BCS Top 10

It is just absolutely shocking that the fan of a team that has the best offense in a conference that plays very little defense wants margin of victory to be the primary way to rank a team. That statistic directly discriminates against a team that plays a power football style and runs the ball a lot like Alabama. The best way to factor in how a team looks is still the human polls. There will never be a formula that can tell you how great a team is. A computer is less biased by nature, but they are dead wrong about certain things that can only be judged by humans in something as subjective as college football. Margin of victory would mean nothing if one week a team beats Sam Bradford's Oklahoma by a point and then the next team beats his backup by 21 after an injury to Bradford. Which is more impressive again? When they teach a class at MIT that accounts for every single real world variable involved in college football then get back to me. The computers are used to help get the right teams to play for the title, not entirely decide which teams should play in complete disagreement with what is apparent from watching the teams.
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He gives the PAC-10 far too much credit for scheduling "tough" OOC games, neglecting the fact that their handicapped into doing so because the PAC-10 is/was limited to 10 teams. Furthermore, he doesn't put enough emphasis on the importance of losing those said games. Common sense tells you that scheduling "tough" OOC games is irrelevant if you're losing those games.

The formula (not "he") puts equal emphasis on all wins and losses. If a team plays a weaker schedule, they have to beat those teams by more points in order to stay ranked near or above a team that plays a more difficult schedule. That's how it should be.

Which is exactly why it's a joke. How can any system that doesn't account for wins and losses be taken serious?

By taking into account margin of victory. Maybe it would make more sense to you if you understood how it works. Winning a game gives you a positive credit. Losing a game gives you a negative number. Those numbers are averaged to create your final rating.

Winning and losing still matters. The difference is that his system accounts for the degree to which a team wins or loses. Wins-only systems do not.

His system doesn't accurately reflect the reality of what's going on in college football.(Cal #6, ASU #13, etc)

Where are you seeing those rankings? You keep mis-quoting them. I really don't think you understand what you're looking at.

So the dominance of a single team justifies completely overrating an entire conference?

If the other teams play competitively against that team and do well in their own OOC games, that is what you should expect.

No amount of rationalizations is going to make ranking an entire conference in the top 15 of SOS's any less of a joke.

Maybe not. However, statistics form a solid factual basis.

Reading comprehension Pete. I clearly said his ratings making a mockery of college football, not of mathematics.

Right. That's why you brought up that mathematicians want to boycott the BCS.

As I said, you fail to understand that the only thing that makes a ratings system meaningful is what comes out of it. Regardless of the basis behind it, the system itself is meaningless if the results have no credibility.

This is like Saddam Hussein saying that the only election that is meaningful is one that gives him 100% of the vote. Just the opposite, a rating system is completely meaningless if the author has an output in mind already that it must calculate. The point of a rating is to measure some criteria to compare. Not to satisfy biases and other pre-conceived notions about what the data should mean.

Hopefully, you pick a thing or two up from whichever university you end up going to. I sincerely wish you luck there. We'll need it. ;)

No one fully understands his system as it's partially kept from the public; And frankly, comprehension isn't necessary to know the results his mystery formula produce don't accurately reflect what we're seeing on saturdays.

This is partially true. The way it works seems to be a mystery to most. I wouldn't have understood it at all had I not learned about it during the process of building my own rating program.

You may be the only fan of college football(are you a fan?) who uses Sagarin ratings as a basis to fall back on.

Those who are familiar with the math (and I'm not the only one) tend to agree with Sagarin's predictor type of rating. As was explained in a recent article the flaws of the current BCS formulas are used as an example of what not to do in elementary college math courses.

Vegas also uses Sagarin's ratings to set starting lines.

I don't know. I usually hate getting into drawn out posting wars. It's exhausting.

Then take a clue. Be happy expressing your opinion as it is and stop getting into the business of trying to claim more knowledge than others. Don't start wars you can't finish.

It is just absolutely shocking that the fan of a team that has the best offense in a conference that plays very little defense wants margin of victory to be the primary way to rank a team. That statistic directly discriminates against a team that plays a power football style and runs the ball a lot like Alabama.

It does not discriminate against those types of teams because if those teams beat the high-scoring teams, their margin of victory score is averaged into their score.

If it does discriminate against Alabama, why does it rank them at #5, higher than both human polls and the BCS?

The best way to factor in how a team looks is still the human polls.

The human polls are a disaster. Coaches don't have time to watch the games they would need to in order to make informed decisions. I've personally emailed with voters from the Harris poll who had made unexpected selections, only to hear excuses along the lines of "I didn't have time to watch that game because my daughter graduated. I'll fix next week."

We simply don't need humans to make this call when the game of football already provides us with a concrete statistical goal: points. The programs and players deserve a rating system that is just as concrete as the rules of the game itself.

We don't vote on whether or not a team deserves 6 points each time they enter the end-zone.

There will never be a formula that can tell you how great a team is. A computer is less biased by nature, but they are dead wrong about certain things that can only be judged by humans in something as subjective as college football. Margin of victory would mean nothing if one week a team beats Sam Bradford's Oklahoma by a point and then the next team beats his backup by 21 after an injury to Bradford.

This is a good example of when humans fail. It does damage a teams ability when they lose key players. But, their rating at the end of the season should still reflect a proportional average between what they did before and after that player was lost. Otherwise, you get a bunch of people trying to guess at how good a replacement player is that may never have played a college game in their life.
 
The formula (not "he") puts equal emphasis on all wins and losses. If a team plays a weaker schedule, they have to beat those teams by more points in order to stay ranked near or above a team that plays a more difficult schedule. That's how it should be.



By taking into account margin of victory. Maybe it would make more sense to you if you understood how it works. Winning a game gives you a positive credit. Losing a game gives you a negative number. Those numbers are averaged to create your final rating.

Winning and losing still matters. The difference is that his system accounts for the degree to which a team wins or loses. Wins-only systems do not.



Where are you seeing those rankings? You keep mis-quoting them. I really don't think you understand what you're looking at.



If the other teams play competitively against that team and do well in their own OOC games, that is what you should expect.



Maybe not. However, statistics form a solid factual basis.



Right. That's why you brought up that mathematicians want to boycott the BCS.



This is like Saddam Hussein saying that the only election that is meaningful is one that gives him 100% of the vote. Just the opposite, a rating system is completely meaningless if the author has an output in mind already that it must calculate. The point of a rating is to measure some criteria to compare. Not to satisfy biases and other pre-conceived notions about what the data should mean.

Hopefully, you pick a thing or two up from whichever university you end up going to. I sincerely wish you luck there. We'll need it. ;)



This is partially true. The way it works seems to be a mystery to most. I wouldn't have understood it at all had I not learned about it during the process of building my own rating program.



Those who are familiar with the math (and I'm not the only one) tend to agree with Sagarin's predictor type of rating. As was explained in a recent article the flaws of the current BCS formulas are used as an example of what not to do in elementary college math courses.

Vegas also uses Sagarin's ratings to set starting lines.



Then take a clue. Be happy expressing your opinion as it is and stop getting into the business of trying to claim more knowledge than others. Don't start wars you can't finish.



It does not discriminate against those types of teams because if those teams beat the high-scoring teams, their margin of victory score is averaged into their score.

If it does discriminate against Alabama, why does it rank them at #5, higher than both human polls and the BCS?



The human polls are a disaster. Coaches don't have time to watch the games they would need to in order to make informed decisions. I've personally emailed with voters from the Harris poll who had made unexpected selections, only to hear excuses along the lines of "I didn't have time to watch that game because my daughter graduated. I'll fix next week."

We simply don't need humans to make this call when the game of football already provides us with a concrete statistical goal: points. The programs and players deserve a rating system that is just as concrete as the rules of the game itself.

We don't vote on whether or not a team deserves 6 points each time they enter the end-zone.



This is a good example of when humans fail. It does damage a teams ability when they lose key players. But, their rating at the end of the season should still reflect a proportional average between what they did before and after that player was lost. Otherwise, you get a bunch of people trying to guess at how good a replacement player is that may never have played a college game in their life.

At this point, continuing on would be pointless. You can live by the computers. I'll live by reality(e.g. 2002).

You can now commence in beating your chest. No, I don't need an explanation, nor should you waste your efforts on a witty retort. Just beat, and keep beating until your hearts content.

Oh, I do have a quick question though. Why did Illinois finish ahead of Duke in the all time Basketball schools list despite having less overall wins, a lower winning percentage, sent a smaller number of players to the NBA, has less tournament births, and less(none actually) National championships? I figured someone who fully understands Sagarins ratings(both hiden or otherwise. If there is an otherwise) would be able to shed light on the outcome of his list.

Also, why are mathematicians against BCS rankings if the math and outcomes are as flawless as you're advocating?
 
Looks like the Ducks won't have to worry about the #1 bug... Looks like Brad Edwards projects Auburn to be BCS #1 tomorrow.

lulz
 
Oh, I do have a quick question though. Why did Illinois finish ahead of Duke in the all time Basketball schools list despite having less overall wins, a lower winning percentage, sent a smaller number of players to the NBA, has less tournament births, and less(none actually) National championships? I figured someone who fully understands Sagarins ratings(both hiden or otherwise. If there is an otherwise) would be able to shed light on the outcome of his list.

I'm not sure about the specifics of that. To be honest, I don't follow basketball very closely. College football is it for me.

Also, why are mathematicians against BCS rankings if the math and outcomes are as flawless as you're advocating?

I'm also against the BCS rankings and the math that they use for the same reason most mathematicians are. Because it doesn't factor in margin of victory.

I'm advocating that margin of victory ratings, like the one that Sagarin releases as the "Predictor" column each week, is the best way to rate football performance. The mathematicians are on my side.

If Oregon isn't #1 this week, I will lol.

Oregon could beat a ranked team by 20 every week and I would still wait to see the ranking to believe it. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they aren't #1 this week.
 
The updated Sagarin ratings are already out: USATODAY.com

Here's the Predictor column, just for fun. :)

1. Oregon
2. Alabama
3. TCU
4. Boise State
5. Missouri
6. Ohio State
7. Stanford
8. California
9. Arizona
10. Nebraska
 
this isn't about the BCS polls but you know what is sad...on the week that Oregon does not play..they move into the #1 spot in the Ap and coaches poll...Boise does not play till Tuesday...100 bucks says they drop in the rankings.
how can one team move up when they don't play..and one team moves down when they don't play? and don't give me the SOS thing..SOS doesn't matter when you don't play.

but yeah...I see the BCS rankings this week as Auburn 1, Oregon 2, Boise St. 3, TCU 4. Bama 5 AND Utah 6.
3 non BCS schools in the top 10.
 
ether way...the football god are smiting the BCS.
do you know how close it is this year for 3 non BCS schools to make it?
I'd be happy for TCU or Utah to make it.
and knowing the BCS Boise will have to play the winner of the TCU/Utah game in a BCS bowl.
BUT if it is done right and the Ducks plays Auburn in the NC game...Boise SHOULD go to the Rose bowl and TCU/Utah to the Sugar Bowl.
 
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Personally, I'm perfectly OK with Auburn being #1. Disrespect is about as good a motivator as you can possibly find for a bunch of D1 Football Players facing the toughest game remaining on their schedule.
 
knowing the BCS Boise will have to play the winner of the TCU/Utah game in a BCS bowl.

Nothing's guaranteed with the BCS but probably not going to happen. This year, the Rose Bowl is contractually obligated to take a Non-AQ Team if the winner of the Big-10 or Pac-10 makes it to the BCS Title Game, which seems to be a real possibility.
 
Conference tie in always goes to an at large if that team plays for the national title.
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I'm honestly amazed that Oregon's going to get snubbed for 2 weeks in a row.

I wanted Oregon to be #1 in the BCS when the Men of Troy beat them, lulz.
 
I'm honestly amazed that Oregon's going to get snubbed for 2 weeks in a row.

I wanted Oregon to be #1 in the BCS when the Men of Troy beat them, lulz.

Well there ya go. The Oregon Ducks can literally do the impossible...

Oregon is making Tennessee fans root for Lane Kiffin. :p
 
Well there ya go. The Oregon Ducks can literally do the impossible...

Oregon is making Tennessee fans root for Lane Kiffin. :p

I'm wearing my SC fan cap right now.

I'm one of the few who's actually liked Kiffin all throughout on here.
 
Looking around on Facebook and duck fans are already about to start lighting things on fire as they're figuring out they're getting snubbed again.

Auburn has beat three teams that are probably all better than Stanford.

Nicknx, Usc's defense is going to get flattened on Saturday. Barkley is going to need a completion rate in the neighborhood of 80%, over 400 yards and 4 or 5 TDs with no picks in order to stay in it.
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My Facebook looks the same with people seething with the BCS. I will never understand why people get so angry over 2 vs. 1 in the BCS Rankings. I have the same view on it as a buddy of mine....

"The only difference between 2 and 1 is what color combination we wear in Glendale."

I become even more nonchalant when we're ranked #1 in all the human polls.
 
Barkley will get numbers but the trogans main hope is to have zero turnovers and milk the hell out of te clock. Unfortunately for them, while the ducks defense lacks in raw talent, I think they're still número uno in fbs in turnover margin.
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Duck fans shouldn't be upset about Auburn being #1. They've played a much tougher schedule.

Not that I disagree it's just I think my fellow Ducks fans are annoyed with being #2 for 2 consecutive weeks and in both weeks the #1 lost and somehow... we remain #2. I get the SOS argument but let's face it...

There's a reason why Auburn won't be #1 in a single poll conducted exclusively by humans.
 

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