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#14,901
#14,901
Jax_Vol said:
Yes, they matches my read on the situation. I think the USA government is going to throw a bunch of good money after bad.

I am plugging for Intel, but don't see it happening.
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By the end of 2025, they claim they will have a product to market that can compete with AMD and NVDA's current AI product....

Even if their claims are right (which is dubious given them having multi-year delays with their nm releases, which kept them 2-3 generations behind their competitors), they will still be 3-4 years behind.

If Intel figures it out, people who buy now will make a mint. I just don't know if I see that happening...
 
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#14,902
#14,902
BigOrangeMojo said:
By the end of 2025, they claim they will have a product to market that can compete with AMD and NVDA's current AI product....

Even if their claims are right (which is dubious given them having multi-year delays with their nm releases, which kept them 2-3 generations behind their competitors), they will still be 3-4 years behind.

If Intel figures it out, people who buy now will make a mint. I just don't know if I see that happening...
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Yup!

What are your thoughts on Cicso? They have been treading water for a decade now. I somewhat expected them to also have a total collapse, but they seem to get still moving product. Just not really growing any.. Haven't looked at their numbers, so they may be dropping.
 
#14,903
#14,903
INTC is worth taking a swing at. AMD isn’t really a direct competitor since they went fabless since jettisoning Global Foundries. AMD is also 3 or 4 times as expensive as a multiple of sales. So is TXN.

Intel is an integrated device manufacturer which makes TI and Samsung their biggest direct competitor. MU and ON also can be defined as IDMs.

However, INTC is highly dependent on Dell and IBM as customers.

If things continue unraveling in China and if the CCP gets stupid with Taiwan, Intel will be very well positioned. They’re also probably considered too strategically important for the government to not prop them up.

Being the maker of fanciest micro chips doesn’t necessarily mean it’s also the best investment. ADI has done what they do very well.
 
#14,905
#14,905
Little input would be great! Is selling my NVIDIA shares right now with plans to buy back later too short sighted?
 
#14,906
#14,906
UTgrad2015 said:
Little input would be great! Is selling my NVIDIA shares right now with plans to buy back later too short sighted?
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I’m there as well. It’s a coin flip. A very rich valuation, but also with a lot of momentum.

Trillion dollar companies are becoming a regular thing. I think that AAPL is at $2.5 trillion (I think that the entire United Kingdom public stocks are worth $3.5 trillion).

At the very least, be diversified if you hold on. If NVDA represents more than 10% or 15% of your holdings, selling some shares wouldn’t be a bad idea.
 
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#14,907
#14,907
UTgrad2015 said:
Little input would be great! Is selling my NVIDIA shares right now with plans to buy back later too short sighted?
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If you graduated UTK is 2015, just lock those away and never look back. It will double in five years.

Yeah, you might buy them back cheaper in early October. But, it is 50 / 50.

NVDA is just a stash away and hold type company. They are going to kill it. IMHO, no real value in trying to time it.
 
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#14,908
#14,908
If interest rates were near zero then the 200x earnings valuation would make more sense. NVDA is a $400 stock with about $2/share of current earnings. The rich valuation is based on the discounted value of the future earnings. When interest rates are high then the present value of those future earnings (and thus the stock price) are valued far less.

If your investment has doubled in value, you can always sell half. Then you have your initial investment back.

Another consideration if selling NVDA. What to do with that money? But short term government debt is around 5% now, not a bad place to hunker down on the sidelines.
 
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#14,909
#14,909
Jax_Vol said:
If you graduated UTK is 2015, just lock those away and never look back. It will double in five years.

Yeah, you might buy them back cheaper in early October. But, it is 50 / 50.

NVDA is just a stash away and hold type company. They are going to kill it. IMHO, no real value in trying to time it.
Click to expand...

I wouldn’t assume a 14% plus return in each of the next 5 years in anything.
 
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#14,912
#14,912
Jax_Vol said:
If you graduated UTK is 2015, just lock those away and never look back. It will double in five years.

Yeah, you might buy them back cheaper in early October. But, it is 50 / 50.

NVDA is just a stash away and hold type company. They are going to kill it. IMHO, no real value in trying to time it.
Click to expand...
Yes, I indeed graduated in 2015 so I know I have a little ways til I need to think about selling for realized gains, but I just really enjoy it lol

I’m just already up like 200-220 per share and if the stock drops back to reality, then it’s always nice to make a little more cash to reinvest
 
#14,913
#14,913
UTgrad2015 said:
Yes, I indeed graduated in 2015 so I know I have a little ways til I need to think about selling for realized gains, but I just really enjoy it lol

I’m just already up like 200-220 per share and if the stock drops back to reality, then it’s always nice to make a little more cash to reinvest
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Sometimes I sell half and keep half. That one isn't going anywhere long term (for next 5+ years). Excellent pick!

What would you buy with your proceeds? I'm always searching for a hot hand.
 
#14,915
#14,915
Jax_Vol said:
Usually, I do the opposite of whatever they say on CNBC. Particularly, Jim Cramer...lol!

Rodney provides the best investment advice of all time...

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They have guests making an argument for every position rather than a consensus. It depends on who’s talking. Cramer seems like kind of a huckster. Then they also give lots of opportunities to young advisors and analysts to have their media moment - you never know who will become a star stock picker down the road so they’ll make nice with all sorts. Even when they’re kind of dumb. Elaine Garzarella pretty much made a career out of being lucky calling 1987.

There are certainly guests that are on a higher level with their wisdom and experience. Art Cashin, Liz Ann Sonders, and Stephanie Link are always worth a listen.

https://www.cnbc.com/contributors/
 
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#14,916
#14,916
Jax_Vol said:
Sometimes I sell half and keep half. That one isn't going anywhere long term (for next 5+ years). Excellent pick!

What would you buy with your proceeds? I'm always searching for a hot hand.
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Most likely just wait for a good re-entry price for NVIDIA, but I’m heavily invested in tech which has been exploding, so I’m expecting it to come crashing down soon. So I’ll most likely set some cash aside and look for a deal within tech
 
#14,922
#14,922
Thunder Good-Oil said:
C-SPAN tonight at 7pm ought to be the House vote on raising the debt ceiling. Sell on the news?
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"Some people are saying" that after the debt deal there will be a surge in treasury supply (higher interest rates?) and it will also decrease liquidity. More stress on regional banks?

 
#14,924
#14,924
UTgrad2015 said:
Most likely just wait for a good re-entry price for NVIDIA, but I’m heavily invested in tech which has been exploding, so I’m expecting it to come crashing down soon. So I’ll most likely set some cash aside and look for a deal within tech
Click to expand...

I'm thinking tech will stay on the upslope for another 3ish months. But, your guess is as good as mine.
 
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