In regards to penalties, the NCAA wrote this in its notice of allegations to Alabama ...
"If the committee finds that major violations have occurred, then it will determine what penalties are appropriate as provided in Bylaws 19.5.2.1 or 19.5.2.3 of the online version of the 2007-08 NCAA Division I Manual. Inasmuch as your institution was previously found in violation of NCAA rules in an infractions report decided Feb. 1, 2002, your institution is subject to the penalties set forth in Bylaw 19.5.2.3."
Bylaw 19.5.2.1 defines "presumptive penalties" for major violations while Bylaw 19.5.2.3 deals with "repeat violators," where Alabama falls since the textbook investigation crossed into 2005, which was within the five-year window after the sanctions of 2002.
Those guidelines read as follows ...
19.5.2.1 Presumptive Penalty The presumptive penalty for a major violation, subject to exceptions authorized by the Committee on Infractions on the basis of specifically stated reasons, shall include all of the following:
(a) A two-year probationary period (including a periodic in-person monitoring system and written institutional reports);
(b) The reduction in the number of expense-paid recruiting visits to the institution in the involved sport for one recruiting year;
(c) A requirement that all coaching staff members in the sport be prohibited from engaging in any off campus recruiting activities for up to one recruiting year;
(d) A requirement that all institutional staff members determined by the committee knowingly to have engaged in or condoned a major violation be subject to;
--(1) Termination of employment;
--(2) Suspension without pay for at least one year;
--(3) Reassignment of duties within the institution to a position that does not include contact
with prospective or enrolled student-athletes or representatives of the institution's athletics interests for at least one year; or
--(4) Other disciplinary action approved by the committee.
(e) A reduction in the number of financial aid awards;
(f) Sanctions precluding postseason competition in the sport, particularly in those cases in which:
--(1) Involved individuals remain active in the program;
--(2) A significant competitive advantage results from the violation(s); or
--(3) The violation(s) reflect a lack of institutional control.
(g) Institutional recertification that the current athletics policies and practices conform to all requirements of NCAA regulations.
OK ...
***Throw out (d), because UA stated in its formal response to the allegations that "These violations did not result from any active or intentional conduct on the part of University officials, and no University officials consented to, or permitted, the wrongdoing."
***The (f) section regarding postseason play is highly unlikely since UA did not gain a "significant competitive advantage" and likely didn't demonstrate the dreaded "lack of institutional control." I'm not sure if (c) -- off campus recruiting by coaches -- will be used either, since these infractions didn't involve coaches or recruits.
***That leaves a two-year "probation" (a); reduction of recruiting visits for one year (b); a reduction of scholarships (e); and institutional recertification (g). These all could be applied, and UA is almost certainly going to now be placed on "probation" by the legal definition of the term.
Where things start getting truly frightening for UA is the "repeat violator" rule the NCAA referenced in the notice of allegations ...
19.5.2.3.2 Repeat-Violator Penalties In addition to the penalties identified for a major violation, the minimum penalty for a repeat violator, subject to exceptions authorized by the Committee on Infractions on the basis of specifically stated reasons, may include any or all of the following:
(a) The prohibition of some or all outside competition in the sport involved in the latest major violation for one or two sports seasons and the prohibition of all coaching staff members in that sport from involvement directly or indirectly in any coaching activities at the institution during that period;
(b) The elimination of all initial grants-in-aid and all recruiting activities in the sport involved in the latest major violation in question for a two-year period;
(c) The requirement that all institutional staff members serving on the Board of Directors, Leadership Council, Legislative Council or other cabinets or committees of the Association resign those positions, it being understood that all institutional representatives shall be ineligible to serve on any NCAA committee for a period of four years; and (Revised: 11/1/07 effective 8/1/08)
(d) The requirement that the institution relinquish its voting privilege in the Association for a four-year.
Now ...
***Surely, Alabama is not going to get the death penalty over a self-reported textbook matter that did not involve a competitive advantage and no cash changed hands. Pay attention to the wording of rule. "May involve," doesn't mean it is required. But clearly, the door is now open to legally make that move if the NCAA wants. It won't happen this time, but if this was possible, Alabama's room for compliance errors in the near future just got even smaller. By the way, the (c) rule above does not apply in Alabama's current case, as it was adopted in 2008.