Dow tops 14,000

#26
#26
volinbham said:
Do they say low confidence in the economy or lower confidence? There's a big difference between a change in sentiment and absolute sentiment.

The two most used indicators are the Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Confidence Index. Neither shows pessimism based on the index numbers. They have shown ups and downs but those ups and downs are around neutral to optimism levels on the index.

The 3 month moving average for the Sentiment Index shows 87.93 (March/April/May); 86.9 (April/May/June); 88.67 (May/June/July).

The CCI has bounced up and down around 105 (100 is the base line between optimism and pessimism) for the last 6 months at least.

There is a big difference between a change in sentiment (which is hard to track currently) and overall sentiment. Most of the news of June was about a change in sentiment compared to May.
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Well according to some on here these polls are worthless because they are small in scope. So let's drop down to wider ranging political polls on the opinions of the masses and pessimism is pretty consistent.
 
#28
#28
And again, it doesn't matter how high the DJ soars. The mood of the country does not match the numbers.
 
#29
#29
CSpindizzy said:
Well according to some on here these polls are worthless because they are small in scope. So let's drop down to wider ranging political polls on the opinions of the masses and pessimism is pretty consistent.
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IIRC - you brought up consumer sentiment.
 
#32
#32
Your fellow believer has already discounted that. He said it was small, insignificant, and not truly representative of a greater group. So that is why I mentioned the political ones....you know...the ones scattered all around the US in various ethnic, geographic, socio-economic? Go back and read the full thread?

:whistling:
 
#34
#34
CSpindizzy said:
Your fellow believer has already discounted that. He said it was small, insignificant, and not truly representative of a greater group. So that is why I mentioned the political ones....you know...the ones scattered all around the US in various ethnic, geographic, socio-economic? Go back and read the full thread?

:whistling:
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:lol: Good old Spin
 
#36
#36
GAVol said:
Here's a report on a Zogby poll that among other things indicates that people think the economy is in good shape.

Voters unhappy with Bush; Congress: Reuters poll - Yahoo! News
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I don't see that.

Americans also have little confidence in U.S. foreign and economic policy. Two-thirds of those surveyed, 66 percent, said the direction of economic policy was fair or poor, and 76 percent said U.S. foreign policy was headed in a fair or poor direction.

But on a personal level, Americans feel relatively secure and comfortable with their own finances and safety. Nearly 82 percent of Americans said they feel very or fairly safe from "threats from abroad," and nearly 70 percent feel very or fairly secure in their jobs.

Are you looking at the same thing I am? Secure in jobs and less than half being comfortable in their own finances are not relational to the economy being in good shape.
 
#37
#37
CSpindizzy said:
I don't see that.

Americans also have little confidence in U.S. foreign and economic policy. Two-thirds of those surveyed, 66 percent, said the direction of economic policy was fair or poor, and 76 percent said U.S. foreign policy was headed in a fair or poor direction.

But on a personal level, Americans feel relatively secure and comfortable with their own finances and safety. Nearly 82 percent of Americans said they feel very or fairly safe from "threats from abroad," and nearly 70 percent feel very or fairly secure in their jobs.

Are you looking at the same thing I am? Secure in jobs and less than half being comfortable in their own finances are not relational to the economy being in good shape.
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If people would quit spending 30-60% more than what they make in a year, then they would be more comfortable with things.
 
#38
#38
CSpindizzy said:
And again, it doesn't matter how high the DJ soars. The mood of the country does not match the numbers.
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the "mood" of the country? that's the silliest idea I've heard. Your polls tell you about moods, which are currently in flux. Forget about my inattentiveness to your drivel, your poll driven focus is like watching a 70s era ring that changed colors with body temps.
 
#39
#39
CSpindizzy said:
I don't see that.

Americans also have little confidence in U.S. foreign and economic policy. Two-thirds of those surveyed, 66 percent, said the direction of economic policy was fair or poor, and 76 percent said U.S. foreign policy was headed in a fair or poor direction.
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Here's the basis of the problem with your polling view. How many of those polled knew nothing of economic policy or foreign policy as it relates to the economy. The vast majority have no idea that a weak dollar is helping our economy immensely by making our exports more competitive, but would complain about economic policy. Most that participate in these these stupid polls who don't understand what they're being asked, turn the session into a referendum on the current administration. Hence, we get results that are massively skewed depending on the political views of the majority who were polled. That's fine for the political arena, but worthless vis a vis the economy.
 
#40
#40
CSpindizzy said:
Are you looking at the same thing I am? Secure in jobs and less than half being comfortable in their own finances are not relational to the economy being in good shape.
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...or you could reference this part of the article.

While 14 percent rated their personal financial situation as excellent and 10 percent as poor, the vast majority found themselves in the middle. About 43 percent rated their finances as good, and 43 percent as fair.
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Typical poll . . . You can get whatever result out of it that you want.
 
#41
#41
CSpindizzy said:
Not sure what that means but clearly you've missed the point repeatedly.
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Please pick a point - I'm sure I won't miss it if it stays constant. Please explain the point you are trying to make - clearly I haven't been able to follow it.

Do you contend that the American public feels (perceives) the economy is bad?
 
#42
#42
CSpindizzy said:
I don't see that.

Americans also have little confidence in U.S. foreign and economic policy. Two-thirds of those surveyed, 66 percent, said the direction of economic policy was fair or poor, and 76 percent said U.S. foreign policy was headed in a fair or poor direction.

But on a personal level, Americans feel relatively secure and comfortable with their own finances and safety. Nearly 82 percent of Americans said they feel very or fairly safe from "threats from abroad," and nearly 70 percent feel very or fairly secure in their jobs.

Are you looking at the same thing I am? Secure in jobs and less than half being comfortable in their own finances are not relational to the economy being in good shape.
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Is a view of economic policy the same as a view of the economy? (for example, isn't the CSI or CCI a more direct measure of the public's view of the economy?)

Isn't 70% considered a super majority (or more)? What number would you consider to be positive for this measure and how did you determine that? (my reading says the vast majority of the country feels secure in there job). Is this a historically high, low or average number?
 
#43
#43
volinbham said:
Please pick a point - I'm sure I won't miss it if it stays constant. Please explain the point you are trying to make - clearly I haven't been able to follow it.

Do you contend that the American public feels (perceives) the economy is bad?
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I've picked a point. It's stayed constant. Actually in a few separate threads I've kept the same point. Not sure why it has been so hard to follow.
 
#44
#44
volinbham said:
Is a view of economic policy the same as a view of the economy? (for example, isn't the CSI or CCI a more direct measure of the public's view of the economy?)

Isn't 70% considered a super majority (or more)? What number would you consider to be positive for this measure and how did you determine that? (my reading says the vast majority of the country feels secure in there job). Is this a historically high, low or average number?
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Secure in your job....how does that relate to the overall view of the economy? I feel very secure in my job but I feel the pinch on higher gas prices, higher grocery prices, seeing more houses get foreclosed on, housing prices drop, others getting laid off, etc. Just because I feel like my position is safe doesn't mean I feel the economy is safe or as good of shape.

I'm sure there are people in Detroit who feel safe in their job but after seeing friends and family get laid off and other major areas of the economy around them they feel the economy is not as rosy as some paint it out.
 
#45
#45
As for the CSI or CCI, we've already argued that. Read earlier posts. Someone else has made the argument that those are not accurate and only sample a small amount scattered all over the US and are not truly representative. THUS the comment by me about looking at other political polls that are targeted over smaller areas all over the country and are including areas not covered by the CCI and CSI.
 
#46
#46
CSpindizzy said:
As for the CSI or CCI, we've already argued that. Read earlier posts. Someone else has made the argument that those are not accurate and only sample a small amount scattered all over the US and are not truly representative. THUS the comment by me about looking at other political polls that are targeted over smaller areas all over the country and are including areas not covered by the CCI and CSI.
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Do you think CSI and CCI are accurate indicators of the the public's view of the economy? (consumer sentiment to use your words) You seemed to defend these measures in another thread but now deflect them by saying someone else in the thread doesn't believe they are representative. What's your view?

You refer to these "polls" yet present no findings from them representing consumer sentiment about the economy - you posted and highlighted views from a poll about economic policy, foreign policy (for some odd reason) and job security. Now you say job security doesn't relate to an overall view of the economy (which puzzles me since you posted it presumably to support your point).

I'll ask again. What do these polls you draw from indicate about people's view of the economy? (since that was the jumping off point in this thread).
 
#47
#47
I used them as examples in a previous thread. Someone else discounted those so I suggested looking at others that are more widespread and offer more fine-tuned viewpoints.

Clearly you missed where GAVOL posted this poll from Zogby and he referenced where people think the economy is in good shape. I highlighted the job security reference and stated that this is not indicative of people saying the economy was in good shape. GAVOL used these points to show the people said the economy was in good shape. I pointed out that was an assumption and NOT the case. The poll does NOT show people feel the economy is in good shape.

Please go back and read the thread. Clearly you are not following the discussion.
 
#48
#48
CSpindizzy said:
I used them as examples in a previous thread. Someone else discounted those so I suggested looking at others that are more widespread and offer more fine-tuned viewpoints.

Clearly you missed where GAVOL posted this poll from Zogby and he referenced where people think the economy is in good shape. I highlighted the job security reference and stated that this is not indicative of people saying the economy was in good shape. GAVOL used these points to show the people said the economy was in good shape. I pointed out that was an assumption and NOT the case. The poll does NOT show people feel the economy is in good shape.

Please go back and read the thread. Clearly you are not following the discussion.
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In other words, you can use the poll to make a point, but if I use the poll, it's an assumption.

I'm not even arguing the point that a majority of the respondents don't perceive a good economy. I'm just saying that within the same poll where they dog the economy, their answers to personal questions indicate that things are going better for a lot of them than they are admitting.
 
#49
#49
CSpindizzy said:
Markets are up. Consumer sentiment is down. Someone didn't get the memo.
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CSpindizzy said:
I used them as examples in a previous thread. Someone else discounted those so I suggested looking at others that are more widespread and offer more fine-tuned viewpoints.



Please go back and read the thread. Clearly you are not following the discussion.
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I've been trying to follow this specific contention made by you - "consumer sentiment is down". The Consumer Sentiment Index says it's up. You seem to suggest other polls indeed say consumer sentiment is down yet you've shown no poll results to suggest that. Further, these mystery poll results are now claimed to offer more fine-tuned viewpoints :ermm:.
 
#50
#50
GAVol said:
In other words, you can use the poll to make a point, but if I use the poll, it's an assumption.

I'm not even arguing the point that a majority of the respondents don't perceive a good economy. I'm just saying that within the same poll where they dog the economy, their answers to personal questions indicate that things are going better for a lot of them than they are admitting.
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Wrong. Let me ask you this. You made the statement that this poll says people think the economy is strong. How did you come to that conclusion? You are saying that just because someone feels secure in their own job that the economy is strong? Or that THINGS are going better? Somehow them having a job but still having a tough time paying bills and for higher goods doesn't translate to them saying strong economy.

I'm not saying anything about the poll but your conclusion that job security translates to feelings of a strong economy.
 
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