Brando hints at 4 win season on his show

#79
#79
Brando has to write stuff to stir the pot and get his name repeated. That is his job. He may think it will take time for Butch to adjust to the SEC. His staff has a track record for developing players so I have confidence that they will get more out of the current roster than some believe. Many variables will decide our final win total. I hope 14!!

GO VOLS!!
 
#83
#83
Brando would be right ...if Dooley were still coaching. We got Butch and he ain't lettin that happen! 6 to 7 win season mark it!
 
#85
#85
he was referring to the amount of times he got laid in college vs. the amount of times he blacked out after funneling kerosene
 
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#86
#86
Aesius said:
If we only win 4 games, then Butch isn't the guy.
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:lolabove: Unreal you people are. :eek:lol: We lose our top three playmakers from last year. Bray, Patterson, and Hunter. I think we can win 6 games. But Butch is the right guy for this job. We are going to end up with a top 5 recruiting class (Number 1 right now) and you say that. :no:
 
#87
#87
it is possible. CBJ took Cincy to 4-8 after a 12-1 season, in the weak BEC. now he is in the big league with a 5-7 team that lost their top playmakers, and installing both new offensive and new defensive systems.

i am hoping for .500, but 4-8 looks a lot more likely than 8-4.
 
#89
#89
tm3 said:
it is possible. CBJ took Cincy to 4-8 after a 12-1 season, in the weak BEC. now he is in the big league with a 5-7 team that lost their top playmakers, and installing both new offensive and new defensive systems.

i am hoping for .500, but 4-8 looks a lot more likely than 8-4.
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Dooley didn't lose 8 games, and if the worst coach in history didn't lose 8 games, I'd be surprised if a guy who seems like he's actually in touch with the game of football manages it.
 
#90
#90
rockytop9808 said:
Dooley didn't lose 8 games, and if the worst coach in history didn't lose 8 games, I'd be surprised if a guy who seems like he's actually in touch with the game of football manages it.
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But Dooley did lose 7 games with considerably more talent. Basically every talented non O-Line player from last years team is gone. Add to that the unfortunate fact that last years pathetic defense returns almost in full, and this team is going to struggle. I don't think they'll struggle to the tune of 8 losses, but I'd say 8 losses is FAAAAR more likely than 8 wins.
 
#91
#91
We've got the same RBs, same OL, same defense, a QB that has played in big SEC games before (I think Worley starts) and WR's that have gotten playing time. This team is gonna be fine. I'm just not seeing a 4 win season if CBJ is the one to take us back to the top.
 
#92
#92
lonelawyer said:
Let's do some evaluation:


8/31 Austin Peay- Win.

9/7 W. Kentucky- Probable win. However, this team is coming off a bowl game and Bobby Petrino is a much better coach than he is a motorcycle rider.

9/14 @Oregon- A win here would be a definite sign of the coming apocalypse. Loss.

9/21 @Florida- Still not sold on Muschamp, but I believe Florida's team speed and home field advantage will be the difference. Loss.

9/28 S. Alabama- Win.

10/5 Georgia- I think this may be Butch's best chance for a first season upset. Tiptoeing out on a limb and saying Win.

10/19 S. Carolina- Every time I want to pick Tennessee for this game I see visions of Jadeveon Clowney removing that Michigan back's head and helmet with surgical precision. Loss.

10/26 @Alabama- A win here would require that the Tide be decimated by zombies the night before the game. Loss.

11/2 @Missouri- Win.

11/9 Auburn- Pick em.

11/23 Vanderbilt- Pick em.

11/30 @Kentucky- Win.

I'm at 6-4 with two pick em games.

Brando must have us losing to Western Kentucky and not winning any pick em or upset games. If last year was the result of a lack of talent. He may be right. If last year was the result of so so talent combined with horrendous coaching we have to win at least five.

Would love to see other views.
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Okay, a brief run down on a few truisms:

  1. Recruiting is key: 60-70% of the time talent predicts the outcome of any series of games when using a four-year trailing recruiting average and rivals figures
    1a)This number increases to about 90% accurate when predicting BCS national championship games
  2. Coaching accounts for the remainder: Dooley/Chizik/Kiff were under-achievers to the tune of 3-4 games a season; Petrino, Kelly, Spurrier and Jones are historic over-achievers by the same margin

Vanderbilt's season last year can be accounted for by a few observations. First, Franklin does get more out of his talent than one would expect. Second, Franklin beat three teams that were historically so bad that they fired their coaches (NCSU, UT and Auburn). Two of those teams (UT and Auburn) were at historical lows in the program but have a great deal of latent talent.

Using the talent paradigms stated above: The Vanderbilt game next year is not a toss-up, it is most likely a W for UT.

The Auburn game next year is not a toss-up, it is most likely a L for UT.

Bottom line, if Jones only coaches to his talent level (this is what he did his first year at Cincy when he only won 4 games) then UT goes 7-5.

Here is a simple list accounting for attrition and latent talent of all teams in the SEC east. These are similar numbers to the ones used to accurately predict the outcome of the majority of games, so there is no need to go further and say that stars don't matter or that some recruits tend to progress faster than others. Those statements are exceptions to the general rule..

................5*......4*.....3*...2*.....avg/85
Georgia......3.......30.....29....4.......2.7
Florida.......7.......33.....18....2.......2.65
Tennessee..0......25.....31.....6......2.41
SCAR.........1......17.....35.....6......2.24
Missouri.....1.......7......47.....6......2.19
Kentucky....0......3.......46....17.....2.17
Vanderbilt...0.......4......43....14.....2.04

This is a rough list of the latent talent on all of the rosters in the SEC east using the schools published spring roster. This shows that Tennessee, even when accounting for attrition, has the third most talent laden roster.

I think there is a better foundation than most would believe.
 
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#93
#93
tm3 said:
it is possible. CBJ took Cincy to 4-8 after a 12-1 season, in the weak BEC. now he is in the big league with a 5-7 team that lost their top playmakers, and installing both new offensive and new defensive systems.

i am hoping for .500, but 4-8 looks a lot more likely than 8-4.
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A few weeks ago I posted this in another thread, but it actually fits here:

That 4-8 season at Cincy is exactly what his talent predicted he should have won. Every other year, he wins more games than his talent would predict.

Do not think that his 4 win season at Cincy is somehow an under-performance. It is, in fact, status-quo.

To summarize: talent averages can be used to predict the outcome of football games by simply averaging four years of recruiting numbers, doing that for each team, and creating an ordered list. If you see a matchup between two teams and pick the team with the higher average to win, you will be correct 60-70% of the time when looking at seasonal outcomes.

If you do that for Jones tenure at Cincy, here is what you will discover:

2010: Talent Predicted wins: 4; Actual Wins: 4
2011: Talent Predicted wins: 6; Actual Wins: 10
2012: Talent Predicted wins: 7; Actual Wins: 9 (remember he wasn't coaching for the 10th win against Duke in the bowl game).

So, Jones averages winning 2 games a season more than his predictions overall at Cincy. If you discount the first year where he was status quo, that number jumps to an average of +3 games a year during his final two seasons.

Also it is interesting to note how Jones improved the recruiting during his tenure. If you look at the four year talent averages beginning in 2010 (largely Kelly's recruits) Cincy averaged 68.75, in 2011 Cincy averaged 58.75 (Jones raised the talent average ten spots in one year), then in 2012 Cincy again increased to a four year trailing average of 54.5.

If Jones can only match his output of the 2010 season and win only as many games as his talent would predict in 2013, UT will go 7-5.

EDIT: Let me take it a step further.

In 2010 Jones beat both Louisville and Rutgers when he should have lost, and lost to Syracuse and Uconn, who he should have beaten. The end result is still a talent predicted 4 win season.

In 2011 Jones beat NCSU, Louisville, South Florida, and Pittsburgh who all had better talent. He did not lose to any team that he should have beaten. The end result is a talent plus 4 win season.

In 2012 Jones beat Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech and South Florida who had better talent but lost to Toledo who didn't. The end result is a talent plus 2 win season.

The key to remember is that as Jones 4 year trailing recruiting average gets better, his ability to have seasons with huge talent plus games goes down. In other words, if you recruit like Alabama, Saban will never be a talent +X games coach because he out recruits everyone.
 
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#94
#94
daj2576 said:
To summarize: talent averages can be used to predict the outcome of football games by simply averaging four years of recruiting numbers, doing that for each team, and creating an ordered list.

Also it is interesting to note how Jones improved the recruiting during his tenure. If you look at the four year talent averages beginning in 2010 (largely Kelly's recruits) Cincy averaged 68.75, in 2011 Cincy averaged 58.75 (Jones raised the talent average ten spots in one year), then in 2012 Cincy again increased to a four year trailing average of 54.5.
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as i have noted in other threads, daj, i really enjoy your analyses as i find them very interesting.

however, there are a lot of different ways to slice and dice this stuff.

re recruiting at cincy, yes, CBJ did improve on kelly's average going from 68 to 58. i read elsewhere that when kelly arrived the cincy average was in the low 100's, so the largest jump in recruit quality was made by kelly with 40 spots in the ranking being more statistically significant than 10.

also, i believe that your analyses showed that the talent level at UT is virtually even with the talent level at Orgonia making the game an essential toss-up. this morning i saw an early line on the game that has Orgonia listed as a 25 point favorite over UT -- only bama, at 27 points, is given a larger spread. thus either you are on to something unique here and we all need to run to our bookies, or other analysts are seeing something that is not quantified by the talent analysis.

it will certainly be interesting to watch it all play out.
 
#95
#95
tm3 said:
as i have noted in other threads, daj, i really enjoy your analyses as i find them very interesting.

however, there are a lot of different ways to slice and dice this stuff.

re recruiting at cincy, yes, CBJ did improve on kelly's average going from 68 to 58. i read elsewhere that when kelly arrived the cincy average was in the low 100's, so the largest jump in recruit quality was made by kelly with 40 spots in the ranking being more statistically significant than 10.

also, i believe that your analyses showed that the talent level at UT is virtually even with the talent level at Orgonia making the game an essential toss-up. this morning i saw an early line on the game that has Orgonia listed as a 25 point favorite over UT -- only bama, at 27 points, is given a larger spread. thus either you are on to something unique here and we all need to run to our bookies, or other analysts are seeing something that is not quantified by the talent analysis.

it will certainly be interesting to watch it all play out.
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First, I caution against using these simple analysis for gambling purposes. I flat wouldn't do it because betting against the spread isn't about predicting a winner or a loser it is about predicting who beats a spread (obviously). The odds are always in the house's favor as you aren't betting against them, persay, just against other gamblers. So, while people thinks that Vegas gets it right, all they have to do is get it close enough to entice gamblers who largely use subjective (not objective) analysis.

Second, I haven't researched Kelly's impact on recruiting at Cincinnati. It is a total moot point, however, as you can only compare performance against latent talent averaging four years. What you want to see is a coach who has a lower average each year he is on the job coupled with an ability to over perform with talent. There is a limit to this, obviously, where you out recruit everyone and then you just have to perform to your talent level.

Finally, in regards to Oregon, I have not closely examined their recruiting v. success. What I have seen indicates that Kelly is similar to other coaches who over-perform (Spurrier, Petrino, et al). It is highly unlikely, though not impossible, that Oregon will continue to over-perform to the same magnitude with their new coach as they did with Kelly. While talent averages for both UT and Oregon are similar, this game is an unknown. The question will be can Jones embed in our long suffering but talented roster enough of a skill set / conditioning / confidence in his system to play flawless ball against a team who has the confidence to know how to win? That confidence could get Oregon over the hump, perhaps even convincingly, early in the season. Where the impact of the coaching transition for both schools will show is over the arc of the whole season. I expect a downward trend in Oregon and an upward trend in UT. I just don't know if those lines will intersect at a point so early in the season.
 
#96
#96
Okay, here is a brief snap-shot of Oregon for the 2012 season illustrating their conference opponents four year trailing recruiting averages:

Oregon (17.5)

Arizona (45.75)
Washington State (77.25)
Washington (35)
Arizona State (40)
Colorado (56)
SoCal (4.25)-->W
Cal (23.25)
Stanford (18.25)-->L
Oregon State (48)
Kansas State (69.75)

So what does this show? It shows that Kelly is not really an over-performer as I, and others, have presumed. This illustrates clearly that the PAC is not a conference with a strong recruiting presence, especially compared to the SEC. In fact, Oregon-who recruits at levels similar to Tennessee-plays teams that they outclass by huge margins (this is not similar to UT). The loss to Stanford, seen as a huge upset by many, is really two closely matched teams. Southern Cal was the biggest under-performer last season, and their loss to Oregon is not unexpected. Kiff is historically on levels closer to Dooley.

The bottom line is that if 2012 was a good indicator of the Ducks/Kelly's performance they stick closely to the predicted outcome of only winning games that talent would predict that they win. They can be beaten by a team with similar talent (Stanford).

I am actually shocked at this outcome as I had presumed that the PAC 12 had teams with better talent than their averages show, and that Kelly would actually have been beating teams he should not have. Neither of those presumptions appears to be correct. I crunched these numbers previously, but did not zero in on the PAC enough to really digest the specific outcomes.

Bottom line: UT and Oregon are going to go head-to-head with rosters with similar talent, regardless of what the eyeball test would allow people to believe. It is understandable after looking at those numbers why Oregon appears so much better and faster than their competition...it is because their competition is extremely soft compared to the sort of in-conference schedule a team like UT is used to playing.

If you want a talent comparison, look at Tennessee's 2012 SEC schedule and see the vast disparity in quality of opponent:

Tennessee (12.25)

Alabama (2)
Florida (7)
Georgia (9.5)
South Carolina (18.25)
Mississippi State (34.25)
Missouri (35)
Kentucky (53.5)
Vanderbilt (57.75)

Yes, under Dooley, Tennessee was a terrible under-achiever. Now with a new coach, who has a proven track record of over-performing, all bets are off and we should expect to see a jump in performance paralleling our latent talent.
 
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#97
#97
tm3 said:
as i have noted in other threads, daj, i really enjoy your analyses as i find them very interesting.

however, there are a lot of different ways to slice and dice this stuff.

re recruiting at cincy, yes, CBJ did improve on kelly's average going from 68 to 58. i read elsewhere that when kelly arrived the cincy average was in the low 100's, so the largest jump in recruit quality was made by kelly with 40 spots in the ranking being more statistically significant than 10.

also, i believe that your analyses showed that the talent level at UT is virtually even with the talent level at Orgonia making the game an essential toss-up. this morning i saw an early line on the game that has Orgonia listed as a 25 point favorite over UT -- only bama, at 27 points, is given a larger spread. thus either you are on to something unique here and we all need to run to our bookies, or other analysts are seeing something that is not quantified by the talent analysis.

it will certainly be interesting to watch it all play out.
Click to expand...

Final thought: here are Cincy's recruiting trends since 2002.

  • 2002: 100
  • 2003: 92
  • 2004: 145-->Dantonio's first
  • 2005: 94
  • 2006: 108-->Dantonio's last
  • 2007: 89-->Kelly's first
  • 2008: 67
  • 2009: 60-->Kelly's last
  • 2010: 59-->Jones' first
  • 2011: 49
  • 2012: 50-->Jones' last
  • 2013: 71-->Tubberville's first
 
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#98
#98
Good stuff, daj. Those numbers on Cincy reflect what I was told, ie Kelly took them from avg low 100's into the 60's. then jones got them into the 50's.

I may have asked you this elsewhere, but have you ever analyzed Fulmer as far as under or over performing?
 
#99
#99
Daj, one thing not taken into account is something you see coaches say all the time: experienced play at qb. Teams with returning starter experience always seem to outperform new starters. Couple this with installing a new system and Tn expectations would be lowered somewhat I suspect. I know cincy was installing a diff system when they were 4-8, but did jones have a returning starter that year? I wonder what the stats would say for teams with new qb's against experienced starters. I know there will be disparity but is it statistically significant?
 
#100
#100
tm3 said:
Good stuff, daj. Those numbers on Cincy reflect what I was told, ie Kelly took them from avg low 100's into the 60's. then jones got them into the 50's.

I may have asked you this elsewhere, but have you ever analyzed Fulmer as far as under or over performing?
Click to expand...

Rivlas recruiting data only goes back to 2002. If someone can find me the recruiting data on all teams back to about 1988, I could begin that analysis.
 
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