Ap Top 25, Vols #5

#177
#177
Not sure why so much energy is being devoted to LSU here. An 11-1 Michigan and a 12-1 PAC 12 champ both seem like more likely scenarios, and both might end with higher SOS that Tennessee.

Maybe that's what we should be asking. What will be the final SOS of an 11-1 Tennessee, an 11-1 Michigan, and a 12-1 USC/Oregon?
 
#178
#178
If Michigan loses a game, they are out. They have played a historically bad OOC schedule and the Big Ten hasn't exactly lit it up outside of OSU and UM. That's why they were ranked behind Clemson this week.

The only way they get in with a loss is if everyone (outside of OSU and GA) has 2 or more losses. I believe a 1 loss ACC champ Clemson gets in over a one loss Michigan team, and I don't see Clemson getting in.

TCU going undefeated and potentially a one loss PAC 12 champ are the teams to worry about. And USC worries me more here than Oregon thanks to Oregon getting killed by UGA. Or if Michigan beats Ohio State because God knows this committee loves the Buckeyes.
 
#179
#179
I guess I'd like to see the data on Michigan instead of accepting it as gospel. Right now, thru have a higher FPI than Tennessee, 23.5 to 21,5. They also have a stronger remaining schedule. Seems like a problem if we finish with the same record.
 
#180
#180
Dougie_D said:
If LSU wins they become the 4th seed as a (11-2) SEC Champ w/ wins over AL, GA , and Georgia gets the 3rd spot at runner up (12-1). How hard is this to get? TN didn’t beat GA
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Apparently it's pretty hard. LSU does not become the 4th seed with a win in the SECCG. There are no automatic qualifiers for the College Football Playoffs. Conference Championships are a factor, but so is W/L record, strength of schedule, and head-to-head matchups. When you look at our body of work and compare it to LSU's body of work there's no way to put them in over us even if they beat Georgia in the SECCG.

Those of you saying LSU controls their own destiny are basically saying non-conference games don't matter to SEC schools. The selection committee isn't going to see it that way.
 
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#181
#181
SockeyeVol said:
Not sure why so much energy is being devoted to LSU here. An 11-1 Michigan and a 12-1 PAC 12 champ both seem like more likely scenarios, and both might end with higher SOS that Tennessee.

Maybe that's what we should be asking. What will be the final SOS of an 11-1 Tennessee, an 11-1 Michigan, and a 12-1 USC/Oregon?
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Our SOS is 2 right now. Michigan sits at 73. There is no way they catch us with just a few games remaining. Oregon might be close, but we still share the common opponent. It would definitely help our case for them to drop another game. I still think we get in over them as of now.
 
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#182
#182
Kristy* said:
Our SOS is 2 right now. Michigan sits at 73. There is no way they catch us with just a few games remaining. Oregon might be close, but we still share the common opponent. It would definitely help our case for them to drop another game. I still think we get in over them as of now.
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Thanks for the reply.

Where do you see that current SoS list? This seems like the most variable of the stats to find. Lotta sites with their own versions.
 
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#184
#184
All4TN said:
NCAA College Football Rankings: AP Top 25 Football Poll | AP News
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Honestly this is a fair ranking. Couldn't continue to keep TCU out. Sonny Dykes has earned his respect in season 1 and deserves the nod. #5 is a good spot right now. It's totally conceivavle any of hte top 4 could lose with their remaining schedules. UT got their loss in at an opportune time in the ranking process. You don't want to drop a game any later than this in the season. I'm expecting a 5th spot in the CFP tomorrow, with an outlier of remaining top 4. No way to to stay #4 this week though without screwing TCU.
 
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#185
#185
Dougie_D said:
If LSU wins they become the 4th seed as a (11-2) SEC Champ w/ wins over AL, GA , and Georgia gets the 3rd spot at runner up (12-1). How hard is this to get? TN didn’t beat GA
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Well, Hubbs and the other guys seem to agree with you. I just don’t see how the committee could ignore a bad loss to FSU and their head-to-head loss to us, despite it being early in the season. From my point of view, I don’t see how hard that is to get, but I guess that’s why I’m not on the committee.
 
#186
#186
Right now, Clemson and the Pac 12 winner probably have the inside track on the final spot. Like it or not, the committee values winning your conference. Loser of the Michigan/OSU game is likely out of it completely.

Right now, I would say the final 4 will be UGA(puke), Michigan, TCU, and Pac 12 winner. We get in if Clemson loses and Pac 12 winner has 2 losses.
 
#188
#188
CNCVol88 said:
I love how the dude from south bend is just completely unwavered that Alabama is not only better than Tennessee but is a top 5 team.

Mike Berardino at College Poll Tracker
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I thought I read somewhere on another board where he said something along the lines of "Alabama would have beaten Tennessee if Bryce Young had played" but now I can't find it, so maybe I dreamed it. . Seems like one of those voters who doesn't actually watch football and just looks at box scores.....if that.
 
#189
#189
Oregon has been playing great after the Bulldogs demolished them which fortunately for them was the 1st game of the Ducks season.
That is why the Ducks realistically can make the 4 teams College Football playoffs if they don’t lose a second game.




I’m a proud Volunteers fan, and I’m confident the Volunteers win their final 3 regular season games.
While Tennessee isn’t in the driver’s seat for making the 4 teams College Football playoffs I still remain realistically optimistic the Volunteers make the 4 teams College Football Playoffs.
 
#190
#190
So much can happen in the next few weeks including the SECCG it's not even funny. All we can do is win out and let the cards fall.

Around this time in 1998 Ohio State was ranked #1 and Vols sat at #2. OSU lost to Michigan State which put the Vols at #1. Everyone talked about how we were going to play Kansas St. or UCLA. I mean, the last few weeks were dominated by the question: "Who would you rather play?" It was a given we were going to play one or the other. Then, the week of the SECCG, we all know what happened: UCLA had to play Miami, a make-up game due to a hurricane in Miami early in the season. UCLA lost, then Kansas St lost to Texas A&M in their conference championship game, opening the door to Florida State, who up til then wasn't even part of the discussion.

I would agree with most posters that at this point in the season, our chances of getting into the playoff are very good if we win out the regular season.
 
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#191
#191
Vol_in_NC_1999 said:
So much can happen in the next few weeks including the SECCG it's not even funny. All we can do is win out and let the cards fall.

Around this time in 1998 Ohio State was ranked #1 and Vols sat at #2. OSU lost to Michigan State which put the Vols at #1. Everyone talked about how we were going to play Kansas St. or UCLA. I mean, the last few weeks were dominated by the question: "Who would you rather play?" It was a given we were going to play one or the other. Then, the week of the SECCG, we all know what happened: UCLA had to play Miami, a make-up game due to a hurricane in Miami early in the season. UCLA lost, then Kansas St lost to Texas A&M in their conference championship game, opening the door to Florida State, who up til then wasn't even part of the discussion.

I would agree with most posters that at this point in the season, our chances of getting into the playoff are very good if we win out the regular season.
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I’m very happy the 2022 Volunteers have a chance to make the 4 teams College Football Playoffs even with needing certain teams to lose.

Also because realistically the Volunteers most likely win 11 games in the regular season since Missouri, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt are winnable games.
 
#192
#192
Carp said:
Right now, Clemson and the Pac 12 winner probably have the inside track on the final spot. Like it or not, the committee values winning your conference. Loser of the Michigan/OSU game is likely out of it completely.

Right now, I would say the final 4 will be UGA(puke), Michigan, TCU, and Pac 12 winner. We get in if Clemson loses and Pac 12 winner has 2 losses.
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Clemson is not getting in with a blowout loss to a bad team. Forget about that happening.
 
#193
#193
lifeisdeep said:
Clemson is not getting in with a blowout loss to a bad team. Forget about that happening.
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Well Notre Dame is ranked now. So it doesn't look as bad of a loss. And again, conference champions are important to the committee. I would be surprised if we get selected over any 1 loss Power 5 conference champ.
 
#194
#194
Carp said:
Right now, Clemson and the Pac 12 winner probably have the inside track on the final spot. Like it or not, the committee values winning your conference. Loser of the Michigan/OSU game is likely out of it completely.

Right now, I would say the final 4 will be UGA(puke), Michigan, TCU, and Pac 12 winner. We get in if Clemson loses and Pac 12 winner has 2 losses.
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Boo literally said the very opposite on Tuesday night.....

He literally said they are not looking at conferences, but which teams are best/better.....
 
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#195
#195
JMSqb11 said:
Boo literally said the very opposite on Tuesday night.....

He literally said they are not looking at conferences, but which teams are best/better.....
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That would go against what they've previously said and how they've voted in the past. I will believe it when I see it.

But even if you think Clemson has no chance, we'd still have to depend on the West Coast teams to lose. They are each ranked inside the top 10 currently.
 
#196
#196
JMSqb11 said:
Boo literally said the very opposite on Tuesday night.....

He literally said they are not looking at conferences, but which teams are best/better.....
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They've been repeating this as a mantra for at least a year now: "The committee is tasked with selecting the four best teams, regardless of conference." If I'm not mistaken, committee members themselves have said as much in the last year. Their actions bore this out last January when they put an SEC team that had not won its conference in over conference champions - and said non-conference-winner only went on to win the NC. So they would look like hypocrites if they suddenly changed course this year, and they would never again be able to argue that they choose the four best teams.
 
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#197
#197
Carp said:
That would go against what they've previously said and how they've voted in the past. I will believe it when I see it.

But even if you think Clemson has no chance, we'd still have to depend on the West Coast teams to lose. They are each ranked inside the top 10 currently.
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Were you asleep last January? Because they put a non-conference champ UGA in over multiple conference champs. And said non-conference champ went on to win it all. So no, they don't prioritize conference champs over everything else.
 
#198
#198
Carp said:
That would go against what they've previously said and how they've voted in the past. I will believe it when I see it.

But even if you think Clemson has no chance, we'd still have to depend on the West Coast teams to lose. They are each ranked inside the top 10 currently.
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You realize the committee is not made up of the same people year in and out? It is almost like they created the member term limits for a reason.....

If TCU's resumê wasn't good enough to be in front of 1 loss Bama last week, there is no reason it would be good enough to leap Tennessee based off the CFP Chairman's exact words.

Once again, Boo said they are looking at the best teams regardless of their conference.
 
#199
#199
TrapVol said:
Well, Hubbs and the other guys seem to agree with you. I just don’t see how the committee could ignore a bad loss to FSU and their head-to-head loss to us, despite it being early in the season. From my point of view, I don’t see how hard that is to get, but I guess that’s why I’m not on the committee.
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LSU only best them 1 point and FSU is top 25 with potential to beat Florida. If FSU beats Florida, they could wind up around top 19/20.
 
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