Confident USU Fans (blue cool-aid)

[sjt18]

sjt18, I wondered why you were being surprisingly positive about the Vols in their first two games. Now I know.

I doubt it.

I am stating a genuine belief. I have more confidence now in Jones than I did before. I LIKE the way he has conducted the Spring, off season, and now fall camp. I BELIEVE he will be successful... but we still need the proof. Losing to either of two undermanned mid-majors would be proof in the opposite direction.

 

[Orange_Crush]

I would say Vegas is a "neutral" source in that the line will fluctuate based on where the money is. They don't care about UT or USU, they just want even money to capitalize on their 11/10 house advantage. Pay the winners with the losers money and keep the vig. It's free money for them.

While some of us think UT will win rather easily, the people putting their $$$ down say otherwise.

Thus they are not a 'neutral' source. They are a self-interested source, which has been the point all along.

 

[ImportedVoL]

Our "realists" often point out about how they hear every year we are going to beat bama etc... and it gets old.. or "go look at last year oregon thread"

Well I can say the same...

We hear this every year.. how we have had losing seasons.. and some turd of a team that not even top of their conference is going to give us some good game.. and we better be worried...

And then we destroy them easily... (NC state, Cincy, etc...)

I hope for Utah's sake they can find some kind of moral victory coming out of this game.. like "oh we stayed with UT for 1 quarter" or if only "insert random player name here" didnt get hurt we might have made it a decent game.. or whatever...

Because that is the only type of victory they will walk away from Neyland with...

P.S. People who look at last years w/l record and try to make a case for this year are the ultimate idiots IMO. Just because a team has a decent w/l record does not mean they played anyone worth a dime..

U.T. would be undefeated if we played nothing but high school teams all year... would a 15-0 record vs high schoolers help us when we went to go play Alabama or UGA?

No.. it wouldnt make any difference, would still get our arse kicked the same..

 

[sjt18]

While some of us think UT will win rather easily, the people putting their $$$ down say otherwise.

And the pink elephant in the room is this... many of the people putting $$$ down are doing so based on the performance of two teams that WILL NOT be on the field on the 31st. They'll be basing it on the teams those programs fielded from the last couple of years.

There are few worse predictors of an outcome than that.

 

[sjt18]

The other pink elephant in the room is that when one team has an advantage like UT has over USU's secondary... with all other things being relatively equal... the likelihood for a big win increases.

Jones' Cincy team a few years ago did some good things vs UT. Without Bray, Hunter, and Rogers... that's a tight ball game and Cincy may have won it. Same with NCSU. But those playmakers turned the game.

I fully expect the staff to recognize and take advantage of that mismatch. If they do, this isn't a close game.

FWIW, I also think UT is better coached at every position than they were then... That should just magnify the impact of the elite playmakers.

 

[Boca Vol]

Thus they are not a 'neutral' source. They are a self-interested source, which has been the point all along.

Maybe we're splitting hairs here, but when I say neutral source Vegas doesn't care if they pay me with your money or if they you with my money. That's about as neutral as it gets.

Their self-interest is they provide the vehicle for these wagers to occur. If they've done it properly, they have 0 risk.

 

[DuckinVol]

And the pink elephant in the room is this... many of the people putting $$$ down are doing so based on the performance of two teams that WILL NOT be on the field on the 31st. They'll be basing it on the teams those programs fielded from the last couple of years.

There are few worse predictors of an outcome than that.

EXACTLY. Vegas knows this, and they make a ton of money in the first three games by knowing and setting lines taking the lack of current knowledge of the average fan.

Couple of guys on the USU boards made me feel really good. They're sure our running game is the strength of the team, and they're equally sure the USU coaches will be selling out to stop the run. Sounds like a perfect plan.:loco:

 

[Boca Vol]

And the pink elephant in the room is this... many of the people putting $$$ down are doing so based on the performance of two teams that WILL NOT be on the field on the 31st. They'll be basing it on the teams those programs fielded from the last couple of years.

There are few worse predictors of an outcome than that.

I tend to agree with your assessment in that there is a lot of value in the opening weeks of the season. The lines are predicted on last season. They're looking at a UT that struggled to score points in the tougher games on the schedule, etc.

The O/U is around 50.5. If the 6.5 line holds true that means UT should win 28.5 - 22. I know that's not scientific by any means but it gives you an idea of where they see this game. I don't see it that close. The 50.5 may come into play but in the 34-17 range.

 

[sjt18]

I don't know what the fascination is with this. We already know who the starters are. If you want to prove yourself, do it against the best. That means playing well against the 1s. The 1s are a known commodity. I think it is the better way to handle early scrimmages. it changes at the end of camp.

You are playing your 1's against your 2's to prepare your 1's to play a team more athletic and talented than your 1's. Typically in at least the 1st couple of weeks of August SEC coaches will have a lot of 1's on 1's action to raise the competition level. Next week they'll start limiting contact some or altogether to get guys healthy then go into game week mode the next week.

Very typical as best I can tell for BCS programs.

 

[Orange_Crush]

Maybe we're splitting hairs here, but when I say neutral source Vegas doesn't care if they pay me with your money or if they you with my money. That's about as neutral as it gets.

Their self-interest is they provide the vehicle for these wagers to occur. If they've done it properly, they have 0 risk.

If they've done it properly...

Exactly. Not neutral. Self-interested. They have a self-interested motive for where they place the line. You've referred to that self-interest in two posts, while claiming them to be neutral. It's just odd.

 

[sjt18]

The 50.5 may come into play but in the 34-17 range.

Agree. I just don't think they have the DB athletes to stop UT's receivers. To me, that's what moves me from believing that this will be a "typical" USU game against a bigger team. Their performance against some big time and talent laden programs is very impressive. The problem is their secondary was much better then than now... and I don't think they've faced anyone in the past 3 years with the athletic talent UT has at WR.

 

[Madmartigan]

Agree. I just don't think they have the DB athletes to stop UT's receivers. To me, that's what moves me from believing that this will be a "typical" USU game against a bigger team. Their performance against some big time and talent laden programs is very impressive. The problem is their secondary was much better then than now... and I don't think they've faced anyone in the past 3 years with the athletic talent UT has at WR.

Difference between much better and unproven. Tough to say which the secondary will be this year.

 

[Boca Vol]

If they've done it properly...

Exactly. Not neutral. Self-interested. They have a self-interested motive for where they place the line. You've referred to that self-interest in two posts, while claiming them to be neutral. It's just odd.

I'm not following you. Vegas is in the business to make money by allowing people to bet on contests (college football in this instance). That is their motivation...to make money.

Their motive for placing the line is to get 50% on one side and 50% on the other. If they've accomplished this, they've done their job with 0 risk. They don't care if UT covers, they don't care if USU covers.

One of the definitions of neutral is: not aligned with or supporting any side or position in a controversy.

The controversy is the USU vs UT game.

 

[ntxVOL]

I'm not following you. Vegas is in the business to make money by allowing people to bet on contests (college football in this instance). That is their motivation...to make money.

Their motive for placing the line is to get 50% on one side and 50% on the other. If they've accomplished this, they've done their job with 0 risk. They don't care if UT covers, they don't care if USU covers.

One of the definitions of neutral is: not aligned with or supporting any side or position in a controversy.

The controversy is the USU vs UT game.

It's the first game of the season so it's all perception right now. We have to replace both lines, we have a lot of question marks going into the season and we haven't been very good for a while. I think it would be hard to get people to bet on us with a larger line and rightfully so. How many would really bet on us if the line were 14?

I think everyone realizes that this game could be close or it could be a blow out. No one is willing to bet that we will be a much improved team this year...not yet anyway.

 

[jlf2n]

This just isn't true at all. 18/22 of our starters are uppperclassmen and 3/4 who aren't were starting last year at the end of the season.

Playing in a few games and being seasoned starters is a different animal entirely. We have guys that we are considering new that have game experience as well. Good looking out though on repping your team and being excited. That's what college football is all about. Everyone is undefeated going into game 1.

 

[Orange_Crush]

I'm not following you. Vegas is in the business to make money by allowing people to bet on contests (college football in this instance). That is their motivation...to make money.

Their motive for placing the line is to get 50% on one side and 50% on the other. If they've accomplished this, they've done their job with 0 risk. They don't care if UT covers, they don't care if USU covers.

One of the definitions of neutral is: not aligned with or supporting any side or position in a controversy.

The controversy is the USU vs UT game.

No, if you want to get technical, the 'controversy' is the betting line. It is the prediction. And you've listed in three posts what self-interest the bookies have in setting the line. They couldn't care less who wins. They absolutely care where they set the line because, as you have mentioned, they have a vested interest in how the bets balance against the line.

They are not trying to predict the actual score; they are trying to align money so that they get more of it, and lose less of it.

Our resident USU visitor has referred to the line as an indicator of what the final score will be. You listed the reasons they're not neutral, while calling them neutral.

 

[TCbodybuilder]

Agree. I just don't think they have the DB athletes to stop UT's receivers. To me, that's what moves me from believing that this will be a "typical" USU game against a bigger team. Their performance against some big time and talent laden programs is very impressive. The problem is their secondary was much better then than now... and I don't think they've faced anyone in the past 3 years with the athletic talent UT has at WR.

I agree, but to play devil's advocate -- they have played better quarterbacks, running backs, and offensive lines than what UT will field the first game.

 

[Volz4lif3]

EXACTLY. Vegas knows this, and they make a ton of money in the first three games by knowing and setting lines taking the lack of current knowledge of the average fan.

Couple of guys on the USU boards made me feel really good. They're sure our running game is the strength of the team, and they're equally sure the USU coaches will be selling out to stop the run. Sounds like a perfect plan.:loco:

Sounds like the perfect plan...
While our Receivers run for TD's

 

[Boca Vol]

No, if you want to get technical, the 'controversy' is the betting line. It is the prediction. And you've listed in three posts what self-interest the bookies have in setting the line. They couldn't care less who wins. They absolutely care where they set the line because, as you have mentioned, they have a vested interest in how the bets balance against the line.

They are not trying to predict the actual score; they are trying to align money so that they get more of it, and lose less of it.

Our resident USU visitor has referred to the line as an indicator of what the final score will be. You listed the reasons they're not neutral, while calling them neutral.

In my book, that is being neutral.

I agree with you in that moving the line shows favoritism but their end goal is 50/50. If they accomplish this by kickoff they don't care who wins, covers, etc. They're simply paying the winners with the losers money and keeping the vig.

 

[AllVols]

EXACTLY. Vegas knows this, and they make a ton of money in the first three games by knowing and setting lines taking the lack of current knowledge of the average fan.

Couple of guys on the USU boards made me feel really good. They're sure our running game is the strength of the team, and they're equally sure the USU coaches will be selling out to stop the run. Sounds like a perfect plan.:loco:

I just want to comment on the underline comment you made, just because I'm at lunch and have nothing better to do. Plus I like to see my avatar. lol Not arguing with you, But that's what every team did last year. Stack the line and stop the run beat TN. We didn't have any down the field or hardly any down the field plays last year and I'm sure they see that until team 118 proves they can go down the field, I'd stack the line too. If they get burned I'm sure they will change it up. just my :twocents:

 

[Orange_Crush]

In my book, that is being neutral.

I agree with you in that moving the line shows favoritism but their end goal is 50/50. If they accomplish this by kickoff they don't care who wins, covers, etc. They're simply paying the winners with the losers money and keeping the vig.

And that was my exact point to the USU fan that tried to use the Vegas spread as an indication that it'll be a close game.

 

[ficklez]

I agree, but to play devil's advocate -- they have played better quarterbacks, running backs, and offensive lines than what UT will field the first game.

USC had marquise lee (won the award for the best WR in the country, was consensus all american) and nelson agholor (barely under 1,000 yards), 3rd best WR in his class, ridiculous offers Nelson Agholor - Yahoo! Sports

not only were they talented, but they were experienced. UT has incredible talent at WR and some experience, but the most talented are the least experienced.

 

[ficklez]

And that was my exact point to the USU fan that tried to use the Vegas spread as an indication that it'll be a close game.

32/75 teams favored last year covered the spread in week 1. the underdog went 9-7 where the spread was within one score. Not just covered, but won the game. those odds were the same way (using a lot of projection based on the previous year), but I like the way they ended up.

and since UT is 9-16 against the spread the last two years, I think they're generally over-valued by vegas (usu went 20-6 ATS last two years).

 

[Orange_Crush]

32/75 teams favored last year covered the spread in week 1. the underdog went 9-7 where the spread was within one score. Not just covered, but won the game. those odds were the same way (using a lot of projection based on the previous year), but I like the way they ended up.

I like your enthusiasm. I really do. And I think it's cute that you ignore the differences in talent between our two teams in favor of what bookies do to try to get even betting.

I'll see you here the night of the game, or the morning after.

 

[Madmartigan]

I like your enthusiasm. I really do. And I think it's cute that you ignore the differences in talent between our two teams in favor of what bookies do to try to get even betting.

I'll see you here the night of the game, or the morning after.

It's a never-ending argument this one. Can USU compete with UT's talent. Many UT fans would say that talent, especially at WR will have you winning the game by 20+ points. That combined with a lot of other factors: homefield, tradition, some variation of "we're in the SEC" type talk, will also help you blow USU out.

USU fans counter by saying that the program has played well against teams thought to be vastly more talented teams not once but several times in the past years, all with different squads. For my .02 I think USU has played more talented teams than UT and done alright. I hope my opinion isn't insulting. I don't expect a USU win, but I don't look for a blowout either and I don't think I'm being unrealistic in this view.

Excited for two weeks!