BCS Top 10

#277
#277
tvolsfan said:
I was never saying their schedule was horrible, but it's not as impressive as it would be in another year. Beating Alabama will help a lot, but with the East being at an all time worst, and LSU being coached by Les Miles, it's harder to be as impressed with what Auburn has done.
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We're speaking on Auburns schedule in comparison to Oregons. At this point, it's no contest. It doesn't much matter how "weak" the SEC supposedly is, regardless, Auburns schedule has been significantly more difficult than Oregon's.
 
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#278
#278
tvolsfan said:
They didn't just look worse, they look lucky and defenseless. I agree that Oregon hasn't proved that much, and neither team looks like they would be capable of competing for a national title in most years.
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That is a matter of opinion. They have played a schedule in the top 10 at least and the last time I checked Oregon's schedule strength was in the 112th and worse than Boise State's. No wonder they have fans whining for margin of victory to be the primary basis for a poll.

Rivals.com College Football - Huguenin: Auburn jumps, Boise loses ground

Oregon's strength of schedule should improve, but they haven't been tested by a real quality opponent unless you think Stanford is the #2 team in the country. Auburn deserves their ranking. Cam Newton's play is far from luck. The only luck involved is that Chizik got him to come there and make him look way better than he is.
 
#279
#279
CardassianVol said:
Oregon's strength of schedule should improve, but they haven't been tested by a real quality opponent unless you think Stanford is the #2 team in the country.
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Who, exactly, is arguing Stanford is the #2 team in the country?

They aren't the #2 team in the country but they are most definitely a quality team. They are ranked 13th and are 6-1, and their 1 was a 20+ blowout loss to..... Surprise... Oregon.

Stanford will probably run the table and go to a BCS game.
 
#280
#280
Nightowl said:
Who, exactly, is arguing Stanford is the #2 team in the country?

They aren't the #2 team in the country but they are most definitely a quality team. They are ranked 13th and are 6-1, and their 1 was a 20+ blowout loss to..... Surprise... Oregon.

Stanford will probably run the table and go to a BCS game.
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Stanford is still a good win. I was more referring to this next part when I posted that comment. Who belives they are #2 in the country? Ask wheaton....


I think that the rankings should be 100% objective, based on points. So, my ranking follows Sagarin's points only column:

#1 Oregon
#2 Stanford
#3 TCU
#4 Boise State
#5 Alabama
#6 Missouri
#7 Oklahoma
#8 South Carolina
#9 Florida State
#10 Nebraska

These rankings may be shocking to some. But, they are all supported by how teams performed on the field against opponents of various strengths. For example, Auburn needed over-time to beat 3-3 Clemson and LSU only beat 2-4 UT by 2 points, bringing their ratings down. At the same time, teams that have one or even two losses are not necessarily worse (on average) than undefeated teams. For example, South Carolina who gained a lot of merit by beating Alabama by 14 (who had been blowing everyone out).

The only thing I would change is to add a cap on points counted. That might make some adjustments for teams with lots of cupcakes (including Oregon this year). But, I don't think it applies as much for this example because the purpose of the cap would be to discourage running up scores. Since doing that doesn't count and coaches know that, it shouldn't have been a factor this year. Although, some personalities are probably more inclined to run up scores than others and that could skew the results some.
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#282
#282
emainvol said:
You kidding? Easiest over bet in the history of college football.
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I'm not so sure. It seems like those "two unstoppable offense" bowl games where the teams have a month to prepare for each other always seem to be surprisingly defensive in nature when the teams have so long to get the Defenses ready.

The more I think about it, the more I think Oregon/Auburn wouldn't be the point-fest everybody thinks it would be. It'd be a good game, though.
 
#283
#283
CardassianVol said:
Also, big numbers impress humans and pitiful computer rankings systems. Thankfully, that particular bias was taken out of the BCS.
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*gasp*

Who would have thought that scoring points and preventing opponents from scoring points would ever be seen as a measures of good football?! The insanity!

Here are results from the same formula. But, one with margin of victory counted and the other without. You tell me which one makes more sense.

With margin of victory:

1. Oregon
2. Alabama
3. TCU
4. Boise State
5. Missouri
6. Ohio State
7. Stanford
8. California
9. Arizona
10. Nebraska

Without margin of victory, BCS computer:

1. Missouri
2. Michigan State
3. Auburn
4. Wisconsin
5. Oklahoma
6. Oregon
7. TCU
8. LSU
9. Ohio State
10. Stanford

So, basically, you think that the current NC match-up makes more sense as Missouri vs. Michigan State over Oregon vs. Alabama?

Bumi said:
We're speaking on Auburns schedule in comparison to Oregons. At this point, it's no contest. I doesn't much matter how "weak" the SEC supposedly is, regardless, Auburns schedule has been significantly more difficult than Oregon's.
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Auburn's sos definitely is better than Oregon's at this point in the schedule. However, that is somewhat offset by Auburn only playing 4 road games this year. How did that happen? Oregon would have a huge advantage playing 2/3 of their games at Autzen.

CardassianVol said:
That is a matter of opinion. They have played a schedule in the top 10 at least and the last time I checked Oregon's schedule strength was in the 112th and worse than Boise State's. No wonder they have fans whining for margin of victory to be the primary basis for a poll.
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Oregon's sos: 59
Boise State's sos: 69

If anyone is whining, please point it out. If the season ended today, Oregon is in the NC. Nothing to complain about, imo.

I've been calling for a margin of victory rating for several seasons. Mathematicians have been making fun of the flawed BCS method since the day they enforced the no margin of victory rule.

CardassianVol said:
Oregon's strength of schedule should improve, but they haven't been tested by a real quality opponent unless you think Stanford is the #2 team in the country. Auburn deserves their ranking. Cam Newton's play is far from luck. The only luck involved is that Chizik got him to come there and make him look way better than he is.
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Stanford is ranked in the top 15 by margin of victory ratings, non margin of victory ratings and humans. I'd say that makes them a quality opponent by any measure you want to choose.

They were rated #2 last week by Sagarin's Predictor rating. However, the season didn't end last week. They're now at #7.

Note that this rating has #7 all the way down to #17 as being separated only by a few points of strength. He has a lot of teams grouped together with near even strength. He would put Stanford as only a 3 point favorite over Auburn at a neutral field.

CardassianVol said:
Stanford is still a good win. I was more referring to this next part when I posted that comment. Who belives they are #2 in the country? Ask wheaton....
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They had accomplished the second most at that point in the season. Things have changed since.

That said, I'm not impressed with Auburn's win over LSU. While LSU has a good win-loss record, they eeked out wins over opponents that have proven to not be very good this season. There are several teams that I believe would demolish LSU, Oregon and Stanford being two of them.
 
#286
#286
wow... I knew Auburn would pass BSU, but I didn't think they would jump Oregon.

Doesn't really matter though. 1 AND 2 of the BCS rankings play for the title.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/bcs

BCS Standings
RK TEAM RECORD
1 Auburn 8-0
2 Oregon 7-0
3 Boise State 6-0
4 TCU 8-0
5 Michigan State 8-0
6 Missouri 7-0
7 Alabama 7-1
8 Utah 7-0
9 Oklahoma 6-1
10 Wisconsin 7-1
11 Ohio State 7-1
12 LSU 7-1
13 Stanford 6-1
14 Nebraska 6-1
15 Arizona 6-1
16 Florida State 6-1
17 Oklahoma State 6-1
18 Iowa 5-2
19 Arkansas 5-2
20 South Carolina 5-2
21 Mississippi State 6-2
22 Miami (FL) 5-2
23 Virginia Tech 6-2
24 Nevada 6-1
25 Baylor 6-2
 
#289
#289
Nightowl said:
I'm not so sure. It seems like those "two unstoppable offense" bowl games where the teams have a month to prepare for each other always seem to be surprisingly defensive in nature when the teams have so long to get the Defenses ready.

The more I think about it, the more I think Oregon/Auburn wouldn't be the point-fest everybody thinks it would be. It'd be a good game, though.
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point fest. Both defenses are atrocious. Alabama will house Auburn, so it's still not worth discussing.
 
#292
#292
wheaton4prez said:
*gasp*

Who would have thought that scoring points and preventing opponents from scoring points would ever be seen as a measures of good football?! The insanity!

Here are results from the same formula. But, one with margin of victory counted and the other without. You tell me which one makes more sense.

With margin of victory:

1. Oregon
2. Alabama
3. TCU
4. Boise State
5. Missouri
6. Ohio State
7. Stanford
8. California
9. Arizona
10. Nebraska

Without margin of victory, BCS computer:

1. Missouri
2. Michigan State
3. Auburn
4. Wisconsin
5. Oklahoma
6. Oregon
7. TCU
8. LSU
9. Ohio State
10. Stanford

So, basically, you think that the current NC match-up makes more sense as Missouri vs. Michigan State over Oregon vs. Alabama?
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Neither. Cal being in the top 10 is a joke and a top 10 without Auburn and Michigan State shouldn't exist. Then you have Stanford and Arizona(I wont mention Cal) above Wisconsin, Auburn, Michigan State, etc. Both are a joke.

Auburn's sos definitely is better than Oregon's at this point in the schedule. However, that is somewhat offset by Auburn only playing 4 road games this year. How did that happen? Oregon would have a huge advantage playing 2/3 of their games at Autzen
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Never mind.

Oregon's sos: 59
Boise State's sos: 69

If anyone is whining, please point it out. If the season ended today, Oregon is in the NC. Nothing to complain about, imo.

I've been calling for a margin of victory rating for several seasons. Mathematicians have been making fun of the flawed BCS method since the day they enforced the no margin of victory rule.
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The BCS was flawed prior to 02, when they edited the formula to exclude margin of victory. To my knowledge, there isn't a single mathematician who's claimed they'd support the BCS if margin of victory were included in the formula. If so, please provide some evidence supporting that notion.

Stanford is ranked in the top 15 by margin of victory ratings, non margin of victory ratings and humans. I'd say that makes them a quality opponent by any measure you want to choose.

They were rated #2 last week by Sagarin's Predictor rating. However, the season didn't end last week. They're now at #7.

Note that this rating has #7 all the way down to #17 as being separated only by a few points of strength. He has a lot of teams grouped together with near even strength. He would put Stanford as only a 3 point favorite over Auburn at a neutral field.
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Which is exactly why his system is a joke.


They had accomplished the second most at that point in the season. Things have changed since.

That said, I'm not impressed with Auburn's win over LSU. While LSU has a good win-loss record, they eeked out wins over opponents that have proven to not be very good this season. There are several teams that I believe would demolish LSU, Oregon and Stanford being two of them.
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Based off what? Stanford has beaten one team above .500, a mediocre USC squad. They were just played close by one of the worst programs in FBS football. Washington State. They've played one ranked team, and were blown out. What exactly have they done that suggest they'd "demolish" LSU; Who's only loss was to the #1 team in the nation, by a TD, and who's beaten 4 teams above .500?

And please, spare me the Sagarin ratings.
 
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#295
#295
droski said:
oregon has yet to have played a even mediocre team on the road and stanford is just a good matchup for them offensively. the margin of victory indicates they are an elite team, but it certainly would not be completely shocking to find out they are a fraud.
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fraud with really good timing. Defense is a sham, conference is weak and their marquee OOC win was against a bottom 4 SEC squad. Serendipity might work for them.
 
#296
#296
droski said:
their oline is among the best in the country. their WRs wouldn't be starting on many bcs teams. TEs are good. their defense is slow and not very good.
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It's easy for an oline to look good playing against sub par talent. See Oregon is 09. Heralded offensive line that gets demolished in the Rose Bowl against a defensive with premier FBS talent.

As you said, their defense is a joke, and their WR's would be riding the pine for most any elite program.
 
#297
#297
droski said:
their oline is among the best in the country. their WRs wouldn't be starting on many bcs teams. TEs are good. their defense is slow and not very good.
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I'll grant you some of that. The offense is certainly miles better than the defense, but the way they laid down against Oregon's overmatched D in the second half was pitiful.
 
#298
#298
Bumi said:
Oregon is a less talented version of the 08 Sooners. They're clearly the best team in the Pac-10, which has looked progressively worse as the season drags on, but I don't know how they'd match up against elite teams from other conferences. I think they'd beat BSU and TCU. Maybe Michigan State. I'm not so sure about Auburn(they'd score though) and Alabama.
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I think they drill Auburn, though Auburn's defense is better than their own. I think Alabama is a kryptonite matchup for them. Just couldn't be worse for their gimmick.

The team that forces throwing and controls the ball is just going to have a field day.
 
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