All things STOCKS

#14,851
#14,851
Jax_Vol said:
FSELX has been my fund for the semiconductors. I'm bullish there. China is a concern, but I think the other Asian countries will pick up slack. Hope Intel can get back to good ole days. Do like their CEO, but they've dug quite a hole. US Government is going to throw money at it. We'll see.

In general, semiconductors fall into the demand exceeding supply category. They haven't yet fully recovered from pandemic. In my opinion, lots of money to be made there. Mixed feeling on Global Foundries. Like the CEO, but think NVDA is bad bet for remainder of this year. Also think, Buffett bailed out too early on TWM. Not worried about China bothering them. But, Warren's people pour over books, so know more than we do. Love ASML.
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I think that China is nothing more than short term noise right now. Every major player should already be moving forward by developing alternate capacity and/or suppliers in North America, SE Asia, S Korea, India, etc. Those that stick with China are taking a huge risk. I’d guess that China can’t afford to be aggressive with Taiwan. The rest of the world players could put on sanctions and starve that country out of existence. Xi Jinping needs to go away and those people need a reset.

AAPL might be facing tough sledding. Hopefully for them they’ve been working on a sound plan to at least scale way back there if not exit entirely.
 
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#14,852
#14,852
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I think that China is nothing more than short term noise right now. Every major player should already be moving forward by developing alternate capacity and/or suppliers in North America, SE Asia, S Korea, India, etc. Those that stick with China are taking a huge risk. I’d guess that China can’t afford to be aggressive with Taiwan. The rest of the world players could put on sanctions and starve that country out of existence. Xi Jinping needs to go away and those people need a reset.

AAPL might be facing tough sledding. Hopefully for them they’ve been working on a sound plan to at least scale way back there if not exit entirely.
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Yes, that is a very valid point about AAPL. Knowing ole Auburn man, Tim Cook, bet he has something up his sleeve.

I selected VTCAX as my new mutual fund holding. Communications sector. They focus on those companies I mentioned that I can't gauge. Going to pay the pros to handle it for me, and will look again at Christmas. Just like good ole VolNation here, I feel that U.S. continues to have a huge appetite for internet, tv watching, social chatter, etc. Makes us fat, so also ties to my interest in the miracle weight loss drugs from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk.
 
#14,853
#14,853
Jax_Vol said:
FSELX has been my fund for the semiconductors. I'm bullish there. China is a concern, but I think the other Asian countries will pick up slack. Hope Intel can get back to good ole days. Do like their CEO, but they've dug quite a hole. US Government is going to throw money at it. We'll see.

In general, semiconductors fall into the demand exceeding supply category. They haven't yet fully recovered from pandemic. In my opinion, lots of money to be made there. Mixed feeling on Global Foundries. Like the CEO, but think NVDA is bad bet for remainder of this year. Also think, Buffett bailed out too early on TWM. Not worried about China bothering them. But, Warren's people pour over books, so know more than we do. Love ASML.
Click to expand...

I think that China is nothing more than short term noise right now. Every major player should already be moving forward by developing alternate capacity and/or suppliers in North America, SE Asia, S Korea, India, etc. Those that stick with China are taking a huge risk. I’d guess that China can’t afford to be aggressive with Taiwan. The rest of the world players could put on sanctions and starve that country out of existence. Xi Jinping needs to go away and those people need a reset.

AAPL might be facing tough sledding. Hopefully for them they’ve been working on a sound plan to at least scale way back there if not exit entirely.
Jax_Vol said:
Think you probably know, but AMZN is not included in the IT index. It falls under Consumer Discretionary.

We have discussed this several times before. It is extremely hard to fathom right now, but I am such a Microsoft fan. Without Bezos, long term, I foresee Azure running AWS into the ground. And, we do agree...w/o AWS, Amazon is going to struggle. But, I may be wrong wrong wrong..
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Good point. I wasn’t thinking of AMZN’s place in the S&P defined sectors as much as their business. AWS represents more than half of the company’s value. Apple is almost the opposite. They might now be better classified as consumer. At least as Warren Buffett sees AAPL.
 
#14,855
#14,855
Velo Vol said:
Highish?

Guess I should look at the other funds there before I sell the shares.

Mutual Funds

Right now I wouldn't want to put money in information technology. It's had a run and seems pricey.
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What age range you in? Retired or working?

If that is recent photo of you on the bike, looks like you need to pick one or two from the group that has word 'growth' in them.

So, I count eight of them: SUGAX, PINDX, PEGKX, PFGRX, PGITX, PIGFX, FUNCX, FUGCX, etc.

Do you see any of those without the IT stuff that you wish to avoid?
 
#14,858
#14,858
Jax_Vol said:
What age range you in? Retired or working?
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50s.

I looked at a few of those versus the SPX, Russell, and the comparison isn't great. +1% expense ratio.

If I was buying now I certainly wouldn't put new money in them, I'll put it that way.
 
#14,860
#14,860
Velo Vol said:
50s.

I looked at a few of those versus the SPX, Russell, and the comparison isn't great. +1% expense ratio.

If I was buying now I certainly wouldn't put new money in them, I'll put it that way.
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Yes. I did research that further, but didn't find any individual fund manager from Vanguard or Fidelity who are just killing it long-term these days.

In your 50's, just keeping pouring the monies into low cost Russell, SPX, 500. You will be fine!

Perhaps by October, you may see VITAX drop. I do recommend that everyone has the information technology index. As I recall, the cost is only .04%. That one is in my opinion one of the surest 10-20 year bets you can make.
 
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#14,861
#14,861
Velo Vol said:
50s.

I looked at a few of those versus the SPX, Russell, and the comparison isn't great. +1% expense ratio.

If I was buying now I certainly wouldn't put new money in them, I'll put it that way.
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I have a general question about comparisons. People often say take the low cost, passive funds because of the effect of fees. But aren't fees deducted before final results so that when you see a (say, 1% fee) managed fund beat the indices over time it means they did it after fees, right?
 
#14,862
#14,862
Orange. said:
I have a general question about comparisons. People often say take the low cost, passive funds because of the effect of fees. But aren't fees deducted before final results so that when you see a (say, 1% fee) managed fund beat the indices over time it means they did it after fees, right?
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Management fees are incorporated in published fund returns. However if the fund charges loads or commissions those wouldn’t be included as they vary depending on the investor..
 
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#14,863
#14,863
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Management fees are incorporated in published fund returns. However if the fund charges loads or commissions those wouldn’t be included as they vary depending on the investor..
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Yes, the % gained number is after fees.

Disclaimer: As Thunder mentions, there are types of ways they get you for extra bucks. Loads is a common tactic. If using a financial advisor, his/her fee is extra. etc
 
#14,864
#14,864
Orange. said:
I have a general question about comparisons. People often say take the low cost, passive funds because of the effect of fees. But aren't fees deducted before final results so that when you see a (say, 1% fee) managed fund beat the indices over time it means they did it after fees, right?
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Yes, always. the performance of funds "before fees" is simply not available or used or discussed. Performance "before fees" is simply not knowledge you have and you're never going to be comparing funds on that basis.

****HOWEVER***

S&P Global has been studying whether or not active funds actually outperform for many years, and the data are widely available. See here:
SPIVA | S&P Dow Jones Indices

When somebody says "yes the fee is higher but my fund that I like outperforms the S&P in the future" you should always not believe that person. And especially if the person is yourself. Easy choice here. Just assume the person is wrong. Then, if you want to investigate whether by some shocking magic they might be right, start investigating from that perspective. That's the proper perspective.

Just grasp here that there is a non-stupid question that needs to be asked. In a year, about half the funds outperform the S&P and about half underperform. Taken altogether, they lag by the amount of fees. This is kind of a mathematical necessity. The non-stupid question is whether the outperforming funds this year are the same ones as last year. That's what you need to know. Over a 10 year period, there are still about 9% of active funds that outperformed. Do you pick one? You could probably do worse, right? It's not a terrible decision.

There's a second non-stupid question, and that is whether the S&P500 is the proper benchmark. I say yes, but then I never belabor anything.
 
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#14,866
#14,866
Velo Vol said:
Oof.

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That should keep a lot of those NASDAQ stocks low. LMND, FVRR, UPST, ZBRA, and TEAM are good buys right now. FUBO is a little riskier...especially if they do a reverse split someday....we'll see, but it has potential to make people big bucks if timed right. UPST may be a short squeeze candidate.
 
#14,869
#14,869
Call me crazy, but I thought what he said was obvious and everybody already knew it. I would never have posted it just for that reason alone.
 
#14,872
#14,872
Velo Vol said:
This used to be normal.

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Exactly! Numb nuts Bullard kept his mouth shut until the rates started going up. Now, he jumps up and down bellowing for weeks on in that everything is going up up up. Anyhoo....enough on him.

Novo Nordisk (NVO)....starting to heat up. Studies due in over two years that will prove we need to add semaglutide to the drinking water across the world.


Bagsværd, Denmark, 22 May 2023 – Novo Nordisk today announced headline results from OASIS 1, a phase 3a trial in the global OASIS programme. OASIS 1 is a 68-week, efficacy and safety trial comparing once-daily oral semaglutide 50 mg for weight management to placebo in 667 adults with obesity or overweight with one or more comorbidities. Both treatment arms were in conjunction with lifestyle intervention. The trial achieved its primary endpoint by demonstrating a statistically significant and superior weight loss at week 68 with oral semaglutide 50 mg versus placebo.
When evaluating the effects of treatment if all people adhered to treatment1 from a mean baseline body weight of 105.4 kg, people treated with oral semaglutide 50 mg achieved a statistically significant weight loss of 17.4% after 68 weeks compared to a 1.8% reduction with placebo. In addition, 89.2% of those who received oral semaglutide 50 mg, reached a weight loss of 5% or more after 68 weeks, compared to 24.5% with placebo.
When applying the treatment policy estimand2, people treated with oral semaglutide 50 mg achieved a superior weight loss of 15.1% compared to a reduction of 2.4% with placebo and 84.9% achieved a weight loss of 5% or more, compared to 25.8% with placebo.
“We are very pleased with the weight loss demonstrated by the once-daily oral formulation of semaglutide in obesity. The results show comparable weight loss as in the STEP 1 trial with injectable semaglutide 2.4 mg in obesity branded as Wegovy®”, said Martin Holst Lange, executive vice president for Development at Novo Nordisk. ”The choice between a daily tablet or weekly injection for obesity has the potential to offer patients and healthcare providers the opportunity to choose what best suits individual treatment preferences”.
In the trial, oral semaglutide 50 mg appeared to have a safe and well-tolerated profile. The most common adverse events were gastrointestinal, and the vast majority were mild to moderate and diminished over time and were consistent with the GLP-1 receptor agonist class. Gastrointestinal adverse events were most prominent during dose escalation.
Novo Nordisk expects to file for regulatory approval in the US and the EU in 2023. The global launch of oral semaglutide 50 mg is contingent on portfolio prioritisations and manufacturing capacity.
About the OASIS clinical trial programme
OASIS is a phase 3 clinical development programme with once-daily oral semaglutide 25 mg and 50 mg in obesity. The global clinical phase 3 programme currently consists of four trials, having enrolled approximately 1,300 adults with obesity or overweight with one or more comorbidities.
OASIS 1 – a 68-week efficacy and safety phase 3a trial of once-daily oral semaglutide 50 mg versus placebo in 667 adults with obesity or overweight with one or more comorbidities.
OASIS 2 – a 68-week efficacy and safety phase 3a trial of once-daily oral semaglutide 50 mg versus placebo in 198 East Asian (including Japan) adults with obesity or overweight with one or more comorbidities.
OASIS 3 – a 44-week efficacy and safety phase 3a trial of once-daily oral semaglutide 50 mg versus placebo in 200 Chinese adults with obesity or overweight with one or more comorbidities.
OASIS 4 – a 64-week efficacy and safety phase 3b trial of once-daily oral semaglutide 25 mg versus placebo in 300 adults with obesity or overweight with one or more comorbidities.
 
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