Brando hints at 4 win season on his show

#101
#101
daj2576 said:
Rivlas recruiting data only goes back to 2002. If someone can find me the recruiting data on all teams back to about 1988, I could begin that analysis.
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right well i thought that you may have done 02 thru 08.

re cincy in the 4-8 year, they lost the starting QB but the returner had started 4 games in 09 and was listed as a strength along with the WR position. 3 of 5 starting OL returned, along with one of the starting RB. the problem was on D where they lost 10 starters.
 
#102
#102
StoVol said:
Daj, one thing not taken into account is something you see coaches say all the time: experienced play at qb. Teams with returning starter experience always seem to outperform new starters. Couple this with installing a new system and Tn expectations would be lowered somewhat I suspect. I know cincy was installing a diff system when they were 4-8, but did jones have a returning starter that year? I wonder what the stats would say for teams with new qb's against experienced starters. I know there will be disparity but is it statistically significant?
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My analysis is very general so it will miss some exceptions. Having done this evaluation for most teams back to the 2005 season, what I have found is that there isnt really a need to get so specific to see the predictive ability of talent averages. Without adjusting for attrition, or specific players, you can get the correct seasonal outcome basically 2/3 of the time. The remaining third reveals not specific players, persay, but specific coaches who tend to overperform over the long term. My hypothesis is that coaching is far less important when compared to talent on the field (but coaching can obviously have a major impact on talent like Dooley/Petrino) and that the idea of game changing players is subjective and typically moot. Even with Tebow, Florida still had better talent than almost everyone that they played. So Tebow is given credit, but the overall team was solid.
 
#103
#103
tm3 said:
right well i thought that you may have done 02 thru 08.

re cincy in the 4-8 year, they lost the starting QB but the returner had started 4 games in 09 and was listed as a strength along with the WR position. 3 of 5 starting OL returned, along with one of the starting RB. the problem was on D where they lost 10 starters.
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Using four year averages, the first year I can analyze is 2005. Yes, I have done 2005 to present. Id have to pull up the specific figures. It is obvious that during that part of our history we were on the decline and would be too small of a window to try to extrapolate out on Fulmer as a whole.
 
#104
#104
tm3 said:
Good stuff, daj. Those numbers on Cincy reflect what I was told, ie Kelly took them from avg low 100's into the 60's. then jones got them into the 50's.

I may have asked you this elsewhere, but have you ever analyzed Fulmer as far as under or over performing?
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The average of Kellys recruiting classes 72. The average of Jones recruiting classes was 52. Were splitting hairs, bit it does tend to show that Jones is a better recruiter in my view. When Jones took over, Cincy was still near the bottom of the big east and when he left they were roughly the bottom of the top third.
 
#105
#105
tm3 said:
right well i thought that you may have done 02 thru 08.

re cincy in the 4-8 year, they lost the starting QB but the returner had started 4 games in 09 and was listed as a strength along with the WR position. 3 of 5 starting OL returned, along with one of the starting RB. the problem was on D where they lost 10 starters.
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To me they performed as expected. Their strengths might have contributed to them beating two more talented teams, but the weakness on defense could have caused them to lose to the two less talented teams. It all comes out in the wash, and they won 4 games as predicted.
 
#106
#106
daj2576 said:
The average of Kellys recruiting classes 72. The average of Jones recruiting classes was 52. Were splitting hairs, bit it does tend to show that Jones is a better recruiter in my view. When Jones took over, Cincy was still near the bottom of the big east and when he left they were roughly the bottom of the top third.
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I agree it is a hair split and the small N makes it tough, but it can be argued that taking a team from 116 avg to 72 avg is better than going from 72 to 52. It is similar to the stance taken by many that Majors "built" the program and established the momentum that Fulmer rode. I don't entirely buy into that, but it does have some merit.

Jones had success at CM and Cincy, but he has never had to take on a rebuilding job before now -- he had the luxury of following Kelly. Twice.

Regardless, Kelly's ongoing success at ND verifies his talent. The stage is now set for Jones' acid test.
 
#107
#107
I can't see the outrage of the prediction. 4-8 is very possible. We are replacing our whole passing offense and our defense was horrid. If we have a better season than that it will be a very good sign, because it would have to mean that we actually improved throughout the year. Like it or not after week 2 it will be brutal. If we take our lumps and beat some AU's, MU's, etc. at the end of the year it will mean something we haven't seen in a long time...in-season improvement. That will get me a lot more excited than it should.

No matter what our record is it doesn't mean Butch isn't the right guy as someone suggested. He's working with a bare cupboard and somehow is pulling in an incredible class. That's just stupid.
 
#109
#109
No reason they shouldn't win 6. Heck, they almost won 7 last year, but a combination of a big play by Clowney and Doofus being...well, Doofus....cost us.
 
#110
#110
KCVolLaw said:
I can't see the outrage of the prediction. 4-8 is very possible. We are replacing our whole passing offense and our defense was horrid. If we have a better season than that it will be a very good sign, because it would have to mean that we actually improved throughout the year. Like it or not after week 2 it will be brutal. If we take our lumps and beat some AU's, MU's, etc. at the end of the year it will mean something we haven't seen in a long time...in-season improvement. That will get me a lot more excited than it should.

No matter what our record is it doesn't mean Butch isn't the right guy as someone suggested. He's working with a bare cupboard and somehow is pulling in an incredible class. That's just stupid.
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We have the best returning O-line in the SEC. And some pre-season accolades have been given to a couple of our defenders. Now that Doofus and Fat Sal are gone, you mean to tell me we can't beat Misslose, Candy, and UKrap?
No excuses for 4-8. Butch should land on the hot seat for that.
 
#111
#111
KCVolLaw said:
I can't see the outrage of the prediction. 4-8 is very possible. We are replacing our whole passing offense and our defense was horrid. If we have a better season than that it will be a very good sign, because it would have to mean that we actually improved throughout the year. Like it or not after week 2 it will be brutal. If we take our lumps and beat some AU's, MU's, etc. at the end of the year it will mean something we haven't seen in a long time...in-season improvement. That will get me a lot more excited than it should.

No matter what our record is it doesn't mean Butch isn't the right guy as someone suggested. He's working with a bare cupboard and somehow is pulling in an incredible class. That's just stupid.
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I agree with the sentiment, but with Austin Peay, Western Kentucky, South Alabama Vandy and Kentucky on the schedule, 4 wins would be cause for concern
 
#112
#112
volgrad500 said:
I agree with the sentiment, but with Austin Peay, Western Kentucky, South Alabama Vandy and Kentucky on the schedule, 4 wins would be cause for concern
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Not unless they actually lose one of those four. The rest of the games are all somewhere between toss ups and guaranteed losses.
 
#113
#113
I don't understand what makes people think that Tennessee, who is one of 2 college football programs to never lose 8 games in a season, is suddenly going to do it now after how Tennessee has been the last few years. We have 6 winnable games on this schedule. Austin Peay, WKU, South Alabama, Auburn, Vandy and Kentucky. If we didn't lose 8 games or more in the Dooley era, no way are we doing it now.
 
#115
#115
Obsessedvol said:
I don't understand what makes people think that Tennessee, who is one of 2 college football programs to never lose 8 games in a season, is suddenly going to do it now after how Tennessee has been the last few years. We have 6 winnable games on this schedule. Austin Peay, WKU, South Alabama, Auburn, Vandy and Kentucky. If we didn't lose 8 games or more in the Dooley era, no way are we doing it now.
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I don't understand why people cite that stat as if it somehow has any bearing on the upcoming season. Aside from offensive line, there is little to no SEC level talent on this years roster. While Dooley never actually lost 8 games, the full force of his terrible recruiting is just now beginning to rear its head. Dooley was the beneficiary of some leftover talent (mainly Bray) that had been recruited by other guys that managed to keep UT from getting to that 8 loss mark. All that said, I still don't think we'll lose 8 games. I think they'll beat APU, WKU, S. Alabama, UK and get a split between Auburn and Mizzou.
 
#117
#117
CBS Sports website in their 2013-2014 pre season bowl predictions predicted Tennessee wont go to a bowl game. It'll be nice when UT proves them wrong!
 
#120
#120
Unfortunately, his prediction for the Vowels may indeed be spot on.....yet many Vol fans see visions of grandeur and a 7-8 win season. The last few years have given me a real dose of reality, so with our lack of skill position players (including the most important..QB) I would have to agree with Brando, until proven different.
 
#121
#121
JohnnyBall said:
pretty much has mailed them in at 1-7 SEC if thats the case..
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Oh noes! A guy that never played football is making bad predictions for us!

Auburn was predicted to be 5th in the West the year they won the National Title. Prognosticators know jackshiznit. (trying to watch my language mods:))
 
#123
#123
Donvolson said:
he was referring to the amount of times he got laid in college vs. the amount of times he blacked out after funneling kerosene
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Where are the likes for this post? Funny as hell.... Especially the laid in college riff...
 
#125
#125
photovol said:
Unfortunately, his prediction for the Vowels may indeed be spot on.....yet many Vol fans see visions of grandeur and a 7-8 win season. The last few years have given me a real dose of reality, so with our lack of skill position players (including the most important..QB) I would have to agree with Brando, until proven different.
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Sad state of affairs when a 7-8 win season has become "visions of grandeur". Thanks Dooley.
 
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