CFP Scenarios (merged)

[counterdevotee]

It is very simple... The 4 playoff spots will be as follows in no certain order:

1. Georgia
2. Michigan / Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. SEC Team 2

As of now, the 2nd SEC team will be between 11-1 Tennessee, 11-1 Bama or 11-1 Ole Miss.... I include Ole Miss because Bama will not lose tonight to LSU.


The best outcome for us is that we stay inside the Top 4 after our loss to #3 UGA today when the new rankings come out on Tuesday I think. If we are still in the Top 4 and win out in normal fashion, there is no way we drop out of the Top 4 for winning our remaining games. Dropping to #4 is always a big deal because Ohio State / Michigan should atleast have 1 ranked, if not both, ahead of us if we drop to #4. If we drop to #5, i feel safe in thinking Michigan and OSU will both be in Top going into their game the last week of the season. Whoever loses that game is out of the playoff hunt. A loss should drop them 2-3 spots atleast.

TCU does not matter. The CFP Committee made it clear their style of winning is poor considering their schedule. TCU simply doesn't have enough quality opponents left on their schedule for wins alone to boost them up the rankings. And if they are still winning against mediocre teams in 1-2 possession margins, the committee won't put them in the playoff for a lopsided game of 1 vs 4.

The only scenario that seriously screws us is the SEC West 11-1 champ winning in Atlanta. At that point, you'd have 12-1 runner up UGA and 12-1 SEC Champ from the West. Both would be in.

We need UGA to go 13-0.

KISS method yall. Keep It Simple Stupid.

This is exactly what I made this thread for. Thank you.

 

[JMSqb11]

Wrong. If TCU wins out they will be in.

The CFP says otherwise... TCU does do considering they beat the heavyweights from Lubbock by a paltry 10 points. TCU will have a guaranteed 2 loss or worse opponent for the rest of their schedule. Winning by 10-14 points vs them will simply not boost them over a 1 loss SEC team who may or may not be in Atlanta

 

[tnburban]

No. Just no.

What's your solution? One loss Oregon is getting in ahead of TN because one loss Oregon would win the PAC12 title which you'll say is meaningless, but ESPN and the media is in love with Bo Nix and Oregon right now.

And UGA has to win out, that's a given

And Clemson with one loss but still wins the ACC title game would get in because of legacy

And an undefeated TCU gets in over an 11-1 UT team all day long.

So what's the "No. Just No." argument?

 

[JMSqb11]

I agree with pretty much everything that you posted. That’s why I don’t think it matters if Tennessee is ranked 5th, 6th, or when 7th on Tuesday. If UGA wins out, every other SEC team besides Tennessee would have 2 losses. The loser of Mich/OSU isn’t getting in over an 11-1 Tennessee. So as long as either TCU or Clemson lose a game, there’s going to be one open spot. The only wildcard is Oregon. What does the committee thinking them despite the opening week loss to UGA. I still think Tennessee would have a stronger resume and would likely get the nod.

Not to make us look bad, but UGA going 13-0 would mean a 12-1 Oregon team would rematch them. Would the CFP give that rematch? I don't think so. Atleast our ass whipping from UGA was 14 points compared to Oregon's 46

 

[Proud Army Wife]

I don’t think we’re ready for the play-offs.

 

[JMSqb11]

What's your solution? One loss Oregon is getting in ahead of TN because one loss Oregon would win the PAC12 title which you'll say is meaningless, but ESPN and the media is in love with Bo Nix and Oregon right now.

And UGA has to win out, that's a given

And Clemson with one loss but still wins the ACC title game would get in because of legacy

And an undefeated TCU gets in over an 11-1 UT team all day long.

So what's the "No. Just No." argument?

I know the battered vol syndrome forces you to believe this but this is not realistic

 

[Jaxon_Vol2017]

What's your solution? One loss Oregon is getting in ahead of TN because one loss Oregon would win the PAC12 title which you'll say is meaningless, but ESPN and the media is in love with Bo Nix and Oregon right now.

And UGA has to win out, that's a given

And Clemson with one loss but still wins the ACC title game would get in because of legacy

And an undefeated TCU gets in over an 11-1 UT team all day long.

So what's the "No. Just No." argument?

We get in above any one loss team. Period. As long as we win out.

 

[JMSqb11]

I don’t think we’re ready for the play-offs.

Hater!

 

[WingT]

An undefeated power 5 champ is in over any one loss non conference champ..... thats how it will be till that rule cant happen(5 undefeateted power 5 champs)

No matter how they win, if they win they're in

 

[MRobVFL]

Lol. It’s been a nice season? All we g egg now is 11-1??? Jesus Christ. You make it sound like we are a team that’s been winning 12 games a year and going 11-1 is a let down. Get real. This season has been BEYOND spectacular. Nobody had us winning the games we have.

The more I think about it, we should give Heupel a pay cut for a measly 11-1 finish.

I guess you all didn't see my follow up post. I'm not saying 11-1 is awful. I'm just saying it's unfortunate that for as good as we have been in this amazing season... we most likely will have to watch a a Clemson or TCU or Michigan get the chance to play for a national championship because we had a bad day against the defending national champions. We deserve the opportunity but we probably will not get it because their will be a few teams "undefeated" against trash teams.

 

[JMSqb11]

An undefeated power 5 champ is in over any one loss non comference champ..... thats how it will be till that rule cant happen(5 undefeateted power 5 champs)

No motter how they win, if they win they're in

13-0 TCU will make you "hold your beer"....

Yall are delusional if you think a 13-0 TCU gets in if they continue to win in the manner they are.

 

[Vol8188]

Clemson needs to lose, Bama needs another lose. Potentially a TCU loss. Even if all that happens we we'd still have to play Georgia again to win a championship. It's been a nice season but unfortunately all we get now is a chance at 11-1.

Just 12-1 in year two, that’s just terrible

 

[JMSqb11]

I guess you all didn't see my follow up post. I'm not saying 11-1 is awful. I'm just saying it's unfortunate that for as good as we have been in this amazing season... we most likely will have to watch a a Clemson or TCU or Michigan get the chance to play for a national championship because we had a bad day against the defending national champions. We deserve the opportunity but we probably will not get it because their will be a few teams "undefeated" against trash teams.

If you come for @BigOrangeTrain , you are coming for me. Quit crying!

And quit bringing up TCU. They are irrelevant to our playoff chances.

 

[Proud Army Wife]

Hater!

Lol not in the least, but realistically TN is toast if they bring that poor performance on offense.

 

[kxtop]

Genuine question, as long as we win out after this horrific loss, what scenario gets us in? Anyone have a solid explanation?

Vols win out convincingly...but Clemson loosing would help

 

[Enki_Amenra]

We lost by 14 to the #1 team. Win out and see what happens in the SECCG. Very good possibility we get in, we just don't control our destiny anymore.

 

[Kas232323]

They would if LSU wins in Atlanta.

UGA is locked to go the playoff. Whoever wins the SEC title goes to playoff. Whether that is 11-1 Bama, 11-1 Ole Miss, or 10-2 LSU.

We have to have UGA go 13-0 for us to stay in the playoff. If they go to atlanta and lose to the west, UGA and the SEC West team they lose to are in, regardless of 1 or 2 losses aka a potential 11-2 SEC Champ LSU

I guarantee LSU would not get in ahead of us with 2 losses. Not a chance. We destroyed them at home.

 

[JMSqb11]

Guys, answer me this....

If UGA loses in Atlanta to say Ole Miss or Bama and we have two 12-1 SEC teams, are they both going to the playoff?

If you say yes, why the hell do you keep worrying and getting your blood pressure up on TCU...... I don't get it. If you think it is a guarantee that a 13-0 TCU is a lock for the playoff regardless of the other conference title games, why are we also saying that that a UGA team that finishes the regular season at 12-0 is a lock for the playoff?

This isn't hard. The CFP doesn't value TCU's schedule or record.... If they did the chance of UGA making the playoff with a loss in Atlanta would be shut down immediately. Yet we still talk about them....

 

[MRobVFL]

If you come for @BigOrangeTrain , you are coming for me. Quit crying!

And quit bringing up TCU. They are irrelevant to our playoff chances.

I guess you're drunk. I'm not "coming" for anyone lol I'm rationally stating that I believe we will not make the playoff with one loss, even though we deserve to.

Anyhow, don't feel like arguing with ignorance so I'm just gonna add you to my block list.

 

[Vol in Tears]

Start by being LSU and Notre Dame fans tonight. We'll need chaos on our side from here on out.

 

[JMSqb11]

I guarantee LSU would not get in ahead of us with 2 losses. Not a chance. We destroyed them at home.

If LSU was the SEC champ and we are at 11-1, the CFP would take 12-1 UGA and 11-2 LSU..... There is no scenario where the eventual SEC champ starts in Top 10 of first CFP rankings and misses the playoff with 2 losses.

3 losses? Sure. But if LSU who is now 10th wins the SEC, that means 3 top ten wins (Ole Miss, Bama, and UGA) in final 7 games, they would most certainly be in the playoff over us.

The SEC champ with 0,1, or 2 losses would always get in.

 

[JMSqb11]

I guess you're drunk. I'm not "coming" for anyone lol I'm rationally stating that I believe we will not make the playoff with one loss, even though we deserve to.

Anyhow, don't feel like arguing with ignorance so I'm just gonna add you to my block list.

I'm quite sober.

 

[Kas232323]

If LSU was the SEC champ and we are at 11-1, the CFP would take 12-1 UGA and 11-2 LSU..... There is no scenario where the eventual SEC champ starts in Top 10 of first CFP rankings and misses the playoff with 2 losses.

3 losses? Sure. But if LSU who is now 10th wins the SEC, that means 3 top ten wins (Ole Miss, Bama, and UGA) in final 7 games, they would most certainly be in the playoff over us.

The SEC champ with 0,1, or 2 losses would always get in.

Nope. But let’s be real. Lsu wouldn’t beat Georgia in Atlanta. And there are no guarantees ga beats miss st and Kentucky on the road.

 

[Zues1]

Ain't happening

 

[JMSqb11]

Nope

So say LSU wins the SEC title... You are saying that the SEC would get an at large team over the conference champ would would very well likely be in the Top 6 when they play the #1 ranked team in Atlanta? LOL.