Dow tops 14,000

#101
#101
Fair enough, explain for me why the recently released consumer confidence index was so high relative to the last (which was the topic)? I've been arguing that the CCI is meaningless drivel and you the opposite. Such a good indicator of the aggregate opinion of the nation should not be so topsy turvy, yet amazingly, it is. What gives?
 
#102
#102
I say the opposite? I've said it is a perspective on those polled. And it is. A few have said it is meaningless or not representative of the nation. I merely suggested looking at smaller polls within certain regions. Since economics is regional, you can look at polls, say Congressional polls, to get a better gauge on how things are in states or metro areas.

I've consistently said this is nothing but perspective. Feel free to go back and check. I never said it was a scientific gauge of the true nature of the economy. You've implied I've stated otherwise. So please tell me where I did. If I did I will apologize and take my statement above as my feelings. Without checking first, I believe I said something to the effect that this poll is not even accurate on the matters such as selecting 5000 from various regions and economic backgrounds and situations. I'd say if anything, I've leaned on your side of the argument.
 
#103
#103
What good is it to tell me that it is reflective of the opinions of those polled? No kidding. This might surprise you, but you need not tell me that.

I've been arguing that the CCI isn't even a good indicatorof the views of those polled because of the nature of the questions and the fact that those answering do so from a political point of view.
 
#104
#104
CSpindizzy said:
I say the opposite? I've said it is a perspective on those polled. And it is. A few have said it is meaningless or not representative of the nation. I merely suggested looking at smaller polls within certain regions. Since economics is regional, you can look at polls, say Congressional polls, to get a better gauge on how things are in states or metro areas.

I've consistently said this is nothing but perspective. Feel free to go back and check. I never said it was a scientific gauge of the true nature of the economy. You've implied I've stated otherwise. So please tell me where I did. If I did I will apologize and take my statement above as my feelings. Without checking first, I believe I said something to the effect that this poll is not even accurate on the matters such as selecting 5000 from various regions and economic backgrounds and situations. I'd say if anything, I've leaned on your side of the argument.
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your debates with myself and volinbham sounded very different to me
 
#105
#105
Going back to the original issue - it appears that while the market was hitting 14,000 consumer sentiment was actually up.

These national measures of "perception" were all higher at the time of the Dow record. I didn't see regional polls but these national polls are the best measure of the perception of the aggregate nation at the time.
 
#106
#106
volinbham said:
Going back to the original issue - it appears that while the market was hitting 14,000 consumer sentiment was actually up.

These national measures of "perception" were all higher at the time of the Dow record. I didn't see regional polls but these national polls are the best measure of the perception of the aggregate nation at the time.
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Most recent poll was way up, as were the indices, but subprime overhang was getting worse, rates up, fuel high, personal discretionary cash dwindling. Why would CCI come out so high right now?
 
#107
#107
BigPapaVol said:
What good is it to tell me that it is reflective of the opinions of those polled? No kidding. This might surprise you, but you need not tell me that.
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Well first of all I wasn't directing the original comment to you personally. The discussion was on whether it was representative nationwide and thus accurate nationwide or even what it said about those polled. I argued against the accuracy of this as applied to the nation as a whole.
 
#108
#108
BigPapaVol said:
your debates with myself and volinbham sounded very different to me
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Well the debates with you have been me telling you to go back and read my posts and that you're not understanding what I was saying. As I've said before feel free to go back and quote me if you think I'm wrong. If I am I will apologize. But don't say I'm wrong and then not back that up. THAT has been the reason you and I have butted heads.
 
#109
#109
BigPapaVol said:
Most recent poll was way up, as were the indices, but subprime overhang was getting worse, rates up, fuel high, personal discretionary cash dwindling. Why would CCI come out so high right now?
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As CS indicates, it is a measure of how people feel about the economy. It is completely dependent on how much the average Joe knows about the workings of the economy including the subprime rate, etc. etc.
 
#110
#110
The indices are also lagging indicators. The CCI just released shows perceptions of late June/mid July. The CSI was more of a June/early July snapshot.
 
#111
#111
volinbham said:
Going back to the original issue - it appears that while the market was hitting 14,000 consumer sentiment was actually up.

These national measures of "perception" were all higher at the time of the Dow record. I didn't see regional polls but these national polls are the best measure of the perception of the aggregate nation at the time.
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But again keep in mind that selecting 5,000 people from various areas involves looking at the local conditions. Poll Detroit and people are probably suicidal on perception of the economy. Poll Atlanta and the numbers are much higher. It's the luck of the draw with 5,000 people and where they are located. Pick another random 5,000 people and the numbers will no doubt be different. And I think we're in agreement that depending on the news, these numbers will change as well. Right after the 'plunge' and high gas prices they probably dropped a bit. They might have surged due to a drop in gas prices at that time and the increase in the minimum wage as well. I think this poll might be a little more accurate if more detailed questions were asked on perception.
 
#112
#112
Yes but you can't make a blanket statement that consumer sentiment is down then ignore national polling that says otherwise.

Regional conditions will vary but presumably when aggregated they will point to the same conclusion as the national data. Otherwise there is a measurement problem.

Finally, sampling theory says that picking another 5000 and the results will be the same not different. It's not a luck of the draw issue - proper sampling techniques take the luck of the draw issue out.
 
#113
#113
Who made a blanket statement when polling said otherwise? When I made my comment I said it was down and it was. I remember even posting poll data showing so.

No matter what sampling techniques you use there will be issues and discrepancy on economic polling. I don't care how good of a pollster you are. You take data and each time you pull you will get varying results. In pulling 5,000 you will get some balance in rural areas, some in suburban areas, and some in urban areas. Since the data pulled will revolve you may get people in a metro area one time that their situation is much better than someone in the similar geographic area but on the other side of town.
 
#114
#114
I'm not going on a trip with you on this one. I'll just say this. Since the polling data is lagging and collected at one point in time but reported at another, current polling from CCI and CSI show sentiment up at the time of this thread beginning and the Dow #'s. Your data was reflecting a past condition rather than current condition.

Overall, I don't have much faith in a single data point hence my repeated claim that there's not much we can really say about consumer sentiment. It is up and down month to month.

Of course there will discrepancies in economic polling but the question is are they material differences. Proper random sampling techniques and proper sample sizes minimize these differences. If they did not, all polling would be meaningless. This is particularly true in looking at trend data. We can have no faith in a trend if we can't be assured differences observed are a result of real change in what is being measured vs. sampling error.
 
#115
#115
How can you say it shows sentiment up at the thread beginning? If the data I posted was old and this thread started after that, how can you say it was up? What I posted was the most recent at that time and it was trending down. It NOW is up from the most recent polling compared to last results.

Yes it is up and down month to month. But when you look at the overall trend it is down.
 
#116
#116
Conference Board CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX conducted by TNS(methodology)
.​
Consumer
Confidence Index(1985=100)
Present
Situation Index
Expectations
Index​
.​
July 2007 *112.6139.294.8June 2007 **105.3129.988.8May 2007108.5136.190.1April 2007106.3133.588.2March 2007108.2138.587.9Feb. 2007111.2137.193.8Jan. 2007110.2133.994.4Dec. 2006110.0130.596.3
 
#117
#117
CSpindizzy said:
How can you say it shows sentiment up at the thread beginning? If the data I posted was old and this thread started after that, how can you say it was up? What I posted was the most recent at that time and it was trending down. It NOW is up from the most recent polling compared to last results.

Yes it is up and down month to month. But when you look at the overall trend it is down.
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The CSI data came out at the same time as this thread. It was the most recent data available and showed a large and unexpected jump. Even it was dated but it was the most recent data comparing the most recent time period.

CCI numbers at the time were dated (and the new numbers were being generated at the time) and the Gallup data was dated but showed an upward move in the current conditions portion of the poll IIRC.

As for the trend - it depends on where you set the time markers. As I showed much earlier in this thread, a 3-month moving average of the CSI didn't show an up or down trend. My guess is using the current CCI, you will see the same.

These measures show what the perception was at a given time. The CCI just released shows what sentiment was not is. In other words, you have to wait to find out what consumer sentiment was at the time of the event (DJIA 14000). The CSI number was close time wise and the CCI number covers that time period. This becomes increasingly relevant as we both acknowledge the role of media coverage of the economy.
 
#118
#118
Let's see. The post started on the 17th. The latest release was not until July 31. So as I stated, the post began based on June's report which said something to the effect of a 5 or 6 month low.

Consumer Confidence Index - The Conference Board

Just go back to the above post referencing the readings since December of 2006. Look at December's numbers and look at June's numbers. Tell me what each was. Look in between. Tell me which direction the pattern is.
 
#119
#119
CSpindizzy said:
Let's see. The post started on the 17th. The latest release was not until July 31. So as I stated, the post began based on June's report which said something to the effect of a 5 or 6 month low.
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But those were numbers for mid-June. Clearly the numbers for mid-July (which reflect sentiment at that time) tell a different story.

The CSI numbers released the day of the 14K mark were for late June and they showed the same bump we currently see in the CCI. late May/early June was down; late June/early July was up.
 
#120
#120
CSpindizzy said:
Consumer Confidence Index - The Conference Board

Just go back to the above post referencing the readings since December of 2006. Look at December's numbers and look at June's numbers. Tell me what each was. Look in between. Tell me which direction the pattern is.
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I see 4 months with increases and 3 months with decreases. I see a higher finishing point than starting point and I see 4 directional changes. The last point is key and brings into question any conclusion of a trend. The numbers changed direction (up/down) 4 times over a total of 7 observations.
 
#121
#121
So what are you saying is more accurate? CCI or CSI? Because CCI shows a historical downward trend with July's report going up and CSI is all over the map.
 
#122
#122
volinbham said:
I see 4 months with increases and 3 months with decreases. I see a higher finishing point than starting point and I see 4 directional changes. The last point is key and brings into question any conclusion of a trend. The numbers changed direction (up/down) 4 times over a total of 7 observations.
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Graph them. I see three months of hovering close and then a 4th month dropping three, then dropping two, gaining two, dropping three. I see consistent drop average and one last uptick. One uptick does not indicate a trend.
 
#123
#123
CSpindizzy said:
So what are you saying is more accurate? CCI or CSI? Because CCI shows a historical downward trend with July's report going up and CSI is all over the map.
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CSpindizzy said:
Graph them. I see three months of hovering close and then a 4th month dropping three, then dropping two, gaining two, dropping three. I see consistent drop average and one last uptick. One uptick does not indicate a trend.
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I'm not claiming either is more accurate. I am claiming that both showed a rise in consumer sentiment either during the time (CCI) or just before (CSI) DJIA 14K. These 2 were the most time accurate measures.

I don't have to graph them since the handy dandy link you provided has the graph. 2 ups, 2 downs, 1 up, 1 down, 1 up. Some trend.

You suggest one uptick does not indicate a trend - I agree. How many does it take?

Last 2 - 1 down, 1 up
Last 3 - 1 up, 1 down, 1 up
Last 4 - 1 down, 1 up, 1 down, 1 up

Etc. These numbers are not indicative a trend downwards particularly if you factor in the time period for which the claim was made.
 
#124
#124
Again, overall trend. Graph them. Up and down means nothing. Right before this uptick what was the number? Go back 6 months and what was the number. No matter how hard you try to spin it the overall trend is down. The stock market can drop 500 points over a period of months and small 5-10 point upticks here and there still show a downward trend. None of those upticks above carried it back over the highest point months ago. It was still below the 6 month high.
 
#125
#125
CSpindizzy said:
Again, overall trend. Graph them. Up and down means nothing. Right before this uptick what was the number? Go back 6 months and what was the number. No matter how hard you try to spin it the overall trend is down. The stock market can drop 500 points over a period of months and small 5-10 point upticks here and there still show a downward trend. None of those upticks above carried it back over the highest point months ago. It was still below the 6 month high.
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We are talking about the CCI data you posted right?

The latest reading took it above the Dec. levels.

During the time period the current reading (July) is the highest shown (and highest since 2001).

You are seeing things in that graph that no statistician would see.

up/down wouldn't matter if the ending point were consistently lower than the beginning point but it is not.
 
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