Atlanta Braves II

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#6,678
#6,678
Vercingetorix said:
On Thiursday, Fredi said this about Parrish:



The next day Parrish was out. I don't think it's a reach to assume that this is a straight-up case of Gonzalez being overruled.
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Freddie seems alot like Richt. Keep all your buddies on the staff regardless of their struggles. That never works, & I'm glad Wren overruled him.
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#6,679
#6,679
Escape Goat said:
This is one dumb organization if Lowe puts on a Brave cap next year.
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They may not end up having a choice if it becomes obvious that it's going to be too expensive to trade him. He'd be more useful eating innings in the Christian Martinez role and spot starting for $15 million than pitching for somebody else at $10 million.
 
#6,681
#6,681
Send him to the Mets, Nats or Marlins for some Jack Daniels and a bucket of chicken. At least then the Braves would be paying him to help them win games.
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#6,683
#6,683
We need a .300+ hitter. Sure we had the big bats, but we had no reliable hitter this year, and it costs us when we had runners on.
 
#6,684
#6,684
RockyTop411 said:
We need a .300+ hitter. Sure we had the big bats, but we had no reliable hitter this year, and it costs us when we had runners on.
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That was Martin Prado last year. Look how that turned out.

We need a .400 OBP guy. That's what we need.
 
#6,687
#6,687
Over on TalkingChop, they have been talking about aquiring a front-line type starter who is a major innings eater.

So, my question is:

Would you that? Would you be willing to give up that big time pitching prospects for a front line starter? You do have to think that none of your current pitchers will be innings eater for three years.

I would be willing to trade Vizcaino (his arm trouble) or Minor. I would only trade Teheran for King Felix. I wouldn't trade Delgado. He's going to be a superstar if healthy.
 
#6,688
#6,688
zjcvols said:
Over on TalkingChop, they have been talking about aquiring a front-line type starter who is a major innings eater.

So, my question is:

Would you that? Would you be willing to give up that big time pitching prospects for a front line starter? You do have to think that none of your current pitchers will be innings eater for three years.

I would be willing to trade Vizcaino (his arm trouble) or Minor. I would only trade Teheran for King Felix. I wouldn't trade Delgado. He's going to be a superstar if healthy.
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I would not do that. For one, too many big market/payroll teams will be looking for pitching this off-season making prices exorbitant. Secondly, this team has the pitching to win, as-is. What they need is more offense. Trying to win every game 2-1 or 1-0 is too taxing over the long haul.

Exhibit A: Your 2011 Atlanta Braves
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#6,689
#6,689
zjcvols said:
Over on TalkingChop, they have been talking about aquiring a front-line type starter who is a major innings eater.

So, my question is:

Would you that? Would you be willing to give up that big time pitching prospects for a front line starter? You do have to think that none of your current pitchers will be innings eater for three years.

I would be willing to trade Vizcaino (his arm trouble) or Minor. I would only trade Teheran for King Felix. I wouldn't trade Delgado. He's going to be a superstar if healthy.
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Hernandez has two years left under contract. It would crazy to trade multiple top-shelf starting pitching prospects for two years of any starter in the majors. Lowe is done, Hudson is old, Jurrjens and Hanson are both gimpy and both Boras clients. This rotation is going to have to be completely rebuilt over the next few years. Trading away several of the guys whom you're going to depend on for that for a guy who's only going to be here for two years would badly exacerbate that problem.

If you could only trade one of them for somebody like Hernandez, then yeah, you think about that. But not several. There are too many slots to fill in the next few years and we don't know which ones of them are going to work out yet.
 
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#6,690
#6,690
Vercingetorix said:
Hernandez has two years left under contract. It would crazy to trade multiple top-shelf starting pitching prospects for two years of any starter in the majors. Lowe is done, Hudson is old, Jurrjens and Hanson are both gimpy and both Boras clients. This rotation is going to have to be completely rebuilt over the next few years. Trading away several of the guys whom you're going to depend on for that for a guy who's only going to be here for two years would badly exacerbate that problem.

If you could only trade one of them for somebody like Hernandez, then yeah, you think about that. But not several. There are too many slots to fill in the next few years and we don't know which ones of them are going to work out yet.
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Felix Hernandez is under contract for three more years actually. 2012-2014. I think there's a team option for 2014.

I would easily trade two of big four, no matter what combo. Three? Eh, probably not.
 
#6,691
#6,691
Rotoworld has him as being a free agent in 2014. If he's really locked up for three more years, then that makes a difference. But I still don't know that it's the right move for this team -- even with the injuries, the offense is what kept them out of the postseason this year. I'd much rather trade for a big bat.

Plus in general, an expensive acquisition a of established, top-name pitcher is usually a bad gamble for teams of limited means. Pitchers get hurt; pitchers yo-yo up and down in their effectiveness. (He wasn't an expensive acquisition, but cf. how Tim Hudson was a real disappointment his first two years in Atlanta.) There have been a lot of awful contracts thrown at pitchers that looked like sure things at the time. The Braves wouldn't be throwing a huge contract at Hernandez, but trading away several of their top major-league-ready pitching prospects would be just as big a gamble.

I do in general believe in trading pitching prospects away for established ML talent; it's just that this time I'm sitting here looking at all the holes they're going to have to fill in the rotation in the next couple of years (everybody but Beachy, basically), and it makes me think that Wren should be really reluctant to part with any of Teheran/Minor/Delgado/Vizcaino unless he gets an offer that he really just can't refuse. Not all of them are going to be good.
 
#6,692
#6,692
Vercingetorix said:
Rotoworld has him as being a free agent in 2014. If he's really locked up for three more years, then that makes a difference. But I still don't know that it's the right move for this team -- even with the injuries, the offense is what kept them out of the postseason this year. I'd much rather trade for a big bat.

Plus in general, an expensive acquisition a of established, top-name pitcher is usually a bad gamble for teams of limited means. Pitchers get hurt; pitchers yo-yo up and down in their effectiveness. (He wasn't an expensive acquisition, but cf. how Tim Hudson was a real disappointment his first two years in Atlanta.) There have been a lot of awful contracts thrown at pitchers that looked like sure things at the time. The Braves wouldn't be throwing a huge contract at Hernandez, but trading away several of their top major-league-ready pitching prospects would be just as big a gamble.

I do in general believe in trading pitching prospects away for established ML talent; it's just that this time I'm sitting here looking at all the holes they're going to have to fill in the rotation in the next couple of years (everybody but Beachy, basically), and it makes me think that Wren should be really reluctant to part with any of Teheran/Minor/Delgado/Vizcaino unless he gets an offer that he really just can't refuse. Not all of them are going to be good.
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I think part of the problem is we don't have a real innings eater and while Fredi didn't help, our bullpen burned down towards the end of the year because of that..

I agree. But Hernandez is about as sure a pitcher as you'll find. All the scouts agree is mechanics/delivery puts very little stess on his arm. Now, I agree, it's a risk. But I don't think it's a bigger risk, than saying, you are going to rely on Delgado, Teheran, Vizcaino, Minor, and Beachy to all be good starting pitchers for 2014.

Also, I think if JJ has a good year, injury free (his injuries have been knee, not arm, which is really a plus), then you can probably sign him for $6-8M a year for 3-4 years. That will help with the depth.

And I would rather get a big bat. But if you are able to get a good deal, I just can't see how you say no to Hernandez. Also, I just don't know any big bats that are going to be on the market. I mean, the biggest bat I can think of realistically getting is B.J. Upton. I think he can bring a lot to the table, but he isn't a superstar by any stretch of the imagination.

I can't imagine we'll have any innings eater till 2014. Teheran is going to be watched carefully, and so is everyone else. I'm freaking out about Hanson's shoulder. And the thought of Felix in the NL would make everyone else crap their pants.

Let's say, just for ****s and giggles, we swing a Teheran/Vizcaino/Minor deal straight up for Hernandez

The rotation for 2012 )with everyone healthy)
Hernandez (locked up through 2014)
Hanson (locked up through 2015)
Jurrjens (locked up through 2013)
Hudson (locked up through 2013)
Beachy (locked up through 2016)

Then you got Delgado in Triple A. That's not too bad.
 
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#6,693
#6,693
So, right there we wouldn't have to sign a starting pitcher for two years. And can let Hudson go after 2012 and replace him with a minor leaguer.
 
#6,695
#6,695
zjcvols said:
But Hernandez is about as sure a pitcher as you'll find.
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So was Kevin Brown. And Mike Hampton. And Barry Zito. A few years ago we were arguing in this very thread about whether to empty the farm system for Jake Peavy; he looked like the very definition of a sure thing. Three years ago, Brandon Webb looked as great as Hernandez does now. Good thing nobody traded all their top prospects to acquire him, isn't it?

I just don't like the odds of a move like that. Out of Beachy, Minor, Vizcaino, Delgado, and Teheran, you're going to be lucky if three of them turn into quality major league starters. If you trade away two or three of them, you'd better be right on which ones you keep. And now you're doubling down on one arm staying healthy instead of a group of them. I don't know that the difference between Hernandez and what you'd expect to get from, say, Delgado in two years is worth all that.

Also, I think if JJ has a good year, injury free (his injuries have been knee, not arm, which is really a plus), then you can probably sign him for $6-8M a year for 3-4 years. That will help with the depth.
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He's a Boras client. He's almost certainly going to test the free agent market. The Braves have to treat Jurrjens like he's a bomb that explodes in Nov 2013.

Let's say, just for ****s and giggles, we swing a Teheran/Vizcaino/Minor deal straight up for Hernandez

The rotation for 2012 )with everyone healthy)
Hernandez (locked up through 2014)
Hanson (locked up through 2015)
Jurrjens (locked up through 2013)
Hudson (locked up through 2013)
Beachy (locked up through 2016)

Then you got Delgado in Triple A. That's not too bad.
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It's fine until Hanson ends up making the drive over to Birmingham to see the Grim Reaper and he misses all of 2012 and Jurrjens never really gets going again and spends chunks of the season on the DL. Now they're totally dependent on Delgado and there's no fifth starter.

Trading for Hernandez instead of a bat would be the same kind of mistake that the Falcons made this offseason. "Let's see, our defense was what killed us and we know it's got to get better.....but there aren't any elite defensive players available.....so instead of doing what we can to fix the real problem, let's double down and trade our whole draft to get the best OFFENSIVE player available. We'll fix our crappy defense by, uh, making our offense even better. Yeah."
 
#6,696
#6,696
The only certainty in pitching is there is no way to judge how many pitches a pitcher's arm can throw.

Giving a contract to a pitcher is the baseball equivalent of rush and roulette.
 
#6,697
#6,697
I'd look for the Braves to make a Delmon Young type signing this offseason. Young is far from an OBP machine, but he's definitely got talent. Bit of a headcase, but put up good numbers last year and has put up solid numbers in his time with the Tigers this year. Just turned 26 about three weeks ago, so he's still young. Having a solid post season as well. Set to be a free agent after this season.
 
#6,698
#6,698
Vercingetorix said:
So was Kevin Brown. And Mike Hampton. And Barry Zito. A few years ago we were arguing in this very thread about whether to empty the farm system for Jake Peavy; he looked like the very definition of a sure thing. Three years ago, Brandon Webb looked as great as Hernandez does now. Good thing nobody traded all their top prospects to acquire him, isn't it?

I just don't like the odds of a move like that. Out of Beachy, Minor, Vizcaino, Delgado, and Teheran, you're going to be lucky if three of them turn into quality major league starters. If you trade away two or three of them, you'd better be right on which ones you keep. And now you're doubling down on one arm staying healthy instead of a group of them. I don't know that the difference between Hernandez and what you'd expect to get from, say, Delgado in two years is worth all that.



He's a Boras client. He's almost certainly going to test the free agent market. The Braves have to treat Jurrjens like he's a bomb that explodes in Nov 2013.



It's fine until Hanson ends up making the drive over to Birmingham to see the Grim Reaper and he misses all of 2012 and Jurrjens never really gets going again and spends chunks of the season on the DL. Now they're totally dependent on Delgado and there's no fifth starter.

Trading for Hernandez instead of a bat would be the same kind of mistake that the Falcons made this offseason. "Let's see, our defense was what killed us and we know it's got to get better.....but there aren't any elite defensive players available.....so instead of doing what we can to fix the real problem, let's double down and trade our whole draft to get the best OFFENSIVE player available. We'll fix our crappy defense by, uh, making our offense even better. Yeah."
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I wouldn't make the trade if JJ/Hanson aren't healthy. Like I said, I'm hesitant to make it now, and probably would say no if I had to trade three of the four.

A bat is a bigger need I agree. The problem is...there are no big bats on the trade market it would like. Is B.J. Upton truly a big bat? Cause I don't think he is.
 
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