Are UNC and UVA the perfect schools for expansion?

#51
#51
DeerPark12 said:
Expansion came to a natural stopping place, and it's going to be stalled here for years to come. Everyone got rich on new TV deals, and they won't itch to make moves until those deals are set to expire and that's 8 years away.
Click to expand...

I agree to an extent. But TV deals can be reworked, and conference contracts are only good as long as the conference exists. If the Big 10, Big XII, and SEC all decide that they want to get to sixteen teams by raiding the ACC, then the ACC's grant of rights is worth nothing.
 
#52
#52
bamawriter said:
I agree to an extent. But TV deals can be reworked, and conference contracts are only good as long as the conference exists. If the Big 10, Big XII, and SEC all decide that they want to get to sixteen teams by raiding the ACC, then the ACC's grant of rights is worth nothing.
Click to expand...

And that's where you're wrong. As it was written, that grant of rights says that anything that remains of an ACC would retain TV rights to those departed schools, even if it was Duke and Wake Forest building around themselves. There were a lot of schools that wanted security, and they got it.

But that's beside the point. Without a conference network, which the Longhorn Network specifically forbids, the Big 12 isn't expanding, there's not TV money value in doing so. ESPN is likely going to get in-market rates for the SEC Network in North Carolina, which makes expansion there no more profitable. The animosity that the Big Ten created within the ACC makes it very unlikely that any of those schools would be receptive for overtures.

There is also plenty of debate whether Maryland will actually profit from their move. Much of the money they (and Rutgers) were "guaranteed" is based on projected revenue increases for the B10 Network by getting in-state rates and additional advertising dollars in Maryland and New York/New Jersey. So far, those increases haven't materialized. They won't materialize until BTN carriage agreements come up fore renewal, which will be years in some markets and with some companies. It will take years for Maryland to make up the money in TV revenue that they are losing to the exit fee and increased travel costs. Additional travel costs from the move to the Big 12 caused West Virginia to lose money last year, and they're projected to do so again.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#53
#53
DeerPark12 said:
And that's where you're wrong. As it was written, that grant of rights says that anything that remains of an ACC would retain TV rights to those departed schools, even if it was Duke and Wake Forest building around themselves. There were a lot of schools that wanted security, and they got it.
Click to expand...

I'm not a lawyer, so I won't claim to know the ins and outs of the contract. You may well be right.

But, what I've been told be folks that I trust to know these things is that the contract is rife with loopholes. It would take a mass exodus of at least 9 if not 10 of the 15 teams, but they could vote to disband the conference, thus nullifying any existing contracts between the conference and the individual members. I'm sure there would be lawsuits, but up to now all realignment-based legal actions have worked out in the favor of the departing schools. Maybe the issue with Maryland won't; that could certainly throw a wrench in things.

There is also plenty of debate whether Maryland will actually profit from their move. Much of the money they (and Rutgers) were "guaranteed" is based on projected revenue increases for the B10 Network by getting in-state rates and additional advertising dollars in Maryland and New York/New Jersey. So far, those increases haven't materialized. They won't materialize until BTN carriage agreements come up fore renewal, which will be years in some markets and with some companies. It will take years for Maryland to make up the money in TV revenue that they are losing to the exit fee and increased travel costs. Additional travel costs from the move to the Big 12 caused West Virginia to lose money last year, and they're projected to do so again.
Click to expand...

I agree with you here. I've thought all along that the decision to pick up Maryland and Rutgers would be disastrous for the Big 10. It will work out okay for Rutgers individually, but Maryland is going to take a bath, even if they get some legal relief from their ACC exit fee. And the Big 10 split the pie two more ways without adding enough to make the pie notably bigger. I think the existing membership is going to find out that they are making less money off their media rights with the addition of those two schools. If they really thought that Rutgers was going to deliver the NYC media market, then they are in for a very rude awakening.

As for WVU, they would have lost money had they been stuck in the AAC. The ACC and SEC both ignored their overtures, and the Big XII was their only option. While they are losing money, I imagine they are losing less than they would have had they not made the move.
 
#55
#55
Vol8188 said:
UNC and Va Tech, or WV. Any two of those 3.
Click to expand...

I feel we've been through this before...


No, it won't be west virginia. Nor would they be an option unless every school said no and the conference was in a position where it absolutely needed a school at that moment.
 
#59
#59
jlindsa4 said:
Well if it is about football then look at Duke's record last year. You can make the argument that the history isnt there but the same could be said about UNC. Plus Duke has a great coach.
Click to expand...

Football value's more about markets (and followings), not recent success, though.
 
#61
#61
SpiritOfNeyland said:
That's the problem. It shouldn't be JUST about football.

Why do you think the B1G fans are so all about getting UVA and UNC?

If the B1G is successful in attracting these two schools, it would be a complete lost opportunity.

This isn't just a football conference, and we need to be able to view it through the TOTAL picture.

Some of you may be just college football fans, but I am an alumnus from the University of Tennessee and I have a Masters from another SEC school. I want what is best for the Southeast, our football, our sports, our academics. It's a much broader picture than: "THEM THAR MOUNTAINEERS R GUD AT FOOTBAWRL! LET"S GIT THEM"
Click to expand...

The reality is it's about money, and football is the sport that brings in the most, so it and its markets get the most consideration/targeting in expansion talks.
 
#63
#63
sjt18 said:
UVA would be the one that would not. Their history and tie in is as long as the NC 4.

VT was the team the SEC should have gotten.
Click to expand...

VT didn't want any part of the conference from the get go of our expansion search though.


I don't think the SEC should have just continued to stand under their window with a boom box hoping they'd eventually change their minds.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#64
#64
VolFaninV said:
There is NO chance UVa leaves.

1) they cant go with out Va Tech

2)They will never lower themselves academically
Click to expand...

They actually can kind of go without Va Tech, but there's a some issue regarding such between them and the state (that and they weren't interested). As an analyst put it

Looking outside the league, Virginia Tech does make a great deal of sense for the SEC. But the Hokies used up a lot of political capital to gain an invite into the ACC. It’s hard to imagine them having the clout or the intestinal fortitude to jump leagues again anytime soon. Especially after Tech officials made it very clear this summer [2011/2012] that their school is better off in the ACC from a travel perspective and an academic perspective.
Click to expand...
 
#65
#65
bamawriter said:
1) Not true.

2) A significantly overrated issue when discussing these realignment talks.

I am of the belief that UVA would prefer the Big 10, and I think that preference will be reciprocated if (when) the times comes. But if the ACC starts to look shaky, UVA would't hesitate to join the SEC if that's offer is out there.
Click to expand...

Bingo, if the ACC fell apart and they got their pick of leagues, it would be the Big 10.
 
#67
#67
thebjd said:
NC State and V-Tech would be decent fits in my opinion.
Click to expand...

8 of NC State's 13 board are members put in place by UNC.

As for NC State — a school oft-mentioned because no one believes North Carolina and/or Duke would move to the SEC — there would be some serious political issues to work out as well. NCSU is a “constituent institution” of the University of North Carolina system. In other words, the schools have a connection. We’re not talking Texas and Texas A&M, here.

State has a 13-person board of trustees. One member is the president of the student government. Four trustees are appointed by the governor. The remaining eight NCSU trustees are elected by the UNC board of governors.

If State’s administration decided that their school would be better off in the SEC, it appears from afar that at least two of the eight trustees put in place by UNC’s board would have to okay the move. And that’s if all the other non-UNC-elected trustees favored the move. And that’s if a vote to switch conferences only requires a 7-6 majority.
Click to expand...


Good luck on that vote working out, especially since most schools require a 3/4 or so vote rather than just a simple majority.
 
#69
#69
bamawriter said:
I agree with you here. I've thought all along that the decision to pick up Maryland and Rutgers would be disastrous for the Big 10. It will work out okay for Rutgers individually, but Maryland is going to take a bath, even if they get some legal relief from their ACC exit fee. And the Big 10 split the pie two more ways without adding enough to make the pie notably bigger. I think the existing membership is going to find out that they are making less money off their media rights with the addition of those two schools. If they really thought that Rutgers was going to deliver the NYC media market, then they are in for a very rude awakening.

As for WVU, they would have lost money had they been stuck in the AAC. The ACC and SEC both ignored their overtures, and the Big XII was their only option. While they are losing money, I imagine they are losing less than they would have had they not made the move.
Click to expand...

The Big 10 made a provision to their current members that their TV revenues would not decrease by adding the two new schools, their portions would be funded by increases. ESPN and Fox upped their deals with the league by two shares, so MD and Rutgers will still get something, but it won't be an equal share until BTN revenues grow. The Big 10 is also paying Maryland's exit fee and withholding that money from yearly disbursements.

I think it's debatable if WVU would be in worse shape financially if they had stayed in the AAC, especially if they continue losing in football.

That said, Oliver Luck is no dummy, and I think showing a "loss" is a ploy to get more travel concessions from the B12. He's really, really good at what he does.
 
#70
#70
Rockytoptalker said:
I sort of like the idea... Plus it will look good adding those two when it comes to the academic side of things.


I've always wished we could get Fl. State to the SEC one day tho...
Click to expand...

After they said no the first time the conference asked and then jumped to the ACC (and went to the papers and such publicly announcing how much better of a move it was that they went the way they did over playing in the SEC)...the schools and presidents still aren't too keen on inviting them, even this much later.

(Plus the whole monetary/market thing in state, of which the gators already satisfy quite a bit)
 
#71
#71
Biopsyman said:
FSU and GA tech or Clemson
Click to expand...

All are states the conference is already in, GA Tech walked out and slammed the door (while giving a finger) when they left and still aren't interested, FSU turned the conference down before and the conference still doesn't seem to want them, and Clemson shot down rumors pretty quick and adamantly (so there doesn't seem to be terribly much interest there at this point)
 
#72
#72
BearBryant said:
Wow, I hope this expansion crap is over. It is already destroying the scheduling in football. Well in basketball too since Tennessee and Kentucky only played once this year what a shame!!!
Click to expand...

That's on the front office though. There were plenty of other reasonable setups they could have gone with that still worked and would have protected rivalries.


All they really cared about was making sure UF and UK played each other twice a year.
 
#74
#74
Thrasher865 said:
The SEC is an athletics conference. Member schools should absolutely have academics at the top of their priority lists. I have no problem with an athletic conference focusing first and foremost on athletics.
Click to expand...

Wait so your point is it's okay for academics to also be the issue they currently are, or it's not?
 
#75
#75
DeerPark12 said:
Expansion is dead for at least the next 8 years because of TV contracts. The ACC member schools have signed their TV rights over to the league in a deal that keeps those rights with the league even if they depart. No conference is taking a team that can't bring the rights to show their own games.

The Big 12 and Big Ten have a similar arrangement. The SEC is the only conference with no grant of rights or exit fee. Any SEC school is free to walk away at any time. Obviously, that isn't happening.

Putting all of that aside, expansion isn't about football as much as it is about TV markets. The SEC wouldn't add a Florida State, Miami or Georgia Tech because the league already owns a share of those markets. They'll be getting the in-market rate from cable companies for the SEC Network in those states.

Similarly, a team like West Virginia makes no sense because they bring less than 800,000 TV homes in their entire state. Missouri got the nod well ahead of them because MO has 10x that number, including the large media markets in St. Louis and Kansas City.

North Carolina would be a new state, but their legislature won't let NC and NCSU split up. Ditto for Virginia and VT. Don't need to take two schools to dominate a state for TV expansion.

Expansion came to a natural stopping place, and it's going to be stalled here for years to come. Everyone got rich on new TV deals, and they won't itch to make moves until those deals are set to expire and that's 8 years away.
Click to expand...

Bingo. Exactly.


I think NCSU's bigger issue might be their board setup making such a vote quite unlikely, but if there's also a state legislature issue, then that would impair such even further
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top