All things STOCKS

#14,876
#14,876
Velo Vol said:
At some point I think the recent "AI"/tech inflows are going to rotate somewhere else. Not sure when or where.
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I don't think it will. But, your guess is as good as mine.

If it does, we can eliminate some things it won't go into....banks, energy, commercial real estate.

I still like healthcare very much. And, people are spending money again so consumer discretionary and somewhat staples should be fine.
 
#14,877
#14,877
Jax_Vol said:
I don't think it will. But, your guess is as good as mine.

If it does, we can eliminate some things it won't go into....banks, energy, commercial real estate.

I still like healthcare very much. And, people are spending money again so consumer discretionary and somewhat staples should be fine.
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It's still above where it was a couple months ago, but still.

 
#14,882
#14,882
I had half of my NVDA called away last week. I was concerned about the upcoming earnings report and the crazy valuation on the sales multiple. Not a problem though. It was still more than a double in less than a year. Let NFLX also get called, but I think I can buy it back for less than my sale price - not planning to do that though.

I am nibbling on energy (oil). Way off of the highs and even if EVs ramp up, the grid continues to move away from coal and the sun and wind won’t keep it humming. CVX and XOM

I’m always watching healthcare. Dexcom might be getting to a decent price, but I don’t think that they have a very good revenue mix. I might buy a tiny amount of LABU. Maybe be I’ll add some ISRG. The elective surgery business should have a big backlog post COVID.
 
#14,884
#14,884
Fidelity Select Semiconductors Portfolio (FSELX) made 10.5% yesterday.

Can't recall the last time I saw a mutual fund make over 10% in a single session.
 
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#14,885
#14,885
Jax_Vol said:
Fidelity Select Semiconductors Portfolio (FSELX) made 10.5% yesterday.

Can't recall the last time I saw a mutual fund make over 10% in a single session.
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You also don’t see days where a single company adds a quarter trillion of market cap. NVDA probably did more than half of the 10% by itself and the rest indirectly by raising all of the chip stocks.
 
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#14,887
#14,887
Velo Vol said:
Really smells of a narrow DotCom II.
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I don't think so. The pandemic put a pounding on them for 2020, 2021, 2022. We (the world) haven't been able to get into the factories to make chips. ASML had a big fire. Intel CEO totally lost his mind and job. Cars are stacked up in places because that can't get chips.

We are just starting to see the release of that pressure. The NVDA forecast of this year is something like x4 the expectation.

The China business of excluding MU adds a twist.

In hindsight, I'm disappointed with myself that I didn't see it coming. Even though I had it a bit covered with the mutual funds FSELX and VITAX.

I think the whole technology and communications sectors are going to continue to stream roll this year. I would be surprised if technology isn't the top gaining sector for 2023.
 
#14,888
#14,888
Thunder Good-Oil said:
You also don’t see days where a single company adds a quarter trillion of market cap. NVDA probably did more than half of the 10% by itself and the rest indirectly by raising all of the chip stocks.
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Oh yeah, it pulled them all by itself. Approximately a quarter of that fund is NVDA stock.

That report surprised the heck outta me. And Caty Woods who dumped most of her NVDA back in November.
 
#14,889
#14,889
If you want a small company with a niche in semiconductors, ACLS has been a winner the last couple of years.

They do considerable exporting to China, so that is a bit of a concern.

Personally, I don't see China making any quick actions.
 
#14,890
#14,890
Velo Vol said:
Really smells of a narrow DotCom II.
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Some of the crazy valuations resemble the dot com days. But this time there are more reasonable influences. AI will directly make a lot of users more efficient. SOME companies will do well creating it. Then there’s the COVID and supply chain backlog being worked out of the system. The Inflation Reduction Act is propping up EVs and other industries.

But the biggest difference is that this time there are real companies selling real products. Much of the revenue growth behind dot com was fraudulently overstating the value of ads being placed as trade on each other’s websites. The sock puppet companies were exchanging multi-million dollar advertising campaigns on each others platforms in trade with similar companies when in fact nobody was even paying a few thousand dollars for the same ads in cash deals.
 
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#14,891
#14,891
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Some of the crazy valuations resemble the dot com days. But this time there are more reasonable influences. AI will directly make a lot of users more efficient. SOME companies will do well creating it. Then there’s the COVID and supply chain backlog being worked out of the system. The Inflation Reduction Act is propping up EVs and other industries.

But the biggest difference is that this time there are real companies selling real products. Much of the revenue growth behind dot com was fraudulently overstating the value of ads being placed as trade on each other’s websites. The sock puppet companies were exchanging multi-million dollar advertising campaigns on each others platforms in trade with similar companies when in fact nobody was even paying a few thousand dollars for the same ads in cash deals.
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My question is whether Intel can re-enter that game. As a proud member of USA, wish they could.

But, the investor in me won't touch them for $10. The govt is going to prop them and Global Foundries up. Maybe some Texas Instrument. But, I can't see Intel ever getting back into the game; even with the new buildings in Ohio.
 
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#14,893
#14,893
Jax_Vol said:
My question is whether Intel can re-enter that game. As a proud member of USA, wish they could.

But, the investor in me won't touch them for $10. The govt is going to prop them and Global Foundries up. Maybe some Texas Instrument. But, I can't see Intel ever getting back into the game; even with the new buildings in Ohio.
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They sure didn’t innovate after riding the Microsoft PC wave to the peak. Maybe they’ll see their bottom line pop in a few years after their investment in domestic manufacturing has been absorbed into their income statement somewhat.
 
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#14,894
#14,894
tbh said:
That AVGO purchase at a mid-500s cost basis a while back made today a swell day!
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Great move!


I was undecided on whether Tim Cook was trying to move away from them, or re-up for another dance. Looks like they are going to prom together, so AVGO will be ok.

Probably a good time to buy Apple as well. They were quiet last year, so should be rocking this time for Christmas. Again, don't think China will cause Tim many problems.
 
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#14,895
#14,895
Jax_Vol said:
Great move!


I was undecided on whether Tim Cook was trying to move away from them, or re-up for another dance. Looks like they are going to prom together, so AVGO will be ok.

Probably a good time to buy Apple as well. They were quiet last year, so should be rocking this time for Christmas. Again, don't think China will cause Tim many problems.
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Tim holds more cards in China than the CCP does. The CCP can bully around Micron. They can’t do that to AAPL.
 
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#14,896
#14,896
Don’t forget that Broadcom is trying to acquire VMWare. If you want shares of Broadcom you can probably get it for less by buying VMWare shares. But the European regulators are busy making it more difficult.

Sell cash reserved VMW puts and get Broadcom even cheaper.
 
#14,897
#14,897
Jax_Vol said:
Great move!


I was undecided on whether Tim Cook was trying to move away from them, or re-up for another dance. Looks like they are going to prom together, so AVGO will be ok.

Probably a good time to buy Apple as well. They were quiet last year, so should be rocking this time for Christmas. Again, don't think China will cause Tim many problems.
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I figured the needle would move based on the news of the recent AAPL-AVGO developments, but not *this* much. Not that I'm complaining.
 
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#14,899
#14,899
Jax_Vol said:
My question is whether Intel can re-enter that game. As a proud member of USA, wish they could.

But, the investor in me won't touch them for $10. The govt is going to prop them and Global Foundries up. Maybe some Texas Instrument. But, I can't see Intel ever getting back into the game; even with the new buildings in Ohio.
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They are just so far behind their competitors. This is the same discussion we've had about them as they've fallen from the $60s, had it in the $50s, the $40s, the $30s, and now the $20s They have the cash/earnings to catch up, they have the government support to catch up, I just don't know if they have the internal will to catch up....
 
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#14,900
#14,900
BigOrangeMojo said:
They are just so far behind their competitors. This is the same discussion we've had about them as they've fallen from the $60s, had it in the $50s, the $40s, the $30s, and now the $20s They have the cash/earnings to catch up, they have the government support to catch up, I just don't know if they have the internal will to catch up....
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Yes, they matches my read on the situation. I think the USA government is going to throw a bunch of good money after bad.

I am plugging for Intel, but don't see it happening.
 
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