CFP Scenarios (merged)

#76
#76
counterdevotee said:
Genuine question, as long as we win out after this horrific loss, what scenario gets us in? Anyone have a solid explanation?
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Bama loss, tcu or Clemson loss; Ohio st / Mich one of them will take care of the other so we’ll get help there.. maybe 1 more Oregon loss to be safe…
 
#77
#77
Ernest T. Vol said:
Don't we need LSU to win tonight to knock Bama out so they wont have chance to beat GA in the SEC championship game?
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I think Bama getting their second loss in the sec championship game makes our schedule look better. Because no one is going to mistake LSU for a top 5 win. Bama on the other hand…
 
#78
#78
WingT said:
Oregon wins out and is in, same with TCU


Bama needs to win out and lose to uga, then some more help....posts with bama losing only hurt us till the SEC champ game
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Not really. Big 12 and PAC 10 or 12 (whatever its called) won't have a shot at a team in the playoff.

It will be SEC winner, Clemson, OSU or Michigan, SEC Team
 
#79
#79
Who would have predicted we’d be in the playoff conversation at this point of the season? Nobody!

I don’t think there are many scenarios that gets us there now. If we would have played a super close game today and barely lost it would be a different sorry but we didn’t. It’s going to take something crazy now and that’s kinda remote.
 
#82
#82
JMSqb11 said:
Guys, hate to break it to you but quit crying about TCU.... They could very well go 13-0 and they aren't getting into the playoff #4 spot if they continue to win in the ugly manner they are.
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Hate to break it to you, undefeated power 5 conference champs are in
 
#83
#83
JMSqb11 said:
Lol. If Bama is 10-2, our win is still very much a good look. If LSU is 10-2 or 9-3 our win still looks very good.

And quit crying about TCU and Clemson needing a loss. Clemson is going 13-0. TCU is irrelevant
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An undefeated conference champion is not irrelevant. Are you convinced we’d get in over a 13-0 TCU?

Oh St or Michigan is probably in
TCu
Clemson
Georgia

So you tell me, if those teams don’t lose 1, what’s the path? You think we get in over an undefeated team?
 
#85
#85
Bama, Clemson, TCU will have to lose.

Winner of UM/OSU is an automatic bid. UGA is a lock obviously
 
#86
#86
WingT said:
Oregon wins out and is in, same with TCU/Clemson


Bama needs to win out and lose to uga, then some more help....posts with bama losing only hurt us till the SEC champ game
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Georgia, Oh St, Clemson, TCU. A 1 loss Oregon is not getting in without help
 
#87
#87
rackhead said:
Who needs to win or lose for us to make it in? I would love a rematch. I think that #1 got in our heads.
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It is very simple... The 4 playoff spots will be as follows in no certain order:

  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan / Ohio State
  3. Clemson
  4. SEC Team 2
As of now, the 2nd SEC team will be between 11-1 Tennessee, 11-2 LSU or 11-1 Ole Miss.... I include Ole Miss because LSU knocked out Bama.


The best outcome for us is that we stay inside the Top 4 after our loss to #3 UGA today when the new rankings come out on Tuesday I think. If we are still in the Top 4 and win out in normal fashion, there is no way we drop out of the Top 4 for winning our remaining games. Dropping to #4 is always a big deal because Ohio State / Michigan should atleast have 1 ranked, if not both, ahead of us if we drop to #4. If we drop to #5, i feel safe in thinking Michigan and OSU will both be in Top going into their game the last week of the season. Whoever loses that game is out of the playoff hunt. A loss should drop them 2-3 spots atleast.

TCU does not matter. The CFP Committee made it clear their style of winning is poor considering their schedule. TCU simply doesn't have enough quality opponents left on their schedule for wins alone to boost them up the rankings. And if they are still winning against mediocre teams in 1-2 possession margins, the committee won't put them in the playoff for a lopsided game of 1 vs 4.

The only scenario that seriously screws us is the SEC West 11-2 champ winning in Atlanta. At that point, you'd have 12-1 runner up UGA and 11-2 SEC Champ from the West. Both would be in.

We need UGA to go 13-0.

KISS method yall. Keep It Simple Stupid.
 
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#88
#88
Vol8188 said:
An undefeated conference champion is not irrelevant. Are you convinced we’d get in over a 13-0 TCU?

Oh St or Michigan is probably in
TCu
Clemson
Georgia

So you tell me, if those teams don’t lose 1, what’s the path? You think we get in over an undefeated team?
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TCU will not be in the playoff. Even if they go 13-0.
 
#92
#92
I see three Sec trans in playoffs that scenario.Wishgul thinking I know.
 
#93
#93
JMSqb11 said:
13-0 TCU won't be in the playoff. Committee made that clear on Tuesday night. Don't overthink it.
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You realize cincinati has been in the cfb playoff right?


Being undefeated matters, they've said conference champs matter.... think it
 
#95
#95
Vol8188 said:
No they didn’t
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Yes they did. The committee clearly thinks the manner of how TCU is winning games in not good quality considering their opponents. TCU doesn't not enough good teams left on their schedule where simply winning is a boost. They need to be blowing out their opponents and they are struggling to win by 1-2 scores. Committee made it clear.
 
#98
#98
JMSqb11 said:
Yes they did. The committee clearly thinks the manner of how TCU is winning games in not good quality considering their opponents. TCU doesn't not enough good teams left on their schedule where simply winning is a boost. They need to be blowing out their opponents and they are struggling to win by 1-2 scores. Committee made it clear.
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That’s not how any of this works. Any major conference, undefeated championship team will be in unless we were to somehow have 5 of those one year
 
#100
#100
WingT said:
You realize cincinati has been in the cfb playoff right?


Being undefeated matters, they've said conference champs matter.... think it
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Cincy getting in was all politics on letting the little brother in.

Playoff committee won't make the same mistake with a Big 12 or Pac 10 or 12 Team in..... They made it crystal clear with the first rankings. Yall are smoking some serious delusions if you think TCU going 13-0 is a certainty to secure a playoff spot. Not even "a playoff spot" but the #4 spot because there is no chance in hell they will compete for a 2nd or 3rd spot.
 
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