All things STOCKS

#1,803
#1,803
BigOrangeMojo said:
Although I'm not sure we've seen the bottom, I think you will look back 10 years from now and realize this month was a good buying month..
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This is literally buying low to sell high. Start buying the best companies now and buy more when the markets drop another 4-5 %. Trying to hit the exact bottom isn't possible. As they say it's "like trying to catch a falling knife".
 
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#1,813
#1,813
Big Gucci Sosa said:
There you go. Seems like the big drop already occurred.
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I might buy some shares if it quickly drops to the teens or slowly to $100.

I thought that most or the market carnage was in, but I didn't realize that markets dropped nearly 90% during the drepession. Of course there are things in place to keep markets more orderly today versus 92 years ago.
 
#1,814
#1,814
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I might buy some shares if it quickly drops to the teens or slowly to $100.

I thought that most or the market carnage was in, but I didn't realize that markets dropped nearly 90% during the drepession. Of course there are things in place to keep markets more orderly today versus 92 years ago.
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It was 89 2 weeks ago. Don't put that bad juju on me
 
#1,815
#1,815
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I might buy some shares if it quickly drops to the teens or slowly to $100.

I thought that most or the market carnage was in, but I didn't realize that markets dropped nearly 90% during the drepession. Of course there are things in place to keep markets more orderly today versus 92 years ago.
Click to expand...

I know we talked about this a long time ago (March 11 ha ha) but this gives Boeing a chance to fix the MAX and after COVID, people will forget about the Max debacle.
 
#1,822
#1,822
I think that DollarTree (DLTR) will be up nicely in the next few months or year or two. It's down from $120 to $60 and now back to $80. Since they sell food and other necessary supplies they're staying open and they look busy. I haven't driven by a Dollar General (DG), but I expect they're also seeing a lot of traffic. DG is much closer to their previous high. Both sell a lot of junk that's made in China, but there's no embargo from Chi-Com (yet). They might get mad when the US looks for other sources for meds and military components, but they won't cease selling the useless crap and the easy to make goods to us.

I read an interesting take from Cramer on the longer term view of retail. He was predicting that there could be just 3 survivors. Amazon, Walmart, and CostCo. I don't think that Home Depot, Lowes, Krogers, or probably Target, Staples, the dollar stores, or even Best Buy will be leaving anytime soon.
 
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#1,823
#1,823
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I think that DollarTree (DLTR) will be up nicely in the next few months or year or two. It's down from $120 to $60 and now back to $80. Since they sell food and other necessary supplies they're staying open and they look busy. I haven't driven by a Dollar General (DG), but I expect they're also seeing a lot of traffic. DG is much closer to their previous high. Both sell a lot of junk that's made in China, but there's no embargo from Chi-Com (yet). They might get mad when the US looks for other sources for meds and military components, but they won't cease selling the useless crap and the easy to make goods to us.

I read an interesting take from Cramer on the longer term view of retail. He was predicting that there could be just 3 survivors. Amazon, Walmart, and CostCo. I don't think that Home Depot, Lowes, Krogers, or probably Target, Staples, the dollar stores, or even Best Buy will be leaving anytime soon.
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Only downside about DLTR is Family Dollar is a mess. DG is just a better company than DLTR. I started a position in FIVE (Five Below is a nice Dollar Tree) less than 2 weeks ago. I still like DLTR in this environment

Obviously, there will be more than 3 retailers the long term. The most expensive mile in retail is the final one. HD, TGT, dollar stores will survive long term. Not sure about Best Buy or Staples though
 
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#1,825
#1,825
BigOrangeMojo said:
Only downside about DLTR is Family Dollar is a mess. DG is just a better company than DLTR. I started a position in FIVE (Five Below is a nice Dollar Tree) less than 2 weeks ago. I still like DLTR in this environment

Obviously, there will be more than 3 retailers the long term. The most expensive mile in retail is the final one. HD, TGT, dollar stores will survive long term. Not sure about Best Buy or Staples though
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I didn't swing by the Five Below, they may not even be open right now. Not sure.

I think that the Family Dollar acquisition has been around long enough that it's pretty much been priced in. DollarTree can close the bad ones and cut their losses. If nothing else they've eliminated one of their 2 primary competitors.

What I'd be more concerned about in the longer term for DollarTree is their pricing. At some point everything being a dollar becomes a problem. At least I think that Family Dollar priced more like DG, but admittedly I've never set foot in a FD. I've been in FIVE and it really didn't impress me, maybe if I was looking for kid's items it would. But most of the stuff looks like DLTR stuff, so their markup must be relatively huge.

All 3: DG, FIVE, and DLTR could be crushed if Walmart shifts their focus from super stores and add smaller spaces like DG, 5, Tree. As they expand their online business it might make a lot of sense for them to scatter smaller stores in more places to also serve as distribution points for customer pickups. Actually I was kind of expecting to see Amazon swoop in and pick up the Sears location on the cheap.

BestBuy and Staples future will depend on what customers want. Walmart sells lots of electronics and office supplies, but there's much less variety. No doubt they focus on having the most profitable goods (markup and/or turnover) in their stores. BestBuy and Staples could see issues similar to what hospitals face. All of those little clinics can peel off the highly profitable parts of healthcare and aren't burdened by having to take on any and all ailments. But way different industry with Medicare/Medicare and the government (and insurance) involvement.
 
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