Commodity shortages

#726
#726
Velo Vol said:
RE: oil

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Yeah, but when nobody is travelling - even locally, what do you do with oil production once the repositories are filled. This is very simple calculus having to do with inflow and outflow. Joe was the one in office when the inflow/outflow balance changed - if you really want to lay it at the feet of a president. We could go back to who was in charge when the Chinese first started playing at weaponizing a virus in bat poop, and probably be more on track with the real problem.
 
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#727
#727
AM64 said:
There's a different issue, too. What do you do with the unemployed truck drivers? Autonomous trucks aren't consumers, and neither are truckers without income. This is one of the big problems of automation and the thought that people shouldn't be doing the menial, mundane, or repetitive tasks. How do you pay people to do nothing because their jobs were replaced by machines?
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In the mid 80's my company replaced approximately 75 employees and I couldn't tell you how many fork lifts and overhead cranes of various types with automated versions of the same for a mid plant inventory area. It took about $50M and a lot of time, but we made it happen. I couldn't say how much money was saved by this equipment, I'm guessing hundreds of millions over the years and the displaced employees were absorbed and sent elsewhere in the plant and used to backfill people as they retired. Yeah, automation doesn't always work, but it also doesn't get sleepy, call in sick (not often), misplace parts and do things that humans do wrong.
 
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#728
#728
AM64 said:
Is it really a win, or is it just change for change sake? Is replacing human labor with automation truly a win - idle hands and all? Remember, this is coming from an engineer - the kind of people who build and advance technology. There's a different economic question that we keep ignoring - I suppose you could call it planned obsolescence of the human kind, and it doesn't make much sense.
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It’s not change for change sake. The economics and other considerations (working holidays, pulling 24 hour shifts) of managing the work force is a huge factor. Also, 4,000-5,000 currently die annually in trucking accidents. Reduced insurance costs add to the economics.
 
#729
#729
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Same thing that has happened to buggy whip production line workers and long distance switchboard operators.

There won’t be a switch flipped. It will be a gradual transition. Right now there is an under supply of drivers. Local drivers will still be needed. Those that can’t drive can be coders.
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There's an unfortunate fact that we somehow have to recognize and deal with. In an expanding population, you can't have a declining workforce, and large scale automation does just that. There's a balance that has to be met; and how you control that is beyond me; but if you eliminate whole lines of work and don't create new industries to gainfully employ those who no longer have jobs, that's a problem. A lot has to do with a rush to the future and the thought that automation can replace people, but what do those replaced people become ... and who feeds them? Is it a new era of socialism where machines are the workers and their income is redistributed to the non worker human? If so, to what end? The industrial revolution created human jobs and maybe more importantly consumers that generated demand for the products - a cyclic and symbiotic relationship. I can't see large scale automation as a player in that process.
 
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#730
#730
hog88 said:
What do we do with all the humans without the skills to maintain the machines doing the jobs they used to do? Yes, yes I know "what did the people that made the buggies do after we invented cars" but it's a serious question. If you run the manufacturing out of the country where do the unskilled go to work?
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Come up with more stuff, services for people to consume.

Think of all the entertainment options we have now that didn't exist 50 years ago.
 
#732
#732
Velo Vol said:
Come up with more stuff, services for people to consume.

Think of all the entertainment options we have now that didn't exist 50 years ago.
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Where do the consumers who buy and use those entertaining devices to fill idle time find the income that used to be derived from their working but now idle time? There are a lot more game players than game designers.
 
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#733
#733
I'm all for automation and efficiency but the question about the people is a serious one. It wouldn't be inconceivable to automate yourself out of business.
 
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#734
#734
AM64 said:
Where do the consumers who buy and use those entertaining devices to fill idle time find the income that used to be derived from their working but now idle time? There are a lot more game players than game designers.
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It's not a painless process, but once upon a time 90% of Americans were farmers, and somehow we all found something else to do.
 
#735
#735
AM64 said:
There's an unfortunate fact that we somehow have to recognize and deal with. In an expanding population, you can't have a declining workforce, and large scale automation does just that. There's a balance that has to be met; and how you control that is beyond me; but if you eliminate whole lines of work and don't create new industries to gainfully employ those who no longer have jobs, that's a problem. A lot has to do with a rush to the future and the thought that automation can replace people, but what do those replaced people become ... and who feeds them? Is it a new era of socialism where machines are the workers and their income is redistributed to the non worker human? If so, to what end? The industrial revolution created human jobs and maybe more importantly consumers that generated demand for the products - a cyclic and symbiotic relationship. I can't see large scale automation as a player in that process.
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In the long run the manual labor jobs are replaced by people that build and maintain the automated equipment. Granted, the people that get displaced aren't going to be those people, but that is the natural progression of workers.
Now that we are/we have created a generation of everything is computed for them on a cell phone, we're pretty well screwed.
 
#737
#737
Velo Vol said:
It's not a painless process, but once upon a time 90% of Americans were farmers, and somehow we all found something else to do.
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For a while. It takes a lot of people to build a plant, and then those people are no longer needed. Throw in some good labor wasters like wars, and it can work for a while, but it's still a bubble and just a variant on "what goes up, must come down".
 
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#738
#738
VolStrom said:
In the long run the manual labor jobs are replaced by people that build and maintain the automated equipment. Granted, the people that get displaced aren't going to be those people, but that is the natural progression of workers.
Now that we are/we have created a generation of everything is computed for them on a cell phone, we're pretty well screwed.
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It works for a while like lots of short term schemes do, and don't forget we are very much short term thinkers with little thought to the longer term. We employed a lot of hands soldering electronics together and assembling them at one time - not so today. So we built devices that employed people who used to do different things - and then eliminated them. Maybe you can keep coming up with transitory plans and schemes to keep it working, but US the declining US labor participation rates would seem to indicate we are past the tipping point. And it really is worrisome that people used to use brains to do a lot of day to day calculations, but we think that somehow pushing buttons to do the same is an advancement. That same thing goes for physical work and fitness.
 
#739
#739
hog88 said:
What do we do with all the humans without the skills to maintain the machines doing the jobs they used to do? Yes, yes I know "what did the people that made the buggies do after we invented cars" but it's a serious question. If you run the manufacturing out of the country where do the unskilled go to work?
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Learn to code haha.
 
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#740
#740
I have never seen the agriculture segment so tumultuous. Input costs, availability of said inputs including equipment repair parts and the unpredictability of prices for crops and livestock are frankly terrifying.

Fertilizer, fuel, chemicals and medications are all forecast to either be unavailable, short of supply or priced out of reason.

Scary times for the farmer. Scarier for the populace.(at least the few who are not woke wankers).
 
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#741
#741
VolStrom said:
In the long run the manual labor jobs are replaced by people that build and maintain the automated equipment. Granted, the people that get displaced aren't going to be those people, but that is the natural progression of workers.
Now that we are/we have created a generation of everything is computed for them on a cell phone, we're pretty well screwed.
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I've never been able to make that part work. If all the displaced people are still employed and paid at an equivalent rate then the capital cost of the equipment that replaces them makes the total cost of production higher. It's essentially a closed system; I can't decide if the energy use and cost is a wash - in some respects it has to be greater and in others you trade one set of tools for another and may gain by efficiency. Thunder has a good argument about increased need and addressing that with automation, but there's the other corresponding need that has to be considered - wages to make consumerism work. No tickee no laundry. No income - no buy - unless you resort to socialism, which fails in the long run every time. Unfettered and unregulated (meaning monopolistic type activities) capitalism has the means, opportunity, and if you consider eternal quest for profit, the motive to screw itself into the ground.
 
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#743
#743
Transportation Pete's got this supply thing down pat now ya'll. I heard him say the three things are supply, demand, and the pandemic. And the chain has something to do with Corn Pop and xiden.
 
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#744
#744
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#747
#747
CagleMtnVol said:
👀
This would have been great to have seen an hour ago!🤔😧
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People who eat food contaminated with the Salmonella bacteria can develop diarrhea, fever, and stomach cramping within 6 hours to 6 days, the CDC warned. The illness usually lasts 4 to 7 days. Most people recover without treatment, but sometimes cases can be severe and warrant hospitalization. Severe illness is more likely in children younger than 5, adults 65 and older, and people with compromised immune systems.
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Looks like we may have found another use for the horse paste...
 
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#749
#749
hog88 said:
What do we do with all the humans without the skills to maintain the machines doing the jobs they used to do? Yes, yes I know "what did the people that made the buggies do after we invented cars" but it's a serious question. If you run the manufacturing out of the country where do the unskilled go to work?
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We all have a role to play in the new world order

73562176-3D43-4F81-8E72-3006F8428DE4.gif
 
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