Breakdown tn vs kentucky (merged)

#276
#276
hatvol96 said:
No, the glut of dumb fans comes from math geeks who couldn't intelligently fill out a scouting report to save their lives, so they throw together a bunch of mundane numbers in a pathetic attempt to fool people into thinking they know the first damn thing about basketball.
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Hey, I resemble that remark. I am one of those math geeks(master's in math and teacher of collegiate mathematics). :)


Still working on some probabilities. What is the probability that the Vols win in Rupp, given that Meeks scores:

(i) 20 or below
(ii) 21-30
(iii) 31-40
(iv) 41-50
 
#281
#281
lidderer said:
I'm sure they'll turn it over a lot vs Auburn and someone stupid will say "oh no, kentucky has regressed again, making dumb decisions!" when really the same old story is being played out just as expected, but this time against a good D.
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Thanks for the thread bump guys
 
#282
#282
lidderer said:
Thanks for the thread bump guys
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Jesus....what a MO.

I suppose Auburn's great D was the reason Porter dribbled it off his knee, flubbed it off his hand and Fumbled a handoff.....all with no defensive pressure anywhere near him.

Obviously better D's create TO's, but UK always has 8 self inflicted when normal teams have only a few....that's been the point forever, but you don't know anything about hoops unless it's in percentage form.

Go back to your stats....it's all you know.

mm
 
#283
#283
Marc Maggard said:
Jesus....what a MO.

I suppose Auburn's great D was the reason Porter dribbled it off his knee, flubbed it off his hand and Fumbled a handoff.....all with no defensive pressure anywhere near him.

Obviously better D's create TO's, but UK always has 8 self inflicted when normal teams have only a few....that's been the point forever, but you don't know anything about hoops unless it's in percentage form.

Go back to your stats....it's all you know.

mm
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give it a rest, goofy. Everything I've said has panned out, and your whole point has been for nought. I said that it's a trend that is irrelevant in how it comes about because they will do the same thing regardless the whole year, due to huge and varied factors.

In fact I just quoted a prediction about how they'd do just that thing against auburn, which your pal hat laughed off with some pizza joke as though I were the goon, and then....voila, it happened.

But please, keep saying things like "durrr, uh, um, er, you dun no anyting! GRRRRR! I WIN!!!", cause it's bringing the sweet lols.
 
#284
#284
Also this is golden:

Lidderer wrote:
I'm sure they'll turn it over a lot vs Auburn and someone stupid will say "oh no, kentucky has regressed again, making dumb decisions!"
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mm wrote:
I suppose Auburn's great D was the reason Porter dribbled it off his knee, flubbed it off his hand and Fumbled a handoff.....
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seriously, whoever bumped it: good stuff
 
#285
#285
lidderer said:
give it a rest, goofy. Everything I've said has panned out, and your whole point has been for nought. I said that it's a trend that is irrelevant in how it comes about because they will do the same thing regardless the whole year, due to huge and varied factors.

In fact I just quoted a prediction about how they'd do just that thing against auburn, which your pal hat laughed off with some pizza joke as though I were the goon, and then....voila, it happened.

But please, keep saying things like "durrr, uh, um, er, you dun no anyting! GRRRRR! I WIN!!!", cause it's bringing the sweet lols.
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I simply said Auburn is in no way a good defensive team, which they aren't.
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#286
#286
hatvol96 said:
I simply said Auburn is in no way a good defensive team, which they aren't.
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Ya we agreed they're nothing special, but I still think their schemes led to a lot of TOs--to the detriment of other things(namely the final tally)--and that was simply the point I was making against that mm dude: that teams which force TOs will undoubtedly due so vs ky, and not simply b/c of something that is wholly ky's fault, ie dumb decisions, aka this thread's last eleven page's claim.
 
#287
#287
lidderer said:
give it a rest, goofy. Everything I've said has panned out, and your whole point has been for nought. I said that it's a trend that is irrelevant in how it comes about because they will do the same thing regardless the whole year, due to huge and varied factors.

In fact I just quoted a prediction about how they'd do just that thing against auburn, which your pal hat laughed off with some pizza joke as though I were the goon, and then....voila, it happened.

But please, keep saying things like "durrr, uh, um, er, you dun no anyting! GRRRRR! I WIN!!!", cause it's bringing the sweet lols.
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The funny part is you STILL have no idea the context of the discussion.

Nobody ever made any claim that the TO's were going to be corrected....I just said that they had recently improved the unforced ones. Additionally, the entire reason for the discussion in the first place was about a press creating TO's against UK, which has never been the case (not that you'd know cause stats don't tell you how the TO's happen).

Congrats on predicting that a team that forces more TO's will get more TO's than a team that doesn't. It's amazing what a brilliant basketball mind you are!:crazy:

mm
 
#288
#288
lidderer said:
Ya we agreed they're nothing special, but I still think their schemes led to a lot of TOs--to the detriment of other things(namely the final tally)--and that was simply the point I was making against that mm dude: that teams which force TOs will undoubtedly due so vs ky, and not simply b/c of something that is wholly ky's fault, ie dumb decisions, aka this thread's last eleven page's claim.
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I don't think that's Marc's point. He's saying Kentucky commits more unforced turnovers than the average team.
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#289
#289
lidderer said:
Ya we agreed they're nothing special, but I still think their schemes led to a lot of TOs--to the detriment of other things(namely the final tally)--and that was simply the point I was making against that mm dude: that teams which force TOs will undoubtedly due so vs ky, and not simply b/c of something that is wholly ky's fault, ie dumb decisions, aka this thread's last eleven page's claim.
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wow. I'm amazed at your inabilty to comprehend.

Yes.... a team that forces TO's will cause the opposing team to turn the ball over more than normal. Who was ever debating that point.

You didn't even see the game. Why are you even claiming to know how those TO's came about.

THe point is and always has been that you don't know hoops at all.... you just read stats.

mm
 
#290
#290
hatvol96 said:
I don't think that's Marc's point. He's saying Kentucky commits more unforced turnovers than the average team.
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He's been told that 100 times and he still doesn't get it..... cause there are not stats for it.:banghead2:

mm
 
#291
#291
hatvol96 said:
I don't think that's Marc's point. He's saying Kentucky commits more unforced turnovers than the average team.
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Ya I understand his point, and I think my main contention all along has been that such a distinction is irrelevant because such a tendency is hardly ever--if at all--corrected over the course of a given year, and espeicially so when it occurs at the staggering rate of 322nd in the league by mid-season.

I only meant to say that his implication of improvement, or a possibility thereof, was foolish, and unlikely(to a very large degree) to occur. Which renders the observation useless, and the distinction irrelevant.
 
#293
#293
Marc Maggard said:
The funny part is you STILL have no idea the context of the discussion.

Nobody ever made any claim that the TO's were going to be corrected....I just said that they had recently improved the unforced ones. Additionally, the entire reason for the discussion in the first place was about a press creating TO's against UK, which has never been the case (not that you'd know cause stats don't tell you how the TO's happen).

Congrats on predicting that a team that forces more TO's will get more TO's than a team that doesn't. It's amazing what a brilliant basketball mind you are!:crazy:

mm
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actually, you quite strongly hinted at possible correction--don't make me bring up that vapid quote again.

I'd deal with the rest but I've done so prior and it is boring.
 
#294
#294
Could you people stop with all the words and post some freaking stats so we can figure out which way is up?
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#295
#295
Marc Maggard said:
wow. I'm amazed at your inabilty to comprehend.

Yes.... a team that forces TO's will cause the opposing team to turn the ball over more than normal. Who was ever debating that point.

You didn't even see the game. Why are you even claiming to know how those TO's came about.

THe point is and always has been that you don't know hoops at all.... you just read stats.

mm
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No, the point wasn't that simple. It was: teams that force TOs fare incredibly poorly vs equivalently ranked(or whatever term is not too stats-y for ya) teams at protection. Kentucky, being almost mindbogglingly bad at the latter, and for more nuanced reasons than simply "dude goofed a hand-off! doh!", will suffer moreso than most against decent competition, not just simply b/c they are facing a good TO-inducing squad.

The rest of the inferences you can make should be clear, but I'm guessing you'll just use the opportunity to miss the point again and use one of those emoticons you're so fond of, plus give or take 3 comically empty putdowns.

zzz, here's hoping this thread ends now
 
#296
#296
Marc Maggard said:
He's been told that 100 times and he still doesn't get it..... cause there are not stats for it.:banghead2:

mm
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Originally Posted by Marc Maggard


In Meeks favor

Meeks takes 35% of UK's shots / Tyler is at 25%
Meeks plays 83% of game / Tyler plays 77.8%
29% of UK's plays end in a positive play by Meeks / Tyler end 26%
Meeks ranks 110th in nation in offensive efficiency / Tyler is 27th (how good team is when you are on court)
Meeks effective FG% is 59% (adjusted for 3's) / Tyler's is 49%
Meeks shoots 90% from the line / Tyler shoots 75%
Meeks shoots nearly 53% from 2 / Tyler is at 50%
Meeks shoots 44% from 3 / Tyler is at just under 27%
Meeks scores 1.56 points per shot / Tyler scores 1.42 per shot
Meeks averages nearly 26 ppg (4th in nation) / Tyler is nearly 18 (68th in nation)
Meeks averages 1.5 steals pg / Tyler is at .8 pg


In Tyler's favor

Tyler gets 6% of offensive boards and 13.5% of defensive boards / Meeks gets 2.5% and 9% (not bad for a 2g)
Tyler gets twice as many available assists as Meeks does
Tyler turns the ball over 15% of the time he's on the court / Meeks is at 17%
Tyler draws 6.7 fouls per 40min / Meeks draws 6.2 per 40Originally Posted by Marc Maggard
I think most people outside of UK or UT would absolutely say that Meeks is more valuable to his team than Smith is to UT.

It has little to do with Tyler's skill, but more to do with role.

In Meeks favor

Meeks takes 35% of UK's shots / Tyler is at 25%
Meeks plays 83% of game / Tyler plays 77.8%
29% of UK's plays end in a positive play by Meeks / Tyler end 26%
Meeks ranks 110th in nation in offensive efficiency / Tyler is 27th (how good team is when you are on court)
Meeks effective FG% is 59% (adjusted for 3's) / Tyler's is 49%
Meeks shoots 90% from the line / Tyler shoots 75%
Meeks shoots nearly 53% from 2 / Tyler is at 50%
Meeks shoots 44% from 3 / Tyler is at just under 27%
Meeks scores 1.56 points per shot / Tyler scores 1.42 per shot
Meeks averages nearly 26 ppg (4th in nation) / Tyler is nearly 18 (68th in nation)
Meeks averages 1.5 steals pg / Tyler is at .8 pg


In Tyler's favor

Tyler gets 6% of offensive boards and 13.5% of defensive boards / Meeks gets 2.5% and 9% (not bad for a 2g)
Tyler gets twice as many available assists as Meeks does
Tyler turns the ball over 15% of the time he's on the court / Meeks is at 17%
Tyler draws 6.7 fouls per 40min / Meeks draws 6.2 per 40
Click to expand...

"ok stats boy" takes on a helluva ring now
 
#298
#298
lidderer said:
Ya I understand his point, and I think my main contention all along has been that such a distinction is irrelevant because such a tendency is hardly ever--if at all--corrected over the course of a given year, and espeicially so when it occurs at the staggering rate of 322nd in the league by mid-season.

I only meant to say that his implication of improvement, or a possibility thereof, was foolish, and unlikely(to a very large degree) to occur. Which renders the observation useless, and the distinction irrelevant.
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Dude.... you are reinventing the discussion.

The ENTIRE POINT OF THE DISCUSSION was never that something was going to be easy to correct. YOU brought that stuff into it with your first reply to me.

The ENTIRE POINT was that UT's full court press was not going to be any more effective at creating TO's against UK as it would be against any other team.

The point was that UK doesn't get the ball stolen from the press....they give it to you in half court. The distinction is ENTIRELY relevant to the context of the discussion.... U just don't understand it.

Good lord man, you are super thick.

mm
 
#299
#299
lidderer said:
actually, you quite strongly hinted at possible correction--don't make me bring up that vapid quote again.

I'd deal with the rest but I've done so prior and it is boring.
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not at all. I was responding to your silly claim that things are not correctable mid season, which is ridiculous..... teams improve in MANY areas all through the year. :crazy:

mm
 
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