Breakdown of Incompletions vs Austin Peay

[K-town Vol Fan]

I appreciate the effort, but all this really does is hide the debate people are having behind the word "catchable." Something could be technically catchable, by the sheerest of margins, but still be a bad pass. I think that's where the friction of this debate emerges.

To me, what counts here isn't calling a pass catchable or uncatchable, but rather deciding the odds of a pass leading to "success."

I'll use the "drop" by Castles at 7:13 as perfect example of where I would apply this. You call the pass "80% catchable" but also note that if it's thrown ahead of Castles, it's a huge play for a lot of yards. I'm not even sure I agree with the 80% value, but we'll leave that point as it is.

From my perspective, that's a throw that gives the play a 50-50% chance of being successful. But if Milton puts the ball ahead of Castles in his route, the odds are 80-90% that it's successful. A little better than 4 out of 5 times. I'm sure someone would say "100%," but I think 80-90% is more realistic. Strange things happen sometimes, the point is, the play's odds of success are greatly influenced by the qualities of the throw's accuracy and touch. And we wouldn't need to be evaluating a lot of these passes for their "catchability" if they were better thrown. Putting balls in the right places elevates the odds of success across the board; putting them in bad places lowers the odds of success. Even if they're technically "catchable."

And that's where I think the crux of this argument resides. We get a little train going of "the receiver should still catch that" versus "well maybe the quarterback should have made a better pass." I don't know that there's a right or wrong place to be, but it's probably somewhere in the middle -- and just a little ahead of the receiver.

Exactly. Watch Tua's highlights from yesterday. Literally almost every ball was placed exactly where it needed to be. He played an amazing game yesterday. Accuracy and anticipation is what separates good QBs from elite QBs. Hitting an open WR in stride vs having to turn around and stop can likely be the difference in a game.

 

[BACKDOC]

Thanks.

I just ignore the 'chicken little - the sky is falling' crowd.

First of all, UT is going to run the ball down UF's throat. The Vols are, after all, a 'run first' offense, correct?

And when UF tries to make an adjustment, CJH will make the call to go over the top.

.........and we open the play book a little too.

 

[DMichel123]

We don't believe in Milton because we didn't see success last year.

Hmmm. Milton looked great to me last year. A bunch of touchdowns and zero picks. Won the games he started after he took over after Hooker's injury.

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

Hmmm. Milton looked great to me last year. A bunch of touchdowns and zero picks. Won the games he started after he took over after Hooker's injury.

Many here, if you read the threads, don't recall anything Milton has done except overthrow.

You're correct, he did what was needed after Hooker went down but all folks recall was his first couple of games with UT and Hooker replacing him.

Because he's not Hendon Hooker, he's not good and, even crazier, they think he's causing Josh Heupel to create this whole slower tempo, really really simple offense........ despite the fact Milton ran the uptempo, pre-snap reads, regular Heupel offense rather well against Clemson.

 

[Checker_the_Shire]

Great summary of these...I would lower the likelihood of catching some of those throws, especially the first one that was behind the receiver.

I also think a review of the caught balls would be in order as well---seems to me that most all the caught throws were behind the line of scrimmage.

Does anyone remember how many caught balls were 5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage?

________

That being said, I believe that Huepel needs to get Milton in a rhythm and some easy catches to start games....some screens and bubble screens to get everything started, get him some easy completions before going downfield. Seems Milton's confidence can get shaken quite easily and then he starts aiming instead of throwing....I would start with a few easy completions first....

GoVols247 postgame podcast stated maybe 1 or 2, at the most, were beyond 10 yards (I believe) was the total. Otherwise, it was mostly short screen plays. I think, as it stands, CJH doesn’t trust Milton with the long ball nor does he fully trust our receivers. It’ll take some time for all of them to adjust. After all, last year’s team started slow—does everyone forget the Pitt game that very well could have been a loss?

 

[spyfish007]

I like and appreciate the write up from the OP. I wish he would take the feedback as willing as he gave his opinion. The biggest example is that the super majority of feedback is that the first pass to McCoy was not really catchable. Maybe 25% and he has like 90 or 100% on it.

So much good discussion including how important leading the receiver is especially as we get into SEC play. Hard to get YAC if you are struggling just to make a catch of a "catchable" ball and if you fall down I college then the play is over or you lose momentum and the defense catches you. YAC is usually huge in winning the close games.

Receivers need to catch. Milton needs to lead the receiver a bit more. If both happen we could have a great year. It is not inconceivable.

 

[lifeisdeep]

All those on here trumpeting that Milton is a good QB because he beat Vandy, Clemson, and UVA…JG beat some bad teams too. Clemson just lost to Duke so beating them is not exactly scaling Everest.

 

[NOLAPhil]

I saw the same when I rewatched. Just looking at making the play that was there...it would have been 45-3 with 7 min left in the 3rd. Joe missed a few throws and like 3 reads for open receivers. Refs and drops affected alot.

 

[vegasvolfan]

Breakdown of Incompletions

First Quarter

11:02 Drop by McCoy 100% catchable

View attachment 578228

10:22 Too high to White 5% catchable
View attachment 578229

7:13 Drop by Castles, but huge gain to be had if the pass leads him better, 80% catchable
View attachment 578230


7:06 Drop by White, perfect pass by Milton, would have been 1st down, 100% catchable
View attachment 578231

5:57 Pass well wide of McCoy, 0% catchable, good ball is a TD
View attachment 578232

1:44 Drop by Thornton, perfect pass by Milton, would have been 1st down, 100% catchable
View attachment 578233


Second Quarter

14:58 Drop by Thornton, perfect pass by Milton while taking a hit, would have been TD, 100% catchable
View attachment 578234

:28 Pass underthrown to McCoy, 10% catchable
View attachment 578236

... Third and Fourth Quarters in next post.

There was pass interference on this one was there not?

 

[kell7517]

I didn’t see the game but it seems a little arbitrary to assign a percentage to “catchable” based on nothing but your opinion and then proceed as though that’s fact. Conversely, if your percentages are accurate, Heupel needs to threaten pulling some scholarships.

Their is a 45% chance Heup would do that. Just kidding.

 

[PlanetVolunteer]

That was a nice unbiased take on the catchability of passes from Milton (blue font)

The first passes you mentioned for McCoy and McCastle as catchable were off. Both of those were terrible throws way behind wide open receivers that would have been big plays if the pass was accurate.
I didn't bother looking at the rest with that obvious agenda.

So you didn't read the rest because of your obvious agenda? Get over yourself. The Bru one was definitely catchable. The Castles one was really bad, still could have been caught, but if you look at the rest it still stood that maybe 3 or 4 weren't catchable which is NORMAL for an entire game and he missed TWO in the UVA game. Get over your Milton hate.

 

[PlanetVolunteer]

So you gloss right over my criticisms of Milton, but I'm the one with an agenda? hmmm

These are sad people. They want Milton to be bad more than they actually love the Tennessee Volunteers.

 

[Vol737]

Even the throws that were questionably catchable, these receivers are excellent athletes, have made far more difficult catches hundreds of times in their football careers and would probably be the first to tell you they should've caught it. Bru, Castles, Small and Thornton all got two hands on the balls they dropped. Gotta bring those in if you're playing at this level. Make those catches and Joe's stats are more like 25/33, 300+ yds and 3 or 4 touchdowns. @37620VOL, nice breakdown.

 

[J C Higgins]

These are sad people. They want Milton to be bad more than they actually love the Tennessee Volunteers.

I think everybody wants Joe to perform well. But those who reference his performance in the past several years are justified in their criticism and concern.

 

[37620VOL]

I think everybody wants Joe to perform well. But those who reference his performance in the past several years are justified in their criticism and concern.

My problem is that most of the Joe haters wildly exaggerate in their criticisms to the point that it seems personal and one questions their motivations. I've criticized some of Joe's throws but the Pro-Joe crowd doesn't come at you nearly as hard as the Joe haters when you point out anything that supports Joe. There are some rational critiques that are justified, but then there are the irrational, overboard posts that need to be called out.

 

[PlanetVolunteer]

My problem is that most of the Joe haters wildly exaggerate in their criticisms to the point that it seems personal and one questions their motivations. I've criticized some of Joe's throws but the Pro-Joe crowd doesn't come at you nearly as hard as the Joe haters when you point out anything that supports Joe. There are some rational critiques that are justified, but then there are the irrational, overboard posts that need to be called out.

They've overreacted to every little bad thing he's done since the Pitt overthrows

It carries over from the JG years.

 

[Eddie Vol Halen]

Had to listen to the game. Have enjoyed the passing game breakdowns that have been presented on VolNation. Good job, OP.

When I have seen the game footage now: 80% on the receivers and 20% on Milton and that might be generous to the receivers. I think Peyton Manning would 100% agree with the assessment here. On the Colts, PM would tell receivers to go sit down and get out of the huddle if they missed balls like that. Everybody can do better but the receivers have to get low and dig a few out or go up and grab a high ball. They just do.

It is impossible for a team like Tennessee to get motivated for an Austin Peay. The lightning delay played a bigger factor than we want to believe. Joe might not be PM or HH or even Iceman but he has been playing well. We need a solid week of practice, the receivers have to step up and play better but if we have good first quarter in the Swamp, we will dominate.

 

[Bloodrunsorange27]

So you didn't read the rest because of your obvious agenda? Get over yourself. The Bru one was definitely catchable. The Castles one was really bad, still could have been caught, but if you look at the rest it still stood that maybe 3 or 4 weren't catchable which is NORMAL for an entire game and he missed TWO in the UVA game. Get over your Milton hate.

Who are you talking to? I’ve watched the game and every pass play. There were two good throws and the rest were on Milton. That’s reality. Get over yourself

 

[lastlapuncle]

Nobody blamed anyone other than Ms. Oleary's cow for the Chicago fire either.

 

[youcancallmeAl]

Even if we conclude those maybe catchable passes were not catchable, then just the blatant drops and lost fumble after catch by Ramel were enough to cost us some points, maybe 14. A 44-13 score would have created much less of all this teeth gnashing. Conclusion: Joe is gonna be inaccurate at times: It's who he is. Given that, our receivers must absolutely catch the well-thrown balls. They must catch the well thrown balls against Florida or we will be one-dimensional again and very beatable.

 

[luthervol]

You described terrible throws way behind receivers as catchable. Move on

They were 100% catchable.

 

[GoVols1961]

I think everybody wants Joe to perform well. But those who reference his performance in the past several years are justified in their criticism and concern.

Past several years:

2018 Michigan - Redshirt
2019 Michigan - Third string no meaningful playing time.
2020 Michigan - Five games played in Covid impacted season. Three Michigan games cancelled.
2021 Tennessee - Two games - Injured in game two - Hooker replaces and keeps starting job.
2022 Tennessee - Backup quarterback - Plays a little and does well - Replaces injured Hooker for Vandy and Clemson - Wins both games.
2023 Tennessee - Wins first two games. Game 2 not the prettiest but a WIN nonetheless. 4-0 since returning as starter.

I think the expectations of Milton are a bit high considering how little playing time he has really had the past few years. Hooker had 15 games under his belt at Virginia Tech. Joe Milton had 5 games at Michigan. Joe is behind in his development compared to Hooker. We need to give him time to develop, tolerate some mistakes, and hope he is able to become the quarterback we all want him to be.

 

[TVOL71]

When you go back and watch the game Tenn left 21 to 28 pts off the board due to lack of catching passes, overthrown passes, and calls by the refs and lack there of on the PI in the endzone. 2nd Half it seemed our offense was in a better rhythm just could not cash drives with TD's. Just need to get better and play a lot better vs. Florida at the Swamp. I feel the defense played fairly well - got a few guys in at LB. The TD was scored due to Slaughter falling down. He hasn't been playing well this year for some reason.

I saw a replay and it looked very much like Slaughter didn't fall but was pushed down by the receiver, yet another non-call of what should have been a penalty. Very possibly the most blatantly biased refereeing of a game that I have ever seen. Those refs should be fired after their performance in that game.

 

[joevols89]

Breakdown of Incompletions

First Quarter

11:02 Drop by McCoy 100% catchable

View attachment 578228

10:22 Too high to White 5% catchable
View attachment 578229

7:13 Drop by Castles, but huge gain to be had if the pass leads him better, 80% catchable
View attachment 578230


7:06 Drop by White, perfect pass by Milton, would have been 1st down, 100% catchable
View attachment 578231

5:57 Pass well wide of McCoy, 0% catchable, good ball is a TD
View attachment 578232

1:44 Drop by Thornton, perfect pass by Milton, would have been 1st down, 100% catchable
View attachment 578233


Second Quarter

14:58 Drop by Thornton, perfect pass by Milton while taking a hit, would have been TD, 100% catchable
View attachment 578234

:28 Pass underthrown to McCoy, 10% catchable
View attachment 578236

... Third and Fourth Quarters in next post.

Agree with most of these but 100% disagree on the first Bru one and the Castles one. The Castles catch is not a catch for most NFL TEs.

 

[Alto1]

Third Quarter
11:00 Drop by Small, led nicely, lots of open field, 90% catchable
View attachment 578237

7:00 Pass under duress, had to get it out before White turned, White almost makes incredible play, 10% catchable
View attachment 578238
6:40 Pass to White, obvious PI not called
View attachment 578239
:55 Pass (under duress) bounced to Keyton, 0% catchable
View attachment 578240
Fourth Quarter
No incompletions

RECAP
Milton was 21/23 with 12 incompletions.
6 of the incompletions were more than 80% catchable and another was an obvious PI.
His three worst throws were:

• The zinger through the end zone to McCoy
• Underthrown fade route to McCoy in the endzone
• Underthrown fade route to White in the endzone

Great analysis! Spot on…..