Da Reds thread

#11,601
#11,601
Appalachiamuck said:
Firstly, thank you Bruce for your time with the Reds. The guy had his ups and downs, but put together a fine career.

I'm not sure what to make of the return we got for him. Thought we'd get better. Do we really need another middle infielder?

It does kinda seem like Hamilton is starting to figure things out. But he's doing good to get his OBP to .300. We need him to K less and take more walks or take a couple off the arm. I'm curious to know how frequently he bunts. Seems like he could get on base a high % of the time if he fine tuned his bunting.
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I agree on Billy. I'm not convinced they have the right instructor(s) working with him in the off season. Hatcher can't work with him exclusively during the season. He's helped, but he has other duties. Pitchers have learned to pitch him high. Seems like if he could shorten up more as well as bunt better the could counter the strategy. Bad game at the plate last night. It took Duvall to 27 years old to be able to be what he is, it looks like it will for Billy. Speaking of which, Duvall has got the arm and speed for RF. Very happy with what I see so far.

Good luck to Jay with the Mets. Good guy, that just needs to keep doing what he is doing this season and finish his career strong. They liked Herrera for some reason. Seems like they had some talent on the farm at 2B, but must not have satisfied with it. Just speculation, but now they may have the SS and 2B of the future working together at Louisville as they sent Peraza down the same day.

Scott Schebler with the "I want the job in LF" moment last night. That's how to make a statement.
 
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#11,602
#11,602
Appalachiamuck said:
Did a quick search and found this article. Interesting.

Why is Billy Hamilton still bunting? | redsminorleagues.com
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Good post. I'm with this guy. I like bunting situationally and when it's obvious the D is not going to be able to handle it. Otherwise I would be about hitting the ball on the ground and line drives. His swing should never produce a fly ball or pop up except by accident.

I have been saying what this guy says for years on the Reds' message board. It's not just Billy. They apparently do not have top hitting instructors on the farm nor is Don Long one. Too much inconsistency. When guys like Bruce or Cozart can make small changes and get immediate results as they near 30 years of age - well - why was that not addressed years before when it was really obvious it needed to be?

A 25 year old, 26th round draft choice Scott Schebler can be acquired in trade and within a year be starting in LF while a 1st round draft choice Jesse Winker still isn't ready. Granted there is 2-3 years age difference, but only one season of professional development difference. Jesse's been in pro ball for nearly 5 years and he is still not MLB ready. That seems to be the rule with this org.
 
#11,603
#11,603
Joey Votto *clap, clap, clap, clap, clap, clap*
Joey Votto *clap, clap, clap, clap, clap, clap*
Joey Votto *clap, clap, clap, clap, clap, clap*
Joey Votto *clap, clap, clap, clap, clap, clap*
Joey Votto *clap, clap, clap, clap, clap, clap*
Joey Votto *clap, clap, clap, clap, clap, clap*
Joey Votto *clap, clap, clap, clap, clap, clap*
Joey Votto *clap, clap, clap, clap, clap, clap*
Joey Votto *clap, clap, clap, clap, clap, clap*
Joey Votto *clap, clap, clap, clap, clap, clap*
 
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#11,606
#11,606
Learned tonight who has been helping Billy the most with pitch selection - Joey Votto. Since they don't have a coach that could team him, he started teaching him how so Billy could up his OBP and help the team. Its working - he's up to .310 and getting better. His base stealing is incredible and is creating much more offense to go with his great D. Joey gets an attaboy for that one, along with his decision to hit the ball this second half of the season. That has been encouraging that he thinks hit first before walks now. Hope he continues to do that for the rest of his career.
 
#11,607
#11,607
They are significantly increasing the speed of the roster this season if Schebler sticks and Peraza is brought back up in September.
 
#11,608
#11,608
Billy with 9 SB's in 3 games. Future HOF catcher Molina victimized with 7 of them. smh...

To further illustrate Price's thinking, he publicly stated that if Iggy or Lorenzen pitch one inning in a game, they have to rest for one game before he will use them. If they go 2 innings, they have to rest two days. He does not care how many pitches they have in those games. So practically speaking, they could have a 10 pitch inning and not have to pitch until a couple days later if at all. They both have come off injuries awhile back, but clearly are perfectly healthy now. Where do I sign up for that gig?

Of course Chappy could be used 3 and a few times 4 days in a row with no problem. Further illustration that this team is being managed by an idiot.
 
#11,609
#11,609
Hamilton with OBP up to .314. Heading in the right direction. Votto north of .300 for the first time this season. BP has provided some very timely hitting. Things beginning to improve a bit if Gomer can continue to pitch like he did last night. Straily and Finnegan have been solid.
 
#11,612
#11,612
zjcvols said:
oh hey look at Votto now:

.301/.428/.504
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Actually we are quite happy with his offense. He probably will never hit for much power again - but he is now hitting, not trying to walk every AB. His D is still poor as you know from his DWAR stat if you do not watch the games, but it is hidden most of the time. Like I posted above, he is now actually helping guys on the team with their hitting approaches like Billy and more recently Schebler.
 
#11,613
#11,613
Billy nearly at .325 OBP, Appy. Since the AS break his BA has been .370 to this point. Making pitchers miserable when he's on base.
 
#11,614
#11,614
zjcvols said:
oh hey look at Votto now:

.301/.428/.504
Click to expand...

Just curious, z. Where were you when he was sucking wind and tanking worse than most everybody in the first half of the season? Just like last season. Once the season is over for the team he gets it going. The deception of stats that can not quantify clutch hitting when W/L is on the line.

Just a trolling passerby, right? :hi:
 
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#11,615
#11,615
He could be a combination of babe Ruth Barry bonds Jesus Christ and the easter bunny and it still wouldn't help the Reds. The incessant *****ing about the only good player on your team is what everyone finds hilarious.
 
#11,616
#11,616
TBrown said:
He could be a combination of babe Ruth Barry bonds Jesus Christ and the easter bunny and it still wouldn't help the Reds. The incessant *****ing about the only good player on your team is what everyone finds hilarious.
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No no no Votto doesn't hit in April because he can't handle the pressures of April baseball when the season is on the line. This is much more logical
 
#11,617
#11,617
Man, I'm looking and Votto's 2010 season and man he couldn't handle the pressure when they won the division and he led the league in OPS
 
#11,618
#11,618
Vols4us said:
Learned tonight who has been helping Billy the most with pitch selection - Joey Votto. Since they don't have a coach that could team him, he started teaching him how so Billy could up his OBP and help the team. Its working - he's up to .310 and getting better. His base stealing is incredible and is creating much more offense to go with his great D. Joey gets an attaboy for that one, along with his decision to hit the ball this second half of the season. That has been encouraging that he thinks hit first before walks now. Hope he continues to do that for the rest of his career.
Click to expand...
That's awesome. If Votto had the speed of Hamilton he'd steal 100+ every year lol.

Vols4us said:
Billy with 9 SB's in 3 games. Future HOF catcher Molina victimized with 7 of them. smh...

To further illustrate Price's thinking, he publicly stated that if Iggy or Lorenzen pitch one inning in a game, they have to rest for one game before he will use them. If they go 2 innings, they have to rest two days. He does not care how many pitches they have in those games. So practically speaking, they could have a 10 pitch inning and not have to pitch until a couple days later if at all. They both have come off injuries awhile back, but clearly are perfectly healthy now. Where do I sign up for that gig?

Of course Chappy could be used 3 and a few times 4 days in a row with no problem. Further illustration that this team is being managed by an idiot.
Click to expand...
Price is absolutely atrocious.

Vols4us said:
Hamilton with OBP up to .314. Heading in the right direction. Votto north of .300 for the first time this season. BP has provided some very timely hitting. Things beginning to improve a bit if Gomer can continue to pitch like he did last night. Straily and Finnegan have been solid.
Click to expand...
Votto is on fire! I don't trust Homer at all, never will.

Vols4us said:
Billy nearly at .325 OBP, Appy. Since the AS break his BA has been .370 to this point. Making pitchers miserable when he's on base.
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Hamilton is going nuts since ASB. Maybe you were right on him getting .320+ OBP, we'll see. Reds have 2nd best record in MLB since the break too. It's happening?

Vols4us said:
Actually we are quite happy with his offense. He probably will never hit for much power again - but he is now hitting, not trying to walk every AB. His D is still poor as you know from his DWAR stat if you do not watch the games, but it is hidden most of the time. Like I posted above, he is now actually helping guys on the team with their hitting approaches like Billy and more recently Schebler.
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Honestly V4us, I think Votto has just been doing Votto all season long. You know as well as anyone there are slumps. He was in about a 6 week slump, spanning less than 200 PAs. It happens. You obviously have a ton of knowledge about the game and the org. I really enjoyed reading your recent posts, great info. But to sit there and claim he's now doing it when nothing is on the line and saying he's now hitting instead of looking for the walk is just ludicrous man.

I know you're not a stats guy, but I think you should check this out:

Walk rate by month of 2016 vs career average

Mar/April 2016 - 12.0% Career - 16.1%
May 2016 - 14.0% Career - 16.0%
June 2016 - 20.7% Career - 14.1%
July 2016 - 24.5% Career - 14.9%
August 2016 - 15.7% Career - 18.5%

His AVG/OBP/SLG split by month for 2016

Mar/April
.224/..320/.306

May
.200/.333/.484

June
.319/.466/.549

July
.413/.549/.627

August
.404/.486/.596

Now, BABIP. If you don't know what BABIP is, here ya go. If you do, disregard.

Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) measures how often a ball in play goes for a hit. A ball is “in play” when the plate appearance ends in something other than a strikeout, walk, hit batter, catcher’s interference, sacrifice bunt, or home run. In other words, the batter put the ball in play and it didn’t clear the outfield fence. Typically around 30% of all balls in play fall for hits, but there are several variables that can affect BABIP rates for individual players, such as defense, luck, and talent level. Hitters have more control over their BABIP than pitchers do and that lack of control for pitchers has lead to the creation of Defense Independent Pitching Statistics (DIPS).

BABIP | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

Votto's career BABIP is .358. Here are his BABIP splits by month for 2016.

Mar/April .274
May .222
June .375
July .491
August .440

So, what can we deduce from just the numbers? It looks like he was walking less early in the season than he normally does. As he began to walk more his AVG and power numbers increased. Early in the season his BABIP was much lower than his career numbers, so we were able to expect that the variance would eventually swing back in the positive direction, and it did.

I think it's very difficult to ignore these statistics when you can see the production of Votto broken down by month and how that correlates to these stats.

Btw, I keep seeing him hit HRs while choking up.

He's our best hitter, just embrace it and let go of the hate. :thumbsup:
 
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#11,619
#11,619
Votto sucks so bad. So many first baseman in the NL that are better. Ok he is decent but he isn't worth what we are paying him. He walks too much and doesn't slug enough. He is not clutch.


Joey Votto (@Reds): 3-4, 2B, 3B so far today.

Since the All-Star break Votto leads MLB in BA (.458), OBP (.553), SLG (.720) and OPS (1.274)
 
#11,620
#11,620
Sorry for the length, but we are gaining on this thing.

Really good post, Appy. Loved the work you put in. I look at stats and use them as tools, so I understand BAPIP. What my eyes tell me and my understanding of how the game is played overrules at times. I have a different take on the walking increasing the BA, although what you suggest could be a contributor. Mine relates to how he has changed his swing and regained his focus.

Going to start off with I agree - Votto is the best hitter on the team. The Votto of 2009-2011 was my idea of the perfect hitter (not complete player). My argument has never been that he is not the best hitter. My argument is that it has appeared that he only chooses to hit when he wants to hit - the head part of it. Or it may be the physically unable to perform like he did pre-injury part of it. He is experimenting, checks out mentally at times, etc. Maybe being on a bad team does that to a guy. The second half has been the old Joey with a new way of doing it. His focus has been spot on at the plate. I don't ever expect a guy to not have a slump, but I do expect him to do his job every game with focus (Patriots mentality). That is back big time and he truly cares about what is going on.

As to the mechanics. He has never choked up 3" on the bat with two strikes until the start of this season. He rarely choked up on the bat (lesser amount) with less than 2 strikes unless he felt he needed more bat speed in previous years. He does it all the time now and has changed his swing to a short chop with two strikes. He also has been willing to turn on it and pull the ball, which rarely happened his whole career. Even the analysts and bloggers noted it. That's what I meant by "experimenting" above. He may have found something to offset old man time and his weak knee. The interesting stat to show it is affecting his power is that he has now pulled enough HR's to RF with this adjustment to be fairly evenly split between all fields. JV's power in previous years was from center to left with only a few pulled. One more adjustment he made during the season to offset the shorter bat is he moved a little closer to the plate. Compare to previous seasons and he is a couple inches closer. A shorter bat is a quicker bat and with his strength and bat speed he can still hit with power reasonably well. Also being closer to the plate helps with being confident with knowing the strike zone once you have adjusted to it. Which leads to why he did not walk as much and struck out more in the first half. He needed to adjust to it. Whether the club approved of all this - I have no idea. They knew it was going to be a crap year so they may have approved it. If it had not worked in the second half he probably would have gone back to the old way next season. But it did work, which is a good thing for him, the team, and fans. I sincerely hope it continues as the team needs him to be the man again. Now that he is helping others and taking more of a leadership role it has to help their chances.

On other observation. In the first half he had Bruce and Duvall hitting in the next two slots behind him. Bruce was having a career first half (in the toilet now) and Duvall was having a monster first half that landed him on the AS team in his first full season. There was no pitching around JV to get to a lesser hitter. Yet, his BA/OBP/etc. were way down to career lows and he struck out more IIRC. Bruce gets traded, Duvall's power numbers decline - Votto starts hitting great in the second half. Guess it may just be coincidence, but he also turned it on in the second half last season when Frazier cooled off, who was hitting behind him. I have no idea why other than the mechanics discussion above for this season. Ordinarily it would mean he would be pitched around and his walks go up, but not his production and BA.

But, I will never be satisfied with any position player that is #20 out of 20 at DWAR that has played the position as long as JV. Maybe if he would attack this issue like he does the hitting it would improve to being adequate at least.

Billy is blowing MLB away with his steals per AB ratio. You are so right - if Votto had his speed or Billy had Votto's OBP - wow! This is what all of us hoped would happen with Billy. He needs to add some muscle in the off season and keep working on it. Again, I love seeing JV helping him and Scheb. That is good stuff. Billy lead off, Peraza in the 2 hole, and JV at #3 next season. That could be special. Have to believe Cozy is moved in the offseason. Suarez is heating up and hopefully can get his errors under control until Senzel arrives. I really don't see them bringing him up until some point in 2018 even though he is doing great.

Don't know if you saw or heard about the LAD game today. 18-9 and Gomer bombed out by the third inning. He is either very good or very bad at this point. $18 mill for a half season of that. lol.
 
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#11,621
#11,621
zjcvols said:
Man, I'm looking and Votto's 2010 season and man he couldn't handle the pressure when they won the division and he led the league in OPS
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2010 - really? lolololololol.

See above post to Appy. You might learn something. Or not.
 
#11,623
#11,623
He's been one of the best hitters of all time to this point in his career.

I'll take him on the Natinalz
 
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