Confident USU Fans (blue cool-aid)

[Boca Vol]

Those kind of losses keep us from saying we are a good team (which no one is saying), but 90% of the teams in the country would have had a similar experience playing those 5 teams. Especially in the order we played them, and I'm including all the big boys of the MountainWAC-12 or whatever their conference is called.

No one called UT a good team last season...even after the S. Carolina game. If you take out a severely injured UGA team and the result of that game it looks much worse when you calculate the average of Oregon, Bama, Mizzou, and Auburn. That average was 47.5 to 12.5.

Yes, UT played a tough schedule last year but they weren't very competitive outside of S. Carolina and an OT loss to a much over-rated UGA team.

Playing that schedule and pointed out where the opponents were ranked isn't really relevant when UT wasn't competitive in the games.

 

[MJA]

Oh... And odds makers set lines in order to regulate the money being wagered on each team. More than likely, they had to set a low line in hopes that someone would bet on USU. If they set a 30 pt line in UT's favor, how any people do you think would bet on USU? It's really a pretty simple concept.

If you thought they set the line based on actually trying to predict the final score, well... That's cute.

How do you think you get equal betting? By making a good spread. Why is that such a foreign concept? If Tenn only being favored by 7 points was so wrong, the sportsbooks would lose hundreds of thousands from smart guys who prey on bad point spreads and load up on those bad spreads.

The spread is often a very accurate prediction of the outcome because of this. If anything, the general public will be betting on Tenn FARRRR more than on USU (for the same reasons people around here think you will kill us), so what is keeping them from upping the spread to more than 6.5? (it actually started at 7 and went DOWN)

 

[KnoxRealtorVOL]

No one called UT a good team last season...even after the S. Carolina game. If you take out a severely injured UGA team and the result of that game it looks much worse when you calculate the average of Oregon, Bama, Mizzou, and Auburn. That average was 47.5 to 12.5.

Yes, UT played a tough schedule last year but they weren't very competitive outside of S. Carolina and an OT loss to a much over-rated UGA team.

Playing that schedule and pointed out where the opponents were ranked isn't really relevant when UT wasn't competitive in the games.

I'm not sure what you're trying to argue here. I already stated no one called us a good team, including ourselves. What would the average have been if we had Worley instead of Dobbs? What would the score of the Georgia game have been if we hadn't needed Neal to take every single snap at RB. You can't just add/remove things and look at other "what if" situations to better fit your argument.

As for the second half of your post, I'm not using where our opponents were ranked as some sort of bragging rights. I was using it to point out that there's more to the story of 7 losses than just "7 losses", and it's hard to say Tennessee is a bad team when, as I said earlier, 90% of the country would have had similar results against the teams we played.

 

[OHvol40]

How do you think you get equal betting? By making a good spread. Why is that such a foreign concept? If Tenn only being favored by 7 points was so wrong, the sportsbooks would lose hundreds of thousands from smart guys who prey on bad point spreads and load up on those bad spreads.

The spread is often a very accurate prediction of the outcome because of this. If anything, the general public will be betting on Tenn FARRRR more than on USU (for the same reasons people around here think you will kill us), so what is keeping them from upping the spread to more than 6.5? (it actually started at 7 and went DOWN)

Spreads reflect nothing more than general public perception. They are not designed to actually predict the outcome of a game, they are designed to mirror public opinion. Not sure how any of this matters anyway.

The premise for your defense of USU's ability to compete in Neyland rests on a long series of loses in similar situations, meanwhile, UT has a mile long laundry list of hopeful, upset-minded 2nd tier teams that have been chewed up and spit out (even in the recent stretch of bad teams).

USU may be the exception rather than the rule, but not likely. Can't wait to find out.

 

[Boca Vol]

I'm not sure what you're trying to argue here. I already stated no one called us a good team, including ourselves. What would the average have been if we had Worley instead of Dobbs? What would the score of the Georgia game have been if we hadn't needed Neal to take every single snap at RB. You can't just add/remove things and look at other "what if" situations to better fit your argument.

As for the second half of your post, I'm not using where our opponents were ranked as some sort of bragging rights. I was using it to point out that there's more to the story of 7 losses than just "7 losses", and it's hard to say Tennessee is a bad team when, as I said earlier, 90% of the country would have had similar results against the teams we played.

Your exact sentence was, "Sorry to disappoint, but losing to #6, #1, #2, #4, #5, and beating #10 in the country (rankings at the time we played them) doesn't make us a bad team."

All I said was when you get your butt handed to you in those losses then it does make you a bad team.

Regarding Worley, I'm not sure. There were some who put Bama on upset alert last season after the USC game. UT was getting hammered when he left the game.

As far as Neal taking every snap at RB, what does that have to do with UGA marching down the field to score a TD and tie the game?

UT was a bad team last season. That really has nothing to do with this season. UT should handle these games better. I'm not saying they will win all of them but the games should be more competitive.

 

[MJA]

So, you actually considered your incessant recommendations for wagers a serious response? No. You have nothing to say to it because it's all true, and also happens to be a very damaging series of facts to your argument.



I'll be here to congratulate both you and your team, if that happens. Seriously. I have no ill will towards you or USU. I actually like USU.

But the fact of the matter is that we've had a lot of lower-conf team fans come in here and giver better reasons than you as to why they will play us tough--actually by better teams and in weaker years than we project to be this year. The fact remains that we stomp them, they leave somewhat disillusioned, and we move on to the meat of our schedule.

If USU proves to be the exception, so be it. I'll congratulate you, hope for a great season for you guys, and dread the rest of ours.

But until that happens, just know that you are only one more hopeful fan among many who have come before you, cheering on one more lower-level team with grand hopes that rarely play out like you think they will. I'll see you here, however it turns out.

And I'll be gracious either way.

Here are some spreads for those games.

2013:
A.31* AUSTIN PEAY L -49' 45-0
S.07 W. KY. W -13' 52-20
S.28 S. ALABAMA L -17 31-24

O.19 S. CAROLINA W +7' 23-21

2012:
N. Carolina St. W -3 35-21

2011:
S.03* MONTANA L -26' 42-16
O.01 BUFFALO W -28' 41-10
N.05* M. TENN. ST.# W -21' 24-0


In the last 3 years, you've been favored over those teams by spreads far higher, except for North Carolina State, which you guys were favored by 3 over and won by 14. That year NC State was 7-5 with a 33-6 loss to Virginia. Otherwise you were favored by 26 points against Montana (which people compare us to), 49 over Austin Peay (also compares us to), 17 over USA, and 13 over WKU. All a bit more than 6.5

For comparisons sake, Tenn was similarly only a 7 point dog when you guys knocked off S. Carolina last year (so not actually a HUGE upset, but definitely a great win)

:hi:

 

[KnoxRealtorVOL]

Your exact sentence was, "Sorry to disappoint, but losing to #6, #1, #2, #4, #5, and beating #10 in the country (rankings at the time we played them) doesn't make us a bad team."

All I said was when you get your butt handed to you in those losses then it does make you a bad team.

UT was a bad team last season. That really has nothing to do with this season. UT should handle these games better. I'm not saying they will win all of them but the games should be more competitive.

Yes and I argued this by saying 90% of the teams in the country would have had similar results, so no I don't think we were a bad team last year, at least not until Dobbs took over at QB. It's hard to say we were bad when we played the best of the best. If we had replaced just two of those Top 5 teams with 20-25th ranked teams we are probably 7-5 or 8-4.

Bad record, not a bad team. The only strike last year was the Vandy loss, but they were on fire playing the best ball in the history of their program, and it still took a last-second TD to beat us.

 

[Boca Vol]

Spreads reflect nothing more than general public perception. They are not designed to actually predict the outcome of a game, they are designed to mirror public opinion. Not sure how any of this matters anyway.

The premise for your defense of USU's ability to compete in Neyland rests on a long series of loses in similar situations, meanwhile, UT has a mile long laundry list of bad teams).

USU may be the exception rather than the rule, but not likely. Can't wait to find out.

For people who actually put money down on the games that's exactly what they do (relative to the point spread). If more money goes one way or the other the line will move. It actually opened at UT -7 and now it is UT -6.5 so more money is being bet on USU compared to when the line opened.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

When those 5 losses are by an average of 44-16...yes, it does make you a bad team.

UT is getting better but bragging about them getting their ass handed to them isn't proving anything.

No it doesn't. A loss is a loss. If it's by 50 or by 3 it's the same. There is no special asterisk by a losing teams name that says "oh we only lost by a small amount and were competitive so that means the loss means less."

 

[Boca Vol]

Yes and I argued this by saying 90% of the teams in the country would have had similar results, so no I don't think we were a bad team last year, at least not until Dobbs took over at QB. It's hard to say we were bad when we played the best of the best. If we had replaced just two of those Top 5 teams with 20-25th ranked teams we are probably 7-5 or 8-4.

Bad record, not a bad team. The only strike last year was the Vandy loss, but they were on fire playing the best ball in the history of their program, and it still took a last-second TD to beat us.

UT is a top 10 all-time winning school. You're downgrading UT to Akron's equal.

When the average loss to the better teams on the schedule borders 5 TD's there's a problem!

Your original list didn't include Vandy, but since you mentioned it, I agree. That was a strike.

 

[Boca Vol]

No it doesn't. A loss is a loss. If it's by 50 or by 3 it's the same. There is no special asterisk by a losing teams name that says "oh we only lost by a small amount and were competitive so that means the loss means less."

Then why was this place having a collective circle j**k on here last season after the UGA game?

And yes, there is a difference in losses. If UT goes to Oklahoma and has a chance in the 4th quarter to win the game, there's no way you can tell me you would rate it equal to the Oregon last year where it was over early.

 

[MJA]

For people who actually put money down on the games that's exactly what they do (relative to the point spread). If more money goes one way or the other the line will move. It actually opened at UT -7 and now it is UT -6.5 so more money is being bet on USU compared to when the line opened.

Thank you. It's a common misconception for many, so I don't blame him really.

With Boca Vol's input, I'll step back from my renegade. I'll be in Knoxville on the 29th and am excited to take in a game there, should be memorable win or lose.

:mf_surrender:

 

[Boca Vol]

Thank you. It's a common misconception for many, so I don't blame him really.

With Boca Vol's input, I'll step back from my renegade. I'll be in Knoxville on the 29th and am excited to take in a game there, should be memorable win or lose.

:mf_surrender:

With that said, I still think UT wins this game easily. I said 17 points before and I stick by that.

However, the $$$$$ says otherwise, to your point. It's one thing to make predictions when there is nothing on the line. It's quite another to actually place a wager. With that said, if I was in Vegas today, I would take the Vols and not think a thing about it.

 

[OHvol40]

For people who actually put money down on the games that's exactly what they do (relative to the point spread). If more money goes one way or the other the line will move. It actually opened at UT -7 and now it is UT -6.5 so more money is being bet on USU compared to when the line opened.

I understand, which is why I said it is designed to mirror public opinion/perceptions, not actually predict the outcome of a game. If it were purely a prediction of the outcome, the line wouldn't move. It is an educated guess at public opinion designed to draw even bets on a game. Which, like I said, is different than an actual predicted outcome.

Chris Berman doing "The swami" is a prediction, a "line" that adjusts itself based on placed bets to one side or another is not.

 

[MJA]

I understand, which is why I said it is designed to mirror public opinion/perceptions, not actually predict the outcome of a game. If it were purely a prediction of the outcome, the line wouldn't move. It is an educated guess at public opinion designed to draw even bets on a game. Which, like I said, is different than an actual predicted outcome.

Chris Berman doing "The swami" is a prediction, a "line" that adjusts itself based on placed bets to one side or another is not.

But wouldn't the public opinion/perception lean with Tenn in this case? I feel like that argument doesn't fly when it's an SEC team at home vs. a MWC team.

Even so, the "line" is like the prediction of thousands of people betting thousands of dollars. It's a consensus. If the line is bad, it moves to correct itself when too much is bet on one side. Where it settles is usually right in the middle, and that middle is often extremely close to the eventual outcome. It's pretty much the best prediction possible, because it's people who actually place their money on the game that determine it (and the odds makers who set the line/move the line accordingly).

 

[Boca Vol]

I understand, which is why I said it is designed to mirror public opinion/perceptions, not actually predict the outcome of a game. If it were purely a prediction of the outcome, the line wouldn't move. It is an educated guess at public opinion designed to draw even bets on a game. Which, like I said, is different than an actual predicted outcome.

Chris Berman doing "The swami" is a prediction, a "line" that adjusts itself based on placed bets to one side or another is not.

I see you point. It's amazing how often Vegas is correct on their line, though.

 

[OHvol40]

I see you point. It's amazing how often Vegas is correct on their line, though.

Yes, it really is.

 

[Wezcoast]

"USU 38, Tennessee 10.

Yes, I believe that. I think they're only touchdown will be either late in the game against our 2nd string defense or from our offense turning it over. I think our defense/ST will put us in position at least twice to get a short TD or FG if not outright score. USU will bring it early and will not turn it off until half of Neyland Stadium is empty."

Now that's good stuff. Somebody's been smokin.

 

[aRmo]

Im betting money the USU Fans never visit this forum again after this game. Its going to be said because most of the Volnation trolls is going to be blowing up their forums after they get an eye opener that they are no where near SEC talent.:rock:

 

[ajvol01]

But wouldn't the public opinion/perception lean with Tenn in this case? I feel like that argument doesn't fly when it's an SEC team at home vs. a MWC team.

Even so, the "line" is like the prediction of thousands of people betting thousands of dollars. It's a consensus. If the line is bad, it moves to correct itself when too much is bet on one side. Where it settles is usually right in the middle, and that middle is often extremely close to the eventual outcome. It's pretty much the best prediction possible, because it's people who actually place their money on the game that determine it (and the odds makers who set the line/move the line accordingly).

Public perception of Tennessee is a team that has 4 consec losing seasons including 2 straight losses to Vandy (first in my lifetime - I'm 43).

SEC doesn't outweigh the past 6 seasons of historically bad Vol football - the public perception will change (favor Tennessee) when we start winning, but not before.

I would not have been surprised at a 3 pt line (even money with Tennessee +3 for home field advantage).

 

[DuckinVol]

But wouldn't the public opinion/perception lean with Tenn in this case? I feel like that argument doesn't fly when it's an SEC team at home vs. a MWC team.

Even so, the "line" is like the prediction of thousands of people betting thousands of dollars. It's a consensus. If the line is bad, it moves to correct itself when too much is bet on one side. Where it settles is usually right in the middle, and that middle is often extremely close to the eventual outcome. It's pretty much the best prediction possible, because it's people who actually place their money on the game that determine it (and the odds makers who set the line/move the line accordingly).

I won't pretend to be an expert because I don't bet on games, and I don't follow this stuff other than as a fan that hears lines quoted on the radio all the time. I was listening to a show the other day where the two hosts are betting "experts," and I understand from friends who are into the whole betting deal that these guys are very good and WILL make you money if you follow their recommendations throughout the season.

Can't recall all the specifics, but they did say the lines were established a bit differently at different points in the season. They stated that lines for the first three games were like taking candy from babies from the average betting fan. The fans were most aware of final records and some performances from the past year without taking all the details leading to those performances and also the changing dynamics of each team leading into the current season.

They didn't cover the USU vs UT game, but they did talk about a couple of other similar matchups. Recent history of close losses to good teams would lead you to believe USU should cover a 6.5, if not win outright, over a UT team that has been on a record run of bad seasons. In fact, it sounds like a darn smart bet if you don't take things into account such as SOS, recruiting rankings, speed index, time in the system and many other factors studied by the books.

Basically fans are led to make "smart" bets based more on history than what the books believe is the current reality. After about three games, the fans are much more clued in on what is really happening with most of the teams, and the books adjust accordingly.

As I said, I don't know squat about it, and this may be absolutely wrong, but I have no doubt Vegas will shape the odds in favor of them winning whenever they can.

 

[Sharriscgcs]

I wouldn't expect you to. I knew just about none of the names of Tenn players before recently. I think I heard of North, and I may have heard your QBs name (Worley?) because of how bad he was. That's about it.

Chuckie Keeton is getting the most press of any player on either team by far.

Now you are just making yourself look foolish...ever hear of A.J Johnson, you know the Tenn player that is pre-season All American?

How many USU players made this list...EVER?

Phil Steele's 2014 college football preseason All-America team - ESPN

 

[Sharriscgcs]

Well we have a guy that's already broken the Sportcenter Top 10 and hasn't even played a down for us yet. So I don't know what to tell you, watch ESPN I guess. He's the same guy that did this:

Von Pearson vs. Cam Sutton - YouTube

Hopefully for your sake the USU DB's are good enough to handle that.

Pretty sure there have never been any USU players make a SportsCenter Top 10 inany sport.

 

[SWOvol]

The thing that sticks out to me when reading their boards is that they are praying that Daniel Gray is healthy enough to start for them at corner . . . and they feel like they're secondary will be able to hold up against our WRs. :no:

 

[butchna]

You come on our board talking ish... Why don't YOU put your money where your mouth is?

Think how much butt paste that $20.00 he's risking would buy. :huh: