Breakdown tn vs kentucky (merged)

#251
#251
Marc Maggard said:
Dude, your ridiculous. Why would you think that a team that shoots HORRIBLY from the FT line needs to get to the line a lot to win against UCONN???? that's just stupid.

And St. John's went 3-14..... had they hit ONE of those 11 misses, they would be exactly at their 3 point average, so it's not like they were more than one missed 3 off their "average".

Come on stat boy....stop sucking so hard.

Just admit that you didn't have a clue what was going to happen and you went to a website and started spouting off something stupid to sound smart.....:crazy:

mm
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You are so defensive and hostile it is hilarious. But zzzz, the namecalling thing is getting tiresome, so I'll stick to facts:

First off they don't shoot horribly so much as they just don't get to the line at all. If you really think not getting fouls and going to the line is a thing poor FT% teams should do: just WOW. I mean seriously: that is just WOW.

ANd yes, my whole point, pregame, was that they AVERAGE atrocious 3pt shooting. Thanks for pointing out that I was right. LOL

In the words of the a man who 'got no idea': "stop sucking so hard"

-mm

also of note: UNC turned the ball over 11% of the time vs virginia. that is a 99% correlation with double digit wins. Virginia had not done that poorly all year at forcing and UNC had only done that well vs chaminade. And yet I called it....with just numbers, haha.
 
#252
#252
lidderer said:
You are so defensive and hostile it is hilarious. But zzzz, the namecalling thing is getting tiresome, so I'll stick to facts:

First off they don't shoot horribly so much as they just don't get to the line at all. If you really think not getting fouls and going to the line is a thing poor FT% teams should do: just WOW. I mean seriously: that is just WOW.

ANd yes, my whole point, pregame, was that they AVERAGE atrocious 3pt shooting. Thanks for pointing out that I was right. LOL

In the words of the a man who 'got no idea': "stop sucking so hard"

-mm

also of note: UNC turned the ball over 11% of the time vs virginia. that is a 99% correlation with double digit wins. Virginia had not done that poorly all year at forcing and UNC had only done that well vs chaminade. And yet I called it....with just numbers, haha.
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Oh, my bad.... I finally went and checked.... St. John's is shooting 63% from the FT line AS A TEAM this year. Hell, Shaq is nearly outshooting St. Johns from the FT line..... what was I thinking....those boys need to get to the line A LOT!!!! ridiculous.


You really act like its some major insight that Virginia won't be forcing UNC into TO's with some of the best guard play in the nation????

You act like you are predicting lotto numbers....haha.

Any idiot can quote Ken Pomeroy....and you have proven that.

I was just hoping you were capable of some INSIGHT into a game..... but I was right, you are not.

mm
 
#253
#253
Marc Maggard said:
Oh, my bad.... I finally went and checked.... St. John's is shooting 63% from the FT line AS A TEAM this year. Hell, Shaq is nearly outshooting St. Johns from the FT line..... what was I thinking....those boys need to get to the line A LOT!!!! ridiculous.


You really act like its some major insight that Virginia won't be forcing UNC into TO's with some of the best guard play in the nation????

You act like you are predicting lotto numbers....haha.

Any idiot can quote Ken Pomeroy....and you have proven that.

I was just hoping you were capable of some INSIGHT into a game..... but I was right, you are not.

mm
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Speaking of lotto numbers, those predictions sure did pay off.

We are talking about the effectiveness of stats, thats this whole thread's gist. Durrr, of course Im gonna spend time showcasing that element. That's why it's called a thread, see?

And no, not of course virginia will be held to 11% TOs on UNC, that is a huge difference from "oh UNC is great with the ball" and the product of the stat I pointed out here and last year that was met with much argument.

If you can't understand that incredibly basica and fundamental difference, there's no hope for ya.

I didnt see one insight from you the entire time in this thread, and still haven't, and you're the dude promoting ONLY inisight over stats.

On that note: "LOL"(--mm)
 
#255
#255
lidderer said:
Speaking of lotto numbers, those predictions sure did pay off.

We are talking about the effectiveness of stats, thats this whole thread's gist. Durrr, of course Im gonna spend time showcasing that element. That's why it's called a thread, see?

And no, not of course virginia will be held to 11% TOs on UNC, that is a huge difference from "oh UNC is great with the ball" and the product of the stat I pointed out here and last year that was met with much argument.

If you can't understand that incredibly basica and fundamental difference, there's no hope for ya.

I didnt see one insight from you the entire time in this thread, and still haven't, and you're the dude promoting ONLY inisight over stats.

On that note: "LOL"(--mm)
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The entire reason you STARTED POSTING in this thread was due to insight from me. Telling UT fans that a full court press wan't going to result in lots of TO's against UK.....which it wasn't. ANd guess what, I didn't use a single stat to be right.

I guess your next amazing trick is to tell us all that your stats predict that Blake Griffin will score double digits and have at least 8 rebounds in his next game.

You need to take that stuff on the road.....it's amazing.

mm
 
#257
#257
Marc Maggard said:
The entire reason you STARTED POSTING in this thread was due to insight from me. Telling UT fans that a full court press wan't going to result in lots of TO's against UK.....which it wasn't. ANd guess what, I didn't use a single stat to be right.

I guess your next amazing trick is to tell us all that your stats predict that Blake Griffin will score double digits and have at least 8 rebounds in his next game.

You need to take that stuff on the road.....it's amazing.

mm
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You said "i got no idea". How are you forgetting this? You offered up nothing until after the game and then said "oh ya, well...". That's the real trick!

I didnt even need gamefilm to tell me the exact reasons why UNC and UCONN would handily beat their opponents, and the exact reasons I listed turned out correct.

No one said it was some amazing trick, or some little special secret. I just said that what it predicted would come to fruition.

That is exactly what happened.

I was right, so were the numbers.

Get over it.

Your 'insight' was plain and offered nothing interesting, as I showed: it doesnt matter the kinds of turnovers because the point is its not something that will be fixed.

If TEAM A gets 15 turnovers from TEAM B, it does not matter, causally, how those turnovers happened, whether forced or not.

Ask your pal hatvol what matters and he will say "the scoreboard". If 15 TOs result in a change in score(which they do) then it is meaningless how they came about, esp. when a trend like that has legs throughout a season.

Woot Woot
 
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#258
#258
lidderer said:
You said "i got no idea". How are you forgetting this? You offered up nothing until after the game and then said "oh ya, well...". That's the real trick!

I didnt even need gamefilm to tell me the exact reasons why UNC and UCONN would handily beat their opponents, and the exact reasons I listed turned out correct.

No one said it was some amazing trick, or some little special secret. I just said that what it predicted would come to fruition.

That is exactly what happened.

I was right, so were the numbers.

Get over it.

Your 'insight' was plain and offered nothing interesting, as I showed: it doesnt matter the kinds of turnovers because the point is its not something that will be fixed.

If TEAM A gets 15 turnovers from TEAM B, it does not matter, causally, how those turnovers happened, whether forced or not.

Ask your pal hatvol what matters and he will say "the scoreboard". If 15 TOs result in a change in score(which they do) then it is meaningless how they came about, esp. when a trend like that has legs throughout a season.

Woot Woot
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dude, you are just repeating the same old stuff over and over....making the most ridiculously elementary statements and then acting like you discovered a cure for cancer.....no insight at all.

You don't know crap about hoops.

I got a great idea.... Why don't you call into my radio show on ESPN in Nashville on Wed and we can talk hoops for about 5 minutes.....It will be a ton of fun to listen to you drop that incredible stat knowledge live on air.

mm
 
#259
#259
Marc Maggard said:
dude, you are just repeating the same old stuff over and over....making the most ridiculously elementary statements and then acting like you discovered a cure for cancer.....no insight at all.

You don't know crap about hoops.

I got a great idea.... Why don't you call into my radio show on ESPN in Nashville on Wed and we can talk hoops for about 5 minutes.....It will be a ton of fun to listen to you drop that incredible stat knowledge live on air.

mm
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:lol:
 
#260
#260
Marc Maggard said:
dude, you are just repeating the same old stuff over and over....making the most ridiculously elementary statements and then acting like you discovered a cure for cancer.....no insight at all.

You don't know crap about hoops.

I got a great idea.... Why don't you call into my radio show on ESPN in Nashville on Wed and we can talk hoops for about 5 minutes.....It will be a ton of fun to listen to you drop that incredible stat knowledge live on air.

mm
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I know more than "i got no idea" and that knowledge paid off tonight big time.

I'm more than content with that, and it required just a little look at sound and decently predictive numbers.:dance2:

I'll be sure to tune into "I got no idea" type insights though, that sounds really great.


The reason I'm making elementary points is to show you that stats can help people who 'got no idea' figure out that a team is probably gonna win by double-digits and WHY/HOW they do that.

Yes, it is soooo easy to find that out, so in that sense: elementary. That's the whole point! hahaha

ANd if you read the post prior i specifically said 'this is not some secret or some amazing discovery', so durrrr, of course its not a cure for cancer or anything incredible. I was the one who said that, hahah wow.

You can't handle discussing basketball right here? Why don't you take me up on the offer of 20 games, just pick them, you don't even have to tell me why what'll happen will happen...but you're a scout, and you know a lot--except when you 'got no idea', i guess--so I assume you'll be able to provide reasons why.

I'll do the same and we'll see what happens as a 'fun' experiment. If you get more than me, I'll concede that you are right, and your scouting knowledge gives you a better ability to conclude the only thing that hatvol says matters: "the scoreboard".

If I win, you don't even have to compliment me, you can just say that I am a stat geek. In fact, I will go you one better and JUST use stats. I will put pure numbers against you.

Simple innocent bet that is germane to this thread's claims. If you don't want to I'm cool with that, but I think it would be funny, and possibly humbling for me.

But I know, there would be too much on the line, you would be the only one with something to lose, so you'll bypass it. Plus we probably both have more important things to do anyway. Like you and that warcraft thing you seem to know so much about.
 
#261
#261
Good lord.... I have a long history of not "picking" games. I've not claimed any ability to "pick" games and if I thought that someone was good at it, I'd take em to vegas and win some money.....

And you stick to "elementary" analysis using stats cause that's all you got. If all I had was stats, I'd say "I have no idea"....cause I wouldn't want to look as basketball ignorant as you do.... "St. John's can't shoot from deep, so they need to get to the FT line".....lol....look at Jay Bilas, here comes stat boy.

If you got some more, come on the air with me and lets do it live....real time..... I'd love to expose your brilliant knowledge to the espn listening audience.....


mm
 
#262
#262
Marc Maggard said:
Good lord.... I have a long history of not "picking" games. I've not claimed any ability to "pick" games and if I thought that someone was good at it, I'd take em to vegas and win some money.....

And you stick to "elementary" analysis using stats cause that's all you got. If all I had was stats, I'd say "I have no idea"....cause I wouldn't want to look as basketball ignorant as you do.... "St. John's can't shoot from deep, so they need to get to the FT line".....lol....look at Jay Bilas, here comes stat boy.

If you got some more, come on the air with me and lets do it live....real time..... I'd love to expose your brilliant knowledge to the espn listening audience.....


mm
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Ah, just as I thought.

Well hey good luck analyzing games with no ability to predict outcomes, I'll stick with my watching games and tracking numbers and excellent success rates predicting outcomes vs the spread(see: tonight).

Hatvol would be disappointed I'd think though, since the only thing that matters is the 'scoreboard'. tsk tsk

You have an agenda in your transparent offer, and it would take a complete moron to take lame bait like that, much as why you aren't accepting mine. Tell the radio kids to check out kenpom.com or any of the countless other sites out there dedicated to new metrics...that alone should give them enough insight to feast on....unless they dont watch the game too. ha
 
#263
#263
lidderer said:
Ah, just as I thought.

Well hey good luck analyzing games with no ability to predict outcomes, I'll stick with my watching games and tracking numbers and excellent success rates predicting outcomes vs the spread(see: tonight).

Hatvol would be disappointed I'd think though, since the only thing that matters is the 'scoreboard'. tsk tsk

You have an agenda in your transparent offer, and it would take a complete moron to take lame bait like that, much as why you aren't accepting mine. Tell the radio kids to check out kenpom.com or any of the countless other sites out there dedicated to new metrics...that alone should give them enough insight to feast on....unless they dont watch the game too. ha
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Why waste your amazing ability on me..... why not go to vegas and get rich.... I don't even know why you have a real job (assuming you do) when you get such amazing info like "St. John's can't shoot"..... and then are off by about 20 points and claim a victory....lol. If you consider it a great ability to predict that St. John's can't shoot, well, I don't know what to tell you......Then you said UNC vs Virginia would be 88-76, but it was 83-61....wow...so close....NOT. You were off by 15 points for Virginia....yeah, that's remarkably accurate....

I have yet to see you mention a single "key to victory" that isn't directly related to some stupid stat. I've not seen you make a single comment on what some player is doing wrong that is hurting his team. You have not once shown me any ability to watch a game and tell me what's going wrong......nope....none.

I'll stick to watching games and understanding what's going on....I don't need to go to any .com to know what I saw.....

I could have the exact same basketball intelligence as you by reading Ken Pom....congrats. You are an elite basketball mind.

And you won't come on the radio cause you know you'll sound like an idiot......I got no problem saying I don't predict scores cause only idiots think that stats can give them any real insight. My joy in basketball is not predicting what scores will be....but understanding what needs to happen for EITHER team to win.....and in most games, any team can win....

mm
 
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#264
#264
Marc Maggard said:
Why waste your amazing ability on me..... why not go to vegas and get rich.... I don't even know why you have a real job (assuming you do) when you get such amazing info like "St. John's can't shoot"..... and then are off by about 20 points and claim a victory....lol. If you consider it a great ability to predict that St. John's can't shoot, well, I don't know what to tell you......Then you said UNC vs Virginia would be 88-76, but it was 83-61....wow...so close....NOT. You were off by 15 points for Virginia....yeah, that's remarkably accurate....

I have yet to see you mention a single "key to victory" that isn't directly related to some stupid stat. I've not seen you make a single comment on what some player is doing wrong that is hurting his team. You have not once shown me any ability to watch a game and tell me what's going wrong......nope....none.

I'll stick to watching games and understanding what's going on....I don't need to go to any .com to know what I saw.....

I could have the exact same basketball intelligence as you by reading Ken Pom....congrats. You are an elite basketball mind.

And you won't come on the radio cause you know you'll sound like an idiot......I got no problem saying I don't predict scores cause only idiots think that stats can give them any real insight. My joy in basketball is not predicting what scores will be....but understanding what needs to happen for EITHER team to win.....and in most games, any team can win....

mm
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Believe you me, I do quite well in the 'vegas' regard:)

And I'm not 'wasting' anything, I can just as easily pick games against you and also pick those games elsewhere...ya know, two things at once...watching and tracking..that kinda thing. It's easy, try it.

If you don't understand that a team who fails to steal the ball playing a team that is expert at protecting cannot be changed into a 'key' that somehow avoids that nearly 99% success rate, then I guess keep reading "box out", "corner trapping in the 2-3", "1-3-1 cutters", "carolina breaks" and all that other stuff that is readily apparent to anyone who knows basics anyway.

If you wanna change the 'picking strategy', we can pick a game and discuss it in-depth, and I'll use numbers and strategy as pregame and you can use just strategy. BUt I guess that would bore the both of us, though I'm game for the sake of just basic proof.

Stats basically say "any team can win, but here is how likely that 'can' really is"...yes, just like how matchups do the exact same.

My joy in basketball is multifold and takes everything that is meaningful into account, not just who is gonna win, though that too. But like your buddy hatvol says, the scoreboard is really all that matters. Or maybe you disagree with him, who knows.

It would be idiotic to go on a radio show that obviously has a clear agenda from the get-go, I mean seriously consider how silly that offer is except to a rube.

Great article in the Atlantic Monthly about the one-sided and 'fixed' nature of talk radio and how it has to be that way b/c it is about entertainment rather than any kind of real, speakable truth. It's about zeigler though, but don't be put off, he's simply the catalyst for the article's main points.

Ultimately a great article about talkradio itself though, and it's linked here for you: Host - The Atlantic (April 2005)

(seriously, just read it anyway if radio is one of your jobs, it's amazing)
 
#266
#266
Ya it's pretty dull at this point, and doubtless no one else is really reading the thread at this point, so I'll do the others a favour and only respond to MM in PMs, and if you have anything left to reply just shoot it off in a private message, otherwise it's probably fair to the boarders to just let this thing die instead of carrying out a 1-on-1 discussion in a thread.
 
#270
#270
but it's a huge PiA from a cell phone, where I can't just click to the bottom. If someone knows how, let me know.
 
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