CFP Scenarios (merged)

#102
#102
Vol8188 said:
That’s not how any of this works. Any major conference, undefeated championship team will be in unless we were to somehow have 5 of those one year
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This is exactly how it works. It is why the committee constantly has forced turnover... There are only 2 guarantees with the committee every year and that is the SEC and Big Ten Champs are in the playoff regardless of record. I think it is laughable that people think 13-0 TCU is certainty to make the playoff just because of their record.... There is a reason they got thrown at #7 in the first rankings... . The committee doesn't value their SOS and how they are winning vs weaker opponents.
 
#103
#103
just need to win out and 2 out of 3 among bama, TCU,Clemson to have one additional loss. That may happen tonight and TCU is going to lose eventually this season
 
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#104
#104
JMSqb11 said:
This is exactly how it works. It is why the committee constantly has forced turnover... There are only 2 guarantees with the committee every year and that is the SEC and Big Ten Champs are in the playoff regardless of record. I think it is laughable that people think 13-0 TCU is certainty to make the playoff just because of their record.... There is a reason they got thrown at #7 in the first rankings... . The committee doesn't value their SOS and how they are winning vs weaker opponents.
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I’m excited to bump this in the future
 
#105
#105
volzfanupnorth said:
An absolute miracle. We won't remain in the top 7 after this loss. I bet we fall outside the top 10. We got dominated in every way you can imagine.
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I disagree. It is a 2 score loss to voters who don't even see the game on the road to the defending national champ. Pull for ND and LSU tonight. Hopefully #5.
 
#106
#106
Vol8188 said:
I’m excited to bump this in the future
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I will gladly admit I'm wrong too.... There is a reason why there is never a set precedent on the committee each season...

Simply put and I stand by this, but the committee doesn't value TCU's record and how their winning vs their schedule. Simpol
 
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#107
#107
The Vols might have had a shot if they played GA close...IMO TN can't jump any undefeated team based on the way TN lost.
 
#109
#109
JMSqb11 said:
It is very simple... The 4 playoff spots will be as follows in no certain order:

  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan / Ohio State
  3. Clemson
  4. SEC Team 2
As of now, the 2nd SEC team will be between 11-1 Tennessee, 11-1 Bama or 11-1 Ole Miss.... I include Ole Miss because Bama will not lose tonight to LSU.


The best outcome for us is that we stay inside the Top 4 after our loss to #3 UGA today when the new rankings come out on Tuesday I think. If we are still in the Top 4 and win out in normal fashion, there is no way we drop out of the Top 4 for winning our remaining games. Dropping to #4 is always a big deal because Ohio State / Michigan should atleast have 1 ranked, if not both, ahead of us if we drop to #4. If we drop to #5, i feel safe in thinking Michigan and OSU will both be in Top going into their game the last week of the season. Whoever loses that game is out of the playoff hunt. A loss should drop them 2-3 spots atleast.

TCU does not matter. The CFP Committee made it clear their style of winning is poor considering their schedule. TCU simply doesn't have enough quality opponents left on their schedule for wins alone to boost them up the rankings. And if they are still winning against mediocre teams in 1-2 possession margins, the committee won't put them in the playoff for a lopsided game of 1 vs 4.

The only scenario that seriously screws us is the SEC West 11-1 champ winning in Atlanta. At that point, you'd have 12-1 runner up UGA and 12-1 SEC Champ from the West. Both would be in.

We need UGA to go 13-0.

KISS method yall. Keep It Simple Stupid.
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@Boston Vol see above for my reasoning on our earlier convo
 
#112
#112
Be fun but we're not play off caliber yet. We were exposed badly today. Bring on the hate. Is what it is!
 
#113
#113
vols-1 said:
The Vols might have had a shot if they played GA close...IMO TN can't jump any undefeated team based on the way TN lost.
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You’re wrongly assuming there will be 4 undefeated teams. We likely won’t need to jump an undefeated team
 
#115
#115
TCU, Clemson lose and either Michigan or Ohio St loser clears a spot. Then its a matter if Bama loses tonight against LSU or SEC Championship game. We dont want them winning out and taking SEC. As for Pac 12 champion thats a wild card. USC, Oregon and UCLA its hard to say how a 1 loss Pac 12 champion would look compared to a 11-1 SEC team that was handled slightly less than UGA handled Oregon. Thats a lot to ask in such a short time.

9 games into a season we are running out of time to get help. I feel like Sugar Bowl is in our future which will sting a bit but light-years better than we expected.
 
#117
#117
I would say there are a bunch of different scenarios that have varying probabilities of TN ending up in the playoffs. I think the scenario that yields the best result for TN (and is also the least likely) is (not in order):

1. Alabama loses to LSU tonight;
2. GA wins SECG
3. TN wins out
4. TCU loses to TX
5. OSU loses to MI
6. Clemson loses to ND
7. MI losses to IL

All of that happens and TN should be a lock to get in, but all of that doesn’t necessarily need to happy in order for TN to have a chance. The most important pieces are likely GA winning out, Alabama taking a second loss somewhere, TN winning out, and one of the other lossless teams dropping a game.
 
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#118
#118
JMSqb11 said:
They don't have too but would be helpful. Honestly, I think Clemson is a lock to go 13-0.

Winner of Michigan / Ohio State will go 13-0

SEC will have 2 teams in the playoff and it will be as such:

13-0 UGA and 11-1 Tennessee OR 12-1 UGA and 12-1 Bama or Ole Miss (Disclaimer: I think there is no chance LSU wins tonight)
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Totally agree
 
#119
#119
VOLS INC. said:
Bama wins out
Ga wins out
Bama beats GA in the SEC chip

They both get in. We are out.

LSU beats Bama. We win out.

No way either of these 2 loss teams jump us.
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They would if LSU wins in Atlanta.

UGA is locked to go the playoff. Whoever wins the SEC title goes to playoff. Whether that is 11-1 Bama, 11-1 Ole Miss, or 10-2 LSU.

We have to have UGA go 13-0 for us to stay in the playoff. If they go to atlanta and lose to the west, UGA and the SEC West team they lose to are in, regardless of 1 or 2 losses aka a potential 11-2 SEC Champ LSU
 
#120
#120
Voltopia said:
Tennessee's out. Ohio State/Michigan will get at least 1, UGA will get 1, Clemson will get 1 unless they lose (but they're in the ACC so they won't lose), and that leaves one slot. That final slot's gonna go to either undefeated TCU, a one-loss Alabama that wins the SECCG, or the loser of Michigan-Ohio State.

JMSqb11 said:
Idk, if i had my preferred outcome, I'd take Bama winning tonight and then losing to Ole Miss next week for UGA vs Ole Miss in Atlanta which should be a very likely UGA victory.
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Why not LSU over Bama? Bama with 2 losses would be out of the picture.

Tennessee losing in the way it did to UGA is gonna drop them into that pool but with TCU and Clemson being undefeated, it's just not going to happen.
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#121
#121
MRobVFL said:
Clemson needs to lose, Bama needs another lose. Potentially a TCU loss. Even if all that happens we we'd still have to play Georgia again to win a championship. It's been a nice season but unfortunately all we get now is a chance at 11-1.
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Lol. It’s been a nice season? All we g egg now is 11-1??? Jesus Christ. You make it sound like we are a team that’s been winning 12 games a year and going 11-1 is a let down. Get real. This season has been BEYOND spectacular. Nobody had us winning the games we have.
 
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#122
#122

I guess it boils down to if you think we drop so far down the rankings due to a loss to #3, I think you are not being realistic.

We were #1 and lost to #3..... There is no way or reasonable argument that we would drop more than 4 spots aka 1 spot out of the playoff for losing to #3. Especially when the first two spots on the outside looking in includes a team we beat (Bama).
 
#123
#123
MRobVFL said:
Clemson needs to lose, Bama needs another lose. Potentially a TCU loss. Even if all that happens we we'd still have to play Georgia again to win a championship. It's been a nice season but unfortunately all we get now is a chance at 11-1.
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The more I think about it, we should give Heupel a pay cut for a measly 11-1 finish.
 
#125
#125
JMSqb11 said:
@Boston Vol see above for my reasoning on our earlier convo
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I agree with pretty much everything that you posted. That’s why I don’t think it matters if Tennessee is ranked 5th, 6th, or when 7th on Tuesday. If UGA wins out, every other SEC team besides Tennessee would have 2 losses. The loser of Mich/OSU isn’t getting in over an 11-1 Tennessee. So as long as either TCU or Clemson lose a game, there’s going to be one open spot. The only wildcard is Oregon. What does the committee thinking them despite the opening week loss to UGA. I still think Tennessee would have a stronger resume and would likely get the nod.
 
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