumably the profits of the underlying entities will rise with inflationary costs. It’s hard to get good yield or growth without investing pretty heavily in these. If you’re appropriately allocating to Roth 401k and Roth IRA you’re probably getting a lot of exposure to these via targeted funds/index funds. The Fed has made these the only game in town for decent returns, but that pumping creates a lot of risk relative to those returns, so I’m assuming that bubble is why firebird and others are nervous. You can mitigate the risk here somewhat if you’re not close to retirement as you have time to ride out the bear markets.
Real estate can provide a good inflation hedge through price appreciation or yield through rents but the Fed has again forced a bubble here. Again, you can ride it out by holding if you have time.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Go aeiou
#14,694
#14,694
99 year old Charlie Munger: “you don’t need so much damned diversification”

He says he only owns:
1) Berkshire Hathaway (BRK)
2) CostCo (COST)
3) Real Estate (apartments)
4) A “small” amount of Daily Journal Corporation stock (DJCO)
5) Chinese stocks thru Li Lu’s fund ( Li Lu - Wikipedia )
 
  • Like
Reactions: UTFanHades
#14,696
#14,696
Thunder Good-Oil said:
99 year old Charlie Munger: “you don’t need so much damned diversification”

He says he only owns:
1) Berkshire Hathaway (BRK)
2) CostCo (COST)
3) Real Estate (apartments)
4) A “small” amount of Daily Journal Corporation stock (DJCO)
5) Chinese stocks thru Li Lu’s fund ( Li Lu - Wikipedia )
Click to expand...

I own the first two. But BRK-B
I wonder if Charlie manages and collects his delinquent apartment rents?;)
Costco coming to MT. Juliet, yeah!
 
  • Like
Reactions: UTFanHades and Firebirdparts
#14,697
#14,697
Thunder Good-Oil said:
99 year old Charlie Munger: “you don’t need so much damned diversification”

He says he only owns:
1) Berkshire Hathaway (BRK)
2) CostCo (COST)
3) Real Estate (apartments)
4) A “small” amount of Daily Journal Corporation stock (DJCO)
5) Chinese stocks thru Li Lu’s fund ( Li Lu - Wikipedia )
Click to expand...
BRK-B is one of the few individual stocks I’ve owned. Ben Graham value investing and cash flow heavy businesses at its finest. You see irrational market behavior like Tesla at one point having more market cap than the top 5 competitors and shake your head. The ensuing and in progress route of tech and non-cash flowing entities is why those two old men have lasted this long.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Go aeiou
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top