Breakdown of Incompletions vs Austin Peay

#26
#26
Pump Guy said:
From what video was available during fall practice, it looked like Milton had developed "touch" to his passing game. There are a lot of people who know tons more about the quarterback position than I do, but I define "touch" as the ability to put a ball, where it needs to be and also gives the receiver the ability to adjust to put himself in the best position to catch the ball.

At this point of the season, which is VERY early, Milton is back to throwing rockets at a spot. That is very good for wide receiver screens, it is not good for slant passes or deep throws.
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I don't think those receiver drops were mainly because of them coming in like a rocket though... they just missed it
 
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#27
#27
Bloodrunsorange27 said:
If they were standing still maybe, but they were running across the field to Milton's right and he threw they ball way behind them. To try to spin and turn and reach a ball behind you while you are running in the opposite direction is not catchable. You either never played football so you don't understand this or you have an agenda of trying to blame the WRs for Milton's terrible passing
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I see those balls caught routinely in the SEC and NFL. And here we're only talking about what 2 of the 6 drops. Thornton had 2 bad drops, White dropped an easy first down, Small dropped one laid right out in front of him.

I'm not some Milton lacky. I like analysis and I try to be objective with analysis. If I were grading the passing game I'd give Milton a D, but as a position group, I have to give the WRs an F.
 
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#28
#28
Pump Guy said:
From what video was available during fall practice, it looked like Milton had developed "touch" to his passing game. There are a lot of people who know tons more about the quarterback position than I do, but I define "touch" as the ability to put a ball, where it needs to be and also gives the receiver the ability to adjust to put himself in the best position to catch the ball.

At this point of the season, which is VERY early, Milton is back to throwing rockets at a spot. That is very good for wide receiver screens, it is not good for slant passes or deep throws.
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The ball to McCoy in the endzone was definitely too hot. I actually think the ball to Castles that was dropped was thrown too soft. The ball that small dropped had some nice touch on it.
 
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#29
#29
37620VOL said:
I see those balls caught routinely in the SEC and NFL. And here we're only talking about what 2 of the 6 drops. Thornton had 2 bad drops, White dropped an easy first down, Small dropped one laid right out in front of him.

I'm not some Milton lacky. I like analysis and I try to be objective with analysis. If I were grading the passing game I'd give Milton a D, but as a position group, I have to give the WRs an F.
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I would have to go back and look at each incompletion to know whether or not I agree with your opinion on any of those others. From what I saw, he had a couple of good throws that were dropped and the rest were due to being very inaccurate throws. His passing was terrible.
An average QB with decent accuracy and that game would have been a blowout by halftime.
 
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#33
#33
I was a little rough on Milton and the team in a lot of my posts right after the game. That being said, I'm ready to chalk this game up to early season jitters, first game in Neyland, and some on-going adjustments between QB and receivers early in the year. Ready to move on and dominate in the swamp.
 
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#34
#34
DonDiego said:
I was a little rough on Milton and the team in a lot of my posts right after the game. That being said, I'm ready to chalk this game up to early season jitters, first game in Neyland, and some on-going adjustments between QB and receivers early in the year. Ready to move on and dominate in the swamp.
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the whole game yesterday just felt weird and flat... from the weather delay and no pre-game, T, etc.

the other team was just more pumped up and excited to be playing in Neyland than we were
 
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#35
#35
I agree with most of it but the first qtr drop by McCoy and Castles were more like 60-70% catchable. That is a very hard catch to make with that much velocity. If it was slightly in front I'd say 90-100% catchable. Thornton and White should've came up with 2 or 3 of those
 
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#37
#37
mrmax86 said:
Under this you forgot to say DPI not called by refs, first down.
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You make a good point. I try to be objective as possible when I look at these things, so I didn't call this one out because the defender did "sort of" turn his head.
 
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#38
#38
I appreciate the effort, but all this really does is hide the debate people are having behind the word "catchable." Something could be technically catchable, by the sheerest of margins, but still be a bad pass. I think that's where the friction of this debate emerges.

To me, what counts here isn't calling a pass catchable or uncatchable, but rather deciding the odds of a pass leading to "success."

I'll use the "drop" by Castles at 7:13 as perfect example of where I would apply this. You call the pass "80% catchable" but also note that if it's thrown ahead of Castles, it's a huge play for a lot of yards. I'm not even sure I agree with the 80% value, but we'll leave that point as it is.

From my perspective, that's a throw that gives the play a 50-50% chance of being successful. But if Milton puts the ball ahead of Castles in his route, the odds are 80-90% that it's successful. A little better than 4 out of 5 times. I'm sure someone would say "100%," but I think 80-90% is more realistic. Strange things happen sometimes, the point is, the play's odds of success are greatly influenced by the qualities of the throw's accuracy and touch. And we wouldn't need to be evaluating a lot of these passes for their "catchability" if they were better thrown. Putting balls in the right places elevates the odds of success across the board; putting them in bad places lowers the odds of success. Even if they're technically "catchable."

And that's where I think the crux of this argument resides. We get a little train going of "the receiver should still catch that" versus "well maybe the quarterback should have made a better pass." I don't know that there's a right or wrong place to be, but it's probably somewhere in the middle -- and just a little ahead of the receiver.
 
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#39
#39
Volador said:
So, you're saying that 3 passes were uncatchable and, that we have a chance against Florida this weekend??
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Certainly, our only offensive player that brought his A game was Wright. Everyone else has a lot of manageable things that they absolutely can clean up by this weekend.
 
#41
#41
camp_steveo said:
Thanks.

I just ignore the 'chicken little - the sky is falling' crowd.

First of all, UT is going to run the ball down UF's throat. The Vols are, after all, a 'run first' offense, correct?

And when UF tries to make an adjustment, CJH will make the call to go over the top.
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camp_steveo said:
I don't care who you blame, but if you want to be a WR in the NFL...you don't drop the ball when it hits you in the hands. I don't care how hard it was thrown, or if it was a little off.

If you want to win....you catch it.
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Fred White has entered the chat.
 
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#42
#42
camp_steveo said:
It is the reality for a college WR who wants to be an NFL prospect.
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This is a pretty silly statement, and even further from reality than the last one. It just doesn't work that way. If that were the case, there would be dozens of receivers every Saturday catching everything and never dropping a ball - which has never happened in the history of college football. The Top Ten on Sportscenter would be Top 200, twenty minutes long and nothing but catch highlights.
 
#43
#43
lifeisdeep said:
This is a pretty silly statement, and even further from reality than the last one. It just doesn't work that way. If that were the case, there would be dozens of receivers every Saturday catching everything and never dropping a ball - which has never happened in the history of college football. The Top Ten on Sportscenter would be Top 200, twenty minutes long and nothing but catch highlights.
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Way to put words in my mouth.

If you were an NFL scout, would you say not catching those passes is not a problem when compared to another prospect who did make the same catch?

Get my point now?
 
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#44
#44
sorry i didn't see this or i wouldn't have started a new thread. mods, feel free to combine
 
#45
#45
camp_steveo said:
Way to put words in my mouth.

If you were an NFL scout, would you say not catching those passes is not a problem when compared to another prospect who did make the same catch?

Get my point now?
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You're speaking in terms of fantasy rather than reality. If you take the time to watch NFL games rather than making up this magical imaginary NFL that doesn't exist, you'll see that even passes that are perfectly placed get dropped in the NFL, every single week. Here's a better example: the receiver who won the award as the top receiver in college football a year ago had a pass thrown to him last night on SNF - it was behind him, not yards but a foot or two; he was able to "get his hands on it," but because his forward momentum (he runs pretty fast if you're not aware) was taking him speedily away from the ball, all of him including his hands, he didn't make the catch. I suppose now you'll tell me the Giants are going to cut him because he is not playing up to the NFL level? No - his QB made a bad pass, and because he is human and his body is subject to the laws of physics, he was unable to make the catch.
 
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#47
#47
Bloodrunsorange27 said:
You described terrible throws way behind receivers as catchable. Move on
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As Fred White said last night, if the receiver touches the football it is his responsibility to catch it. No QB is perfect in college. Hooker over threw receivers last year. Where was your criticism then?

I have a feeling that people are setting Nico up to be the next Guarantano. Play him too early against SEC top notch teams and ruin his confidence. But then again, UT fans always know more than their $9 mil coaches.
 
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#48
#48
This fan base is a blessing yet a curse. You have the loud mouths calling for Joe to be sat yet we are 2-0. Just stfu, Heupel has earned that grace. We have media taking sh1t from here and causing even more of a distraction. You are not helping and the coaches damn sure don't care what you think from your couch. Discussion is one thing the continued negativity about Joe is something else. We are 2 games into a season. Nico is not ready. Sit down, enjoy the season for what it is. We are only going as far as Joe leads us
 
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#49
#49
37620VOL said:
Third Quarter
11:00 Drop by Small, led nicely, lots of open field, 90% catchable
View attachment 578237

7:00 Pass under duress, had to get it out before White turned, White almost makes incredible play, 10% catchable
View attachment 578238
6:40 Pass to White, obvious PI not called
View attachment 578239
:55 Pass (under duress) bounced to Keyton, 0% catchable
View attachment 578240
Fourth Quarter
No incompletions

RECAP
Milton was 21/23 with 12 incompletions.
6 of the incompletions were more than 80% catchable and another was an obvious PI.
His three worst throws were:
  • The zinger through the end zone to McCoy
  • Underthrown fade route to McCoy in the endzone
  • Underthrown fade route to White in the endzone
Click to expand...
Think you ate way off base with your % catchable
 
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